Realism Discussion

[RipperNyght]

Wouldn't 200 years be enought time to build up society. Looks to me that people havn't done anything in the past 200 years.

You are right at this point, but look at america and the society we put together between 1776 and 1976. The problem in the FO3 universe is the BoS, Outcasts, and Enclave. The ones with all the resources and tech want to horde it and keep it to themselves, not help rebuild America like the Enclave claims it wants to do. So with all the self indulgent jerks in the game universe the regular people have to try and make it on their own with now REAL government to back them up like it was in 1776 to actually rebuild things. Yes BoS in DC wants to help but the actual west coast BoS is no better then the Outcasts. One small contingent isn't going to change the country.

[butanokaabii]

Wait a second, aren't there already lasers of visibly high intensity right now? I've seen some laser that have a visible beam. Most were green though, so maybe that's part the reason why. If they're strong enough to roast enemies to a crisp, I suppose they should be intense enough to be seen.

[csb]

There are Oblivion mods that add cities into the worldspace. It could be done with Fallout3 as well. Both camps have valid arguments in this. Yes, adding the cities/settlements to the worldspace increases immersion and realism. But on the flip side, from the developers' standpoint, separating them from the worldspace takes a huge load off of memory usage, etc. ... and (okay laugh along as I type this) make the world more stable.

 

A high-end system with a lot of RAM ... yes, it would be nice to have the cities as "part of the world" (i.e., no transition). But not everyone has a high-end system, so you recognize the commercial reality of that and accept it for what it is -- Bethesda has every right to target as large an audience as they can.

[spammster]

well time for my 2 cents (I do study nuclear chemistry, so I do have some kind of concept about radiactivity and real life effects)

 

Lets start with this:

 

It plays in the 50's in an alternative reality, where fission technology is broadly available and used in every day technology (cars etc.)

 

so the most likely used element for this is uranium (assuming that the fallout earth is somewhat simmilar to ours in elemental makeup) simply because its cheap and we got plenty of it.

 

Looking at the scale of destruction, the nukes must have been dropped in a clearly designed pattern for max. destruction (given the usage of fission technology everywhere, its not that far fetched to assume that more than 100.000 nukes existed or could at least be easily manufactured in a short period of time).

 

now lets continue with what an explsoion actually causes (all of the things listed happen, however the affected area depends on the size of the warhead)

 

1: the explosion itself would cause a crater of quite some extent if detonated on the ground, since there are no noticable craters in fallout 3 that have been caused by nukes, it is fair to assume that we deal with warheads that mostly have been detonated above ground.

 

2: the blast zone: for an average sized warhead (by our standards) it would approx. be 10 miles divided in 3 zones

Zone 1: the direct hitzone, everything in it will be destroyed within splitseconds (damage here is done by the pure pressure buildup (shockwave) from the blast and not so much the temperature), there will be nothing left in this area, these areas could be defined as the real wasteland, where there is nothing but sand and rocks

 

Zone 2: the main damage here will be caused by the temperature of the blast and to a lesser degree by the now fading shockwave, in this area you will find remains of several previous sound structures, however badly damaged (also this is the only area where you will find nuke shadows (permanent "shadows" of humans on walls, etc., resulting from the extreme temperature, that turns the body into ash in seconds, combined with the remains of the shockwave, which forces the ash into the wall) this area is affected seconds after Zone 1

this area would look like several places in the fallout wasteland, where single buildings are still standing

 

 

Zone 3: this area is damaged by the aftereffects of the explosion, mainly firestorms, these areas will burn turn there's nothing left to burn, and I wouldn't wish any human to be in that area when it gets hit, if it weren't for the radiation, survival in this zone is quite possible, especially since this area gets hit after quite some time after the explosion, there actually is some time to evacuate this area (the outer edges of this zone will be hit hours after the explosion).

this area pretty much could look like the downtown DC ruins, a lot of the buildings still intact, however badly accessable due to collaped buildings. This is the Zone which will result in people ghostphasing (see radiation section for this)

 

now we come to the radiation:

 

we got 3 types here:

alpha,beta & gamma

alpha radiation can only be found in zone 1, most dangerous form of radiation, exposure to this type of radiation for a couple seconds (in the dosages of a nuke) is deadly, alpha radiation affects an area of several meter around the explosion site.

chances that you will be killed by alpha rad = 0%, you're dead before you get radiated

 

 

beta radiation: not as bad as alpha, but still will kill you rather quickly, also only found in zone 1, however extending to the outer edges of zone 1, exposure for several minutes will result in severe rad. pois., exposure for more than 10 minutes is most likely fatal (or at least you will wish it was, there ain't no sunshine at the end of that road).

