This. Squared.The Empire all the Empire supporters wants to survive already crashed and burned 200 years ago.
The Nords, being traditionalists, seem slow to recognize change in others. I don't know how many times I wanted to just grab Balgruuf and shake him to get him to see that the Empire he describes exists only in his mind, not in reality. The ties of kinship and shared history that existed between the Empire and Skyrim during the Septim dynasty are long gone.
Following the end of the Septim dynasty, Cyrodiil was consumed with internal problems because of the need to resolve the succession. I believe this internal focus made them parochial, costing them a cosmopolitan understanding of the rest of the Empire. The other provinces were cast adrift to deal with their own problems over the last 200 years, which eventually led to the nearly-uncontested loss of Elsweyr and Valenwood. The modern Empire seems to regard all other provinces, not just Skyrim, as being uncivilized and on the brink of barbarism and chaos. Tullius will certainly tell you so, and it is clear from the first conversation that you hear between him and Rikka that he has no respect for Nord ways or their political system, though it has been functioning pretty well for over 2,000 years as three empires came and went. Even the guards in the various holds will comment that "the Empire thinks we are all lawless beasts." Did the Septims think so? I doubt it. The Empire has become insular and arrogant.
So, now we have a Cyrodiil that is undoubtedly riddled with Thalmor "observers" and "advisors" who are really spies and political control officers. The Empire can't build any strength outside the awareness of the Dominion, who will be prepared to counter it. The Empire has lost their premier intelligence/covert-ops group, the Blades, so they are left in the dark about what is happening in the Dominion. The Thalmor parading around Understone Keep openly brag about having complete control over the Empire. Cyrodiil is a Dominion client state in all but name. How are they going to free themselves from that?
The modern Empire also bleeds its outlands of manpower and resources while providing little or nothing in return. It is even prepared to steal those resources, sending agents like Margret out to get the job done. The corruption of the Silver-Bloods is outrageous, but is not the corruption of the Empire equally outrageous? They weren't satisfied with just a cut of the output of Cidhna Mine, they wanted it all even if they had to assassinate the owner and steal the deed. If they had succeeded, does anyone really think they would make any changes in the manner of obtaining the labor for the mine? Does anyone think they would implement some enlightened reforms in prisoner treatment? Now who are the lawless beasts?
Having cemented their control over the heart of the Empire, the Dominion is now making inroads into Skyrim. As the story opens, this process has only recently begun. It hasn't gone very far yet -- an embassy and remote fortress in Haafinger, a few troops parading around Markarth's palace, an "advisor" in the College of Winterhold, and some roving patrols on the roads -- but it certainly won't stop there. They are already recruiting Nord informants like Gissur. This process will eventually lead to the ills of a police state. Want to get rid of a business rival? Having a property dispute with a neighbor? Angry with someone over an insult? Tell the Thalmor that he worships Talos and watch them drag him away. Neighbor won't be able to trust neighbor. Skyrim will be demoralized and unable to organize any viable resistance.
(Balgruuf's main problem, I think, is that he hasn't had any first hand experience with the havoc the Thalmor are causing. He hasn't seen their torture dungeons in Northwatch Keep or the justiciar parade in Understone Keep. He is probably unaware of the existential disaster almost caused by Ancano, as the College seems to have kept it quiet even from the guards who seem to know everything else you've ever done. The people of Whiterun have mostly escaped these kinds of abuses and he is discounting the possibility. It Can't Happen Here. But it can. How long before the Thalmor find out about a statue of Talos sitting out in the open and a priest of Talos allowed to rant openly in front of it? It's a miracle that they haven't heard of it already. All it would take is one Thalmor sycophant like Gissur to drop the dime, but Balgruuf doesn't seem to realize the peril. However, I digress.)
Honestly, an independent Skyrim seems like the best hope of countering the Thalmor, but only if they act now. A rebellion is not only the best hope for Skyrim, but for the Empire as well in the long run. Sticking with the Empire means going down with it. Remember how Jarl Igmund is always denying that the Forsworn can get into the city, and his uncle is always trying to point out that they are already there? Rikka is like that as well, continually saying that the Empire is the only hope of keeping the Thalmor out of Skyrim. But, as I look around, it seems to me that they are already there and Rikka is in complete denial.



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