32 replies to this topic

[Klipperken]

I'm sure they will release one soon.
Probably within the next 30 years, even...

[brokenergy]

You mean 6-9 months (that's how long it took to make the Origins tool-set after Origins was finished for PC)

[Thandal]

... I personally ever since NWN one refrain from purchasing an RPG without some form of editor. I'll still try the game through other means and may even eventually buy it, But what is being stated here would suggest that I'm the only one here that is influenced in this way, sorry not bloody likely. So if whats being said is true another 5000 or 10,000 people that feel the way I do doesn't effects sales? Sorry thats a thought I won't be subscribing to either.

Biasly yours, Elan Marshall

(If you simply meant, "give it a go on a friend's rig", you might have said that. Your phrasing here seems... interesting, to say the least. )

But be that as it may...

The question under discussion is whether or not the existence of a robust modding community has an appreciable impact (positive or negative) on the overall sales of a game and any associated DLC, and to what degree a developer-created Toolset matters.

In this case, you appear to be saying, "If it's not moddable in the way I want it to be, I won't buy it." Which is a totally understandable position. In the company-consumer relationship, consumers can really only "vote" with their purchase decisions.

So; given that there is some number of potential consumers who feel as you do, (and who really behave accordingly, which is a more nuanced issue. You really don't buy any games that you can't mod?) does any profit that could have been realized from that number of "lost" sales represent more or less than the amount of investment required to produce (and potentially maintain) a Toolset? And what other costs and benefits (tangible and intangible) might be associated with doing so?

And; given that there is almost no way to quantify both the costs and the benefits completely accurately, we all tend to see the situation wearing a set of "what would be best/easiest for me?" goggles.

Here's some "back of the envelope" caclulations to give some idea of what's involved:

Spoiler

Source: Wikipedia article - Video game development"
...In 2005 a mainstream console video game cost from US$3M to $6M to develop. Some games cost as much as $20M to develop...

In 2008 a developer would retain around 17% of retail price and around 85% if sold online.

Whether or not those figures are "correct", they give a framework for the discussion.

If we give DA2 a development + marketing cost of a middle-to-high value of $10M, and if we use an avg. retail price of $50, then that equals $8.50 to the publisher/developer. (For digital sales on the EA Store, avg. $50 = $42.50 retained.)

Average Developer Employment Costs (Salary + Benefits + Employer Taxes, etc.): $40/hr. (This is a low estimate. Total labor costs are usually from 2.0 to 2.5 times salary.)

Combining those general figures and VG's data on DA2 sales through Week-7, we get the following picture:

Avg. Price $50
Total Sales 1,278,713 (all platforms, world-wide except Japan)
Gross $63,935,650
EA Revenue $10,869,061 (17%)
Cost $10,000,000 (est. for 2011 major release from major publisher)
Profit $869,061
Margin 8.69%

Profit/Unit $4.35

So to just to break-even there would need to be about 10 ADDITIONAL retail sales, (or about two via the EA Store) to people who otherwise would not have bought the game at all, for every HOUR needed to produce a Toolset. And that's if we use high sale price and low labor cost estimates. If those particular players wait for a Weekend Special on the EA Store, or the Toolset update takes a senior coder (or two) to properly handle the effort, then it could easily need twice as many additional sales.

And while the cost side can be well documented (internally) by the developer, the "additional" sales side can't. That part is still all guess, and feeling, and seeing what one wants/expects to see.

[Lehcar]

Well, I have made a few very simple 3D games by myself with free programs and no help, though I have to put much emphasis on the word simple. Just run and jump maze type games.

I still say that a modding tool and a healthy modding community will definitely help boost the popularity of their games and help sales. I'm positive it will be really good help for DA2.

Edited by Lehcar, 05 May 2011 - 04:17 PM.

[EMarshall]

... I personally ever since NWN one refrain from purchasing an RPG without some form of editor. I'll still try the game through other means and may even eventually buy it, But what is being stated here would suggest that I'm the only one here that is influenced in this way, sorry not bloody likely. So if whats being said is true another 5000 or 10,000 people that feel the way I do doesn't effects sales? Sorry thats a thought I won't be subscribing to either.

Biasly yours, Elan Marshall

(If you simply meant, "give it a go on a friend's rig", you might have said that. Your phrasing here seems... interesting, to say the least. )

But be that as it may...

The question under discussion is whether or not the existence of a robust modding community has an appreciable impact (positive or negative) on the overall sales of a game and any associated DLC, and to what degree a developer-created Toolset matters.

In this case, you appear to be saying, "If it's not moddable in the way I want it to be, I won't buy it." Which is a totally understandable position. In the company-consumer relationship, consumers can really only "vote" with their purchase decisions.

So; given that there is some number of potential consumers who feel as you do, (and who really behave accordingly, which is a more nuanced issue. You really don't buy any games that you can't mod?) does any profit that could have been realized from that number of "lost" sales represent more or less than the amount of investment required to produce (and potentially maintain) a Toolset? And what other costs and benefits (tangible and intangible) might be associated with doing so?

And; given that there is almost no way to quantify both the costs and the benefits completely accurately, we all tend to see the situation wearing a set of "what would be best/easiest for me?" goggles.