 

gamma radiation: the most common type, also the only one you can not protect yourself from (wrapping yourself in a couple of layers of newspapers, is already good enough protection against alpha and beta). extends to the outer edges of zone 3 outside of zone 3, radiation levels will only be mildly - slightly elevated and living in these areas is not encouraged but possible.

 

gamma radiation is the most likey type of exposure you will suffer from, if you got exposed to a medium level, you will suffer from standard radiation pois., if you get exposed to a fatal dose, you will suffer from severe rad. pois. and eventually from an effect thats today known as ghostphasing. ghostphasing happens in your last days after the exposure. during ghostphasing you feel completely healthy and suffer from no rad. pois. effects. ghostphasing lasts usually for about 3 days, until you die. Reason for the name should be obvious by now and at least it sounds nicer than walking dead.

 

what seems to be misinterpreted here is the effect radiation has on vegetation, its true that a lot of plants aren't really all that affected by radiation, however too high levels of ground radiation prevents plant growth completely. have a look at the area around tschernobyl, there still isn't much growing at all and even if it were, nothing that grows there could be eaten.

 

for growing consumable food at all, at least 5 feet of the soil have to be removed, before you can even consider planting anything that wouldn't make you sick from eating it.

 

also given that the bombs exploded pretty much everywhere there would be a constant elevated background radiation so in the game you would constantly experience +1 or 2 rads/sec no matter where you are.

 

and the last point is the EMP, killing everything that has a chip ranging from toasters to cars to computers.

 

now we got the forced evolution virus (FEV), genetic mutation actually doesn't take all that long especially with the amount of radiation you would be exposed to, however the FEV would have to be directly administered, to cause somewhat fast mutations.

 

and as the background story tells, the supermutants have been created in labs and the reason there still are supermutants is because the supermutants continue to administer the virus.

 

however a virus that would have such a drastic effect as the FEV in the game is somewhat unlikely, but since it is an engineered one it is not impossible.

 

also it should probably be mentioned that the Virus that makes mutants and President Edens virus are 2 different ones (sadly, they both get called FEV in the game). On a side note, the creation of Eden's virus would be easier and more likely than the FEV for supermutants, cause edens doesn't change the DNA it targets changed DNA killing the person with changed DNA (and for that you could use any lethal virus).

 

so whats unrealistic about the game:

 

1 - in such a massive scale nuke attack, the chance of survival of the human race are none existent

2 - processed food you find would have much more rads than it does

3 - no terminal should be working at all

4 - energy weapons shouldn't work

 

and thats only a few points, but well its a game and its a damn good at that one

[Macromicro]

Plant life: if there are no plants, there would be no oxygen. you'd gag to death, but yet again, open vaults could filter outside air. plus:

 

SPOILER ALERT!!!

 

Harold could filter the air.

 

SPOILER OVER

 

so there wouldn't be much oxygen.

[csb]

Nice post by spammster.

 

I agree in large part, except for:

 

"in such a massive scale nuke attack, the chance of survival of the human race are none existent"

 

We don't have the empirical data to support this conclusion. In small-scale real-world use of nuclear weapons, e.g., Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there were survivors. There have been long-term genetic affects, as well as the short-term ones to the survivors. Obviously, in the short-term effects, many were blast/heat related. But there is documentation of effects to DNA as well as body processes.

 

So even on a massive nuclear war scale we can surmise:

 

Predominantly, the blasts were air-burst deliveries, though evidence in-game on at least one score, shows that there were ground-burst deliveries as well.

 

There would be survivors and those survivors would suffer effects that (theoretically) are passed on genetically.

 

Wide-spread radiation is caused by irradiated ("contaminated") material being air-borne by wind, etc. Isolated micro-climatic areas would be impacted far less. Since we have no empirical data other than Chernobyl, it is difficult to say how the earth's vegetation, micro-organisms, etc. would respond. We can make "educated guesses" based on extrapolation, but micro-models don't always translate accurately into macro-models (and vice versa).

 

And that is just addressing (some of) the physical sciences. There are also the social sciences to look at. Here we can extrapolate from things like Katrina, where the social order of New Orleans (for example) either vanished or was severely impacted. So having vigilante groups, small clusters of isolated settlements, etc. are not all that far-fetched.

 

Lastly, as spam rightly pointed out, this is an "alternate" reality ... a 1950s world that never went entirely away.

