In response to post #15138830.
Ok the formula is kind of complicated due to the number of variables I am allowing myself to account for. Most of the below is based on the player using the normal difficulty. Bear in mind all of this is open for alteration and is currently just what I'm working with.
This is the sum:
ActualChance = (BaseChance + NightBonus() + SnowingBonus() + WornBonus() + RegionExpertBonus() + TrapHiddenBonus())
Base chance is currently set to 20% (this may change), so regardless of anything else, 1 in 5 traps are successful.
Trapping skill is added to the base chance using the formula (Trapping Skill * 0.4). This isn't much, a skill of 10 only adds an extra 4% chance to the base.
Trap Quality is added to the chance as follows:
Novice Trap, adds 5% to chance
Apprentice's Trap, adds 8% to chance
Journeyman's Trap, adds 13% to chance
Master's Trap, adds 18% to chance
So without any bonus modifiers at all, a level 0 trapper using a novice trap has a 25% chance of success. A level 30 trapper using a journeyman trap has a 45% chance of success. There are a number of ways you can improve this chance using what I call Bonus Modifiers. Unlike the main chance deciders of Base chance, Skill, and Trap Quality, they do not add directly to the actual chance; they are calculated off of it. For example trapping when night is coming gives you your Base Chance + 20% extra, which if your Base Chance was 30, your chance would become 36%. The following bonuses apply:
BONUS MODIFIERS
Each bonus modifier is calculated relative to the base chance level.
Night time = Base chance + 20%; Trapping when night is coming.
Snowing = Base chance + 10%; Trapping when it is snowing/in a snowy area, animals less likely to see it.
Worn = Base chance + Worn bonus %; Talismans and other such enchantments will be made, adding a maximum of 5% bonus.
RegionExpert = Base chance + 10%; If you have succesfully trapped 10 or more animals in a region, you get a 10% bonus.
TrapHiddenBonus = Base chance + 5%; In certain areas you will be able to cover up your trap with snow or leaves, adding a 5% bonus.
So if you were a level 30 trapper using a journeyman trap (45%), in the snow (45 * 0.1 = 4.5%), hide your trap (45 * 0.05 = 2.25%), and your an expert trapper in that region (45 * 0.1 = 4.5) your actual chance of success would be 56.25%, rounded down to the nearest whole number; 56%.
Difficulty changes your final chance of success, however all of the above calculations are carried out. On easy, your final chance is multiplied by 1.5, meaning if you had the above 56% chance, that would become 84%. On hard the difficulty is cut in half (multiplied by 0.5) so 56% would become 28%.
This is just the calculation of whether or not the trap would work. Bait decides whether you actually trap an animal.
Edited by B1gBadDaddy, 29 May 2014 - 08:28 PM.