Here's some "back of the envelope" caclulations to give some idea of what's involved:

Spoiler

Source: Wikipedia article - Video game development"
...In 2005 a mainstream console video game cost from US$3M to $6M to develop. Some games cost as much as $20M to develop...

In 2008 a developer would retain around 17% of retail price and around 85% if sold online.

Whether or not those figures are "correct", they give a framework for the discussion.

If we give DA2 a development + marketing cost of a middle-to-high value of $10M, and if we use an avg. retail price of $50, then that equals $8.50 to the publisher/developer. (For digital sales on the EA Store, avg. $50 = $42.50 retained.)

Average Developer Employment Costs (Salary + Benefits + Employer Taxes, etc.): $40/hr. (This is a low estimate. Total labor costs are usually from 2.0 to 2.5 times salary.)

Combining those general figures and VG's data on DA2 sales through Week-7, we get the following picture:

Avg. Price $50
Total Sales 1,278,713 (all platforms, world-wide except Japan)
Gross $63,935,650
EA Revenue $10,869,061 (17%)
Cost $10,000,000 (est. for 2011 major release from major publisher)
Profit $869,061
Margin 8.69%

Profit/Unit $4.35

So to just to break-even there would need to be about 10 ADDITIONAL retail sales, (or about two via the EA Store) to people who otherwise would not have bought the game at all, for every HOUR needed to produce a Toolset. And that's if we use high sale price and low labor cost estimates. If those particular players wait for a Weekend Special on the EA Store, or the Toolset update takes a senior coder (or two) to properly handle the effort, then it could easily need twice as many additional sales.

And while the cost side can be well documented (internally) by the developer, the "additional" sales side can't. That part is still all guess, and feeling, and seeing what one wants/expects to see.

I spend considerably more time playing an RPG than any other game type and enjoy the builder side of them, Thats why if they don't have some tools readily available out of the box I generaly won't consider them. most other genre I play it through and shelf it cause the appeal is pretty much spent after the first run.

As for the rest of what we're discussing,It's pretty obvious you have a large understanding of the industry, I see where this side of it has an effect on company profits due to wages and other internal costs. which influences what is implemented in the game and it's mechanics, If you have explained sales outcome or lack thereof I have missed it and will agree to disagree. The breakdown of developer/publishing cost was informative, however thanks for that. I had no idea how much was actually being spent on franchise titles these days till now.

[Tikkidew]

And while the cost side can be well documented (internally) by the developer, the "additional" sales side can't. That part is still all guess, and feeling, and seeing what one wants/expects to see.

I'd love to know the revenue generated by STEAM sales. Personally, I have a tendency to splurge when I brows the Steam store. I've been splurging all week with the big EA sale that's been going on. As usual the prices have been absurd .. in the good way. Physical media is nice, but if the developers can make more from on-line sales and it helps Windows and Mac gaming flourish, I'm all for it. Only problem, Steam is a Monopoly in the making ... I know that's blasphemy, but you can't argue with the logic.

Sorry for going off topic.

I just would like to throw this food for thought out there. Counter Strike, which is a very popular game, originated from a Half-life mod. Another popular game called "Defense of the Ancients" was a Warcraft III mod ... it's now set to be released by Valve as a retail game. Valve also releases community made maps as official DLC. Even Blizzard has incorporated many of the user made UI mods for WoW into their game.

To be honest, some of the Mods I've seen on Nexus for Oblivion and DA:O are supirior to some of the official retail DLC I've seen. I'd pay for them! Mods are the best part of PC gaming.

[Thandal]

My only reasons for bringing the economics of the issue into the discussion were:

a) To remind people that there ARE economic considerations involved. Just because we, or even the developers, want something doesn't mean it's going to happen. and;

b) To point out that NO ONE KNOWS if a toolset is worth the cost. Not us (the community), not BioWare, and not EA. Too many variables in a relatively immature industry and marketplace with only partial comparables to use as a way to estimate ROI. From a business perspective, it falls totally in the "building goodwill/customer relationship, intangible value" quadrant.

Personally, I believe the BioWare devs when they say they would like to update the toolset, and that there is interest at the DA2 project-team level in doing so. So I hope and expect that there'll be something within 6-8 months of release (so Sep-Dec period.) But I don't have a crystal ball. And neither the decision to do it, (nor the work itself) are as simple as some seem to think.

[Tikkidew]

Personally, I believe the BioWare devs when they say they would like to update the toolset, and that there is interest at the DA2 project-team level in doing so.

That is good enough for me

[Tair]

It's a shame that the impact of mods on DLC sales is not an identifiable metric. Given the thousands of mod downloads on Nexus, it's not a stretch to assume that these mods dramatically improve or even retain replay value. Irregardless of the percentage of total buyers you're looking at, improved conversion is improved conversion.

The real problem is that modding is severely marginalized: only a portion of players use a platform that can be modded, and yet a smaller portion of them are aware that it's possible.

Edited by Tair, 06 May 2011 - 04:47 AM.

[Klipperken]

You mean 6-9 months (that's how long it took to make the Origins tool-set after Origins was finished for PC)

Isn't that within the next 30 years?