 

So in a game like Fallout3, there is enough latitude for game developers to work with in developing the post-apocalyptic world. It doesn't have to be accurate, just plausible enough (to the non-scientist) for suspension of belief. This is the same mechanism that movies and books use. They suspend our real world belief just enough in their plausibility for us to buy into the story.

 

Fallout3 accomplishes this fairly well -- unlike Oblivion, where we must extend that disbelief into things like magic, etc. -- and by adding "realism" mods, that is extended even further.

 

And yes, spam, it is after all, just a game -- and a good one.

[Macromicro]

ABOUT THE CRATERS: the dust would eventually fill the craters up, thus, making it as if it never happened.

 

ABOUT MEGATON: how would it have craters without an exploded nuke?

 

GHOULS: wtf? seriously. what are the chances that those guys could, you know, happen? plus, they probably wouldn't be healed by radiation, even if their genes were modified. plus, after a couple of years, would'nt they just.. rot away after a couple of years?

[Macromicro]

well time for my 2 cents (I do study nuclear chemistry, so I do have some kind of concept about radiactivity and real life effects)

 

Lets start with this:

 

It plays in the 50's in an alternative reality, where fission technology is broadly available and used in every day technology (cars etc.)

 

so the most likely used element for this is uranium (assuming that the fallout earth is somewhat simmilar to ours in elemental makeup) simply because its cheap and we got plenty of it.

 

Looking at the scale of destruction, the nukes must have been dropped in a clearly designed pattern for max. destruction (given the usage of fission technology everywhere, its not that far fetched to assume that more than 100.000 nukes existed or could at least be easily manufactured in a short period of time).

 

now lets continue with what an explsoion actually causes (all of the things listed happen, however the affected area depends on the size of the warhead)

 

1: the explosion itself would cause a crater of quite some extent if detonated on the ground, since there are no noticable craters in fallout 3 that have been caused by nukes, it is fair to assume that we deal with warheads that mostly have been detonated above ground.

 

2: the blast zone: for an average sized warhead (by our standards) it would approx. be 10 miles divided in 3 zones

Zone 1: the direct hitzone, everything in it will be destroyed within splitseconds (damage here is done by the pure pressure buildup (shockwave) from the blast and not so much the temperature), there will be nothing left in this area, these areas could be defined as the real wasteland, where there is nothing but sand and rocks

 

Zone 2: the main damage here will be caused by the temperature of the blast and to a lesser degree by the now fading shockwave, in this area you will find remains of several previous sound structures, however badly damaged (also this is the only area where you will find nuke shadows (permanent "shadows" of humans on walls, etc., resulting from the extreme temperature, that turns the body into ash in seconds, combined with the remains of the shockwave, which forces the ash into the wall) this area is affected seconds after Zone 1

this area would look like several places in the fallout wasteland, where single buildings are still standing

 

 

Zone 3: this area is damaged by the aftereffects of the explosion, mainly firestorms, these areas will burn turn there's nothing left to burn, and I wouldn't wish any human to be in that area when it gets hit, if it weren't for the radiation, survival in this zone is quite possible, especially since this area gets hit after quite some time after the explosion, there actually is some time to evacuate this area (the outer edges of this zone will be hit hours after the explosion).

this area pretty much could look like the downtown DC ruins, a lot of the buildings still intact, however badly accessable due to collaped buildings. This is the Zone which will result in people ghostphasing (see radiation section for this)

 

now we come to the radiation:

 

we got 3 types here:

alpha,beta & gamma

alpha radiation can only be found in zone 1, most dangerous form of radiation, exposure to this type of radiation for a couple seconds (in the dosages of a nuke) is deadly, alpha radiation affects an area of several meter around the explosion site.

chances that you will be killed by alpha rad = 0%, you're dead before you get radiated

 

 

beta radiation: not as bad as alpha, but still will kill you rather quickly, also only found in zone 1, however extending to the outer edges of zone 1, exposure for several minutes will result in severe rad. pois., exposure for more than 10 minutes is most likely fatal (or at least you will wish it was, there ain't no sunshine at the end of that road).

 

gamma radiation: the most common type, also the only one you can not protect yourself from (wrapping yourself in a couple of layers of newspapers, is already good enough protection against alpha and beta). extends to the outer edges of zone 3 outside of zone 3, radiation levels will only be mildly - slightly elevated and living in these areas is not encouraged but possible.

 

gamma radiation is the most likey type of exposure you will suffer from, if you got exposed to a medium level, you will suffer from standard radiation pois., if you get exposed to a fatal dose, you will suffer from severe rad. pois. and eventually from an effect thats today known as ghostphasing. ghostphasing happens in your last days after the exposure. during ghostphasing you feel completely healthy and suffer from no rad. pois. effects. ghostphasing lasts usually for about 3 days, until you die. Reason for the name should be obvious by now and at least it sounds nicer than walking dead.

 

what seems to be misinterpreted here is the effect radiation has on vegetation, its true that a lot of plants aren't really all that affected by radiation, however too high levels of ground radiation prevents plant growth completely. have a look at the area around tschernobyl, there still isn't much growing at all and even if it were, nothing that grows there could be eaten.

 

for growing consumable food at all, at least 5 feet of the soil have to be removed, before you can even consider planting anything that wouldn't make you sick from eating it.

 

also given that the bombs exploded pretty much everywhere there would be a constant elevated background radiation so in the game you would constantly experience +1 or 2 rads/sec no matter where you are.

 

and the last point is the EMP, killing everything that has a chip ranging from toasters to cars to computers.

 

now we got the forced evolution virus (FEV), genetic mutation actually doesn't take all that long especially with the amount of radiation you would be exposed to, however the FEV would have to be directly administered, to cause somewhat fast mutations.

 

and as the background story tells, the supermutants have been created in labs and the reason there still are supermutants is because the supermutants continue to administer the virus.

 

however a virus that would have such a drastic effect as the FEV in the game is somewhat unlikely, but since it is an engineered one it is not impossible.

 

also it should probably be mentioned that the Virus that makes mutants and President Edens virus are 2 different ones (sadly, they both get called FEV in the game). On a side note, the creation of Eden's virus would be easier and more likely than the FEV for supermutants, cause edens doesn't change the DNA it targets changed DNA killing the person with changed DNA (and for that you could use any lethal virus).

 

so whats unrealistic about the game:

 

1 - in such a massive scale nuke attack, the chance of survival of the human race are none existent

2 - processed food you find would have much more rads than it does

3 - no terminal should be working at all

4 - energy weapons shouldn't work

 

and thats only a few points, but well its a game and its a damn good at that one

about the energy weapons, they're probably stored in EMP- proof rooms, for one.. and the enclave plasma rifle was made AFTER the war. yet again, where would they get the parts? FROM THE EMP-PROOF ROOMS!!!!!!!!!!

[csb]

ABOUT THE CRATERS: the dust would eventually fill the craters up, thus, making it as if it never happened.

 

Plausible. 200 years of erosion and airborne particulate drift would fill in a lot of craters. A real-life example: Yellowstone - a super-size volcanic caldera, yet nature has obscure that over the years. Ground-burst nuclear devices would leave little evidence after two centuries for the most part.

 

ABOUT MEGATON: how would it have craters without an exploded nuke?

 

Even unexploded ordinance leaves an impact crater. This could have been "enhanced" by survivors digging out the area for their own protection. But admittedly, by itself, it would not be that sizable to begin with nor would it remain (as above) after 200 years.

 

GHOULS: wtf? seriously. what are the chances that those guys could, you know, happen? plus, they probably wouldn't be healed by radiation, even if their genes were modified. plus, after a couple of years, would'nt they just.. rot away after a couple of years?

 

Just like leprosy "happens" -- a genetic effect caused by radiation and/or FEV, etc.

 

A good catch by macro regarding EMP in spam's post:

 

and the last point is the EMP, killing everything that has a chip ranging from toasters to cars to computers.

 

However, it would not necessary have to be in an EMP-proof room. If the device is off, EMP has little to no effect. The issue regarding terminals 200 years old still working is another matter ... one of those "suspension of disbelief" things, I guess :D ...

[spammster]

yeah I prolly went a bit far with this one:

 

"in such a massive scale nuke attack, the chance of survival of the human race are none existent"

 

one thing that should probably be mentioned as well, that i didn't do previously:

 

under the right conditions, the radiation from an above ground explosion can travel several thousand miles.

 

obviously, the radiation will eventually stop being all that noticeable and just result in a minimal increase in overall background radiation, but that does add up, we don't talk 1 or 2 warheads here, we're most likely in the tens of thousands if not more.

 

but well, to correct the statement: in such a massive scale nuke attack, the chance of survival of the human race as it is now is none existent.

 

by that i mean, that without adaption of the DNA, human life will cease to exist. (so simply put: if humans don't mutate in a way to handle higher dosage of radiation humanity will be extincted (not too mention that one of rad pois. effects is sterility (at least temporary if dosage is low and treated))

 

quick simplified overview of rad levels and effects:

 

<100 rems = noticable change in the blood, however usually no symptoms one actually feels

100-300 rems = nausea, vomiting, temporary sterility, drop of white bloodcells (increasing risk of infection etc.)

300-450 rems = all of the previous symptoms plus: hairloss, damge of nerve cells, significant drop in white bloodcell count, extreme risk of infection, reduced production of red blood cells increasing the risk of internal hemorrhaging (usual visible sign of this are bleeding gums and noses)

>450 rems = 50% of the exposed humans die, symptoms as previous + fever and diarrhea

>800 rems = all of the above plus nearly always fatal

 

in the event you survive a more severe exposure, you can expect pretty much every type of cancer possible (not all at once obviously, but eventually one of em will show up) the most likely types would be leukemia and lung cancer

 

and just in case it wasn't obvious: something like RadAway doesn't exist (to a lesser degree something like Rad-X exists)

 

only known treatment involves blood transfusion and bone-marrow transplant and thats not really a treatment thats a temporary fix.

 

and for a "fun" (<- note the "") fact : at least 10 people actually survived both nagasaki and hiroshima (evacuated hiroshima and ended up in nagasaki, just to get hit by the second bomb).

 

quick sum up of the effects it had on the citys: (all numbers aren't entirely certain)

 

hiroshima:

dropped on the ground:

2/3 of all buildings destroyed (roughly 60.000 in total)

casualties:

direct casualties: 60-70.000

injured: 140.000

exposed to lethal levels of radiation: 100.000 (how many died is especially tricky to determine, cause a lot of them may very well have survived the radiation just to die years later from cancer)

 

nagasaki:

airburst

40% of all structures destroyed

casualties:

directly: 42.000

injured: 40.000

exposure: ?? (unknown)

 

so thats only 2 bombs resulting in about 280.000 killed and injured not including those who were exposed

 

lets do some real simplified math:

125.000 per bomb = 250.000 per 2 bombs = 1 million per 8 bombs = 1 billion per 8000 bombs = 6 billion per 48.000 bombs

6 billion humans on the planet, lets add 2.000 bombs for good measure, totaling about 50.000 bombs

 

USA and Russia total about 20.000 warheads (at least those confirmed to exist), so in a theoretical world, thats even more dependend on fission technology than we are 50k isn't an unlikely amount if everyone nukes everyone.

 

so casualties should be in the billions (if not killed by the bombs, they starved or got killed in ressource fights) so for that theoretical scenario (that is nowhere near accurate) there actually are too many people in the DC area :D

 

now lets go on with ghouls: while ghouls emself are (not gonna say theoretically impossible) but most likely practically impossible, seeing as there are no ghoul kids its fair to assume they can't reproduce and its not because they don't have blood, kill a ghoul and some fluids splatter (which according to the geck is defined as organic blood ;) ) they must be sterile. however I'm not sure what to make of the rotting, since they obviously rotted at some point, but yet they have blood and given that it splatters like it does, it gotta be flowing around inside em, so they have a functioning body.

 

towards the immune to radiation: well, thats very well possible, we gots cockroaches afterall and you can stuff em in a uranium storage tank and they are good.

 

and well, something nice at the end:

 

Acute Radiation Syndrome

 

Cleveland BioLabs is conducting a Phase I safety trial for Protectan CBLB502 for use In Acute Radiation Syndrome.

 

Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) occurs after individuals are exposed to high levels of ionizing radiation such as might be expected following detonation of a nuclear weapon or a “dirty bomb” or an accident near a nuclear power plant. The three biological systems most affected by high levels of radiation are (1) the vascular system in the brain; (2) the mucosal cells lining the gastrointestinal (GI) track and (2) the hematopoietic (HP)/immune system. Damage to the brain’s vasculature, which occurs only at the very highest levels of radiation exposure, is irreversible and lethal. GI damage, including lesions within the gut followed by sepsis, is induced by high levels of radiation.

 

This is usually fatal within several weeks. Damage to the HP system occurs at modestly high levels of exposure and leads to failure of the immune system in fighting infections. This can be lethal within 3-6 weeks. CBLI’s compound, Protectan CBLB502, is being investigated as a radiation countermeasure for protection against and mitigation of the GI- and HP-related symptoms of ARS.

 

phase II trial is set for mid 2010 and if it keeps going like it does now, its expected to get FDA approval by 2012

 

so who knows, we might eventually actually have a real version of Rad-X.