Megaton and Mr Burke's Request

[ElizabethLestrad]

Disclaimer: For the purposes of this discussion we are ignoring the fact that this is a game.

 

Alright, Ive been reading up on the effects and radius of a nuclear blast and so I have the following information for the purposes of this discussion:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Abombdamage1945.svg

 

The first thing to determine would be how large an area is the explorable world supposed to be? Using a quote that compares the Fallout 3 world being similar in size to Oblivion lets stick with 16 square miles. So if the world is 16 miles

 

So that being said I took the entire map of FO3 and measured 16mi as ~18.5 cm on a ruler.

So if 16 mi = 18.5 cm, then 1mi = ~1.16 cm (1.15625).

 

Then I measured from Tenpenny Tower to Megaton calculating the distance out as ~5.6mi

 

Now according to the estimated damage radius of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki ("Little Boy" being 13-16 KT and "Fat Man" being 21 KT), and using Megaton as the Hypocenter, Tenpenny Towers WOULD be out of the blast radius, but not necessarily outside of the heatwave and radioactive fallout. Further more, it is also highly possible that Tenpenny Towers WOULD have been within the EMP blast radius, however I have been unable to figure out a way to calculate that.

 

So based on my calculations for the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs that if a bomb averaging 18.5 KT can have a maximum damage radius of 3.5 mi, then that would be roughly 5.29 KT/mi (5.2857 KT/mi). So that would mean for minimal structual damage (excluding heat wave, fallout or EMP) the bomb would have to be AT LEAST 30KT (29.62 KT)

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Nukecloud.png

 

To further the question of how powerful the bomb was, I used the cloud measurement table above. And based on the cloud effect in game and the estimated distance of the cloud vs the height, we can rule out that it is under 1 MT and more likely somewhere between 20 and 100 KT. I origionally thought to use the massive scale of the bomb as a gauge to measure the bombs power, but then I came across this:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Tsar_Bomba.JPG

 

The "King Bomb", the largest and most powerful thermo-nuclear weapon ever detonated, rated at 50 MT (It was origionally going to be 100MT) and considering that a 30 MT bomb cloud goes more than 100,000 ft into the air, it just goes to show that size means very little when it comes to nuclear bombs.

 

Tsar's Explosion (50 MT)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c...sar_photo11.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/34/Tsar01.jpg

 

Castle Bravo (30 MT)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Castle_..._and_white).jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Castle_Bravo_Blast.jpg

 

Fat Man Explosion (21 KT)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Nagasakibomb.jpg

 

So what else do we know. The most blatant fact is that it takes place in the US, and that being said, considering the bomb was dropped on the DC area, it PROBABLY was not American-made. However with few hostile and semi-hostile nations that have nuclear programs we have information on, its very hard to get an estimate of the kilo-tonnage of a modern nuclear weapon. I would guess though that its safe to say that its blast effect makes it seem like its more powerful than the Fat Man bomb. Yet the fact that it could not even incinerate something at ground zero (the walls of the city) makes it seem like it was actually less powerful than the fat man bomb. And judging by the devistation shown in these pictures below, its theres a very low propability that the walls could have survived.

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...s-Hiroshima.jpg

http://39th.org/39th/images/damagephotos/D...hiroshima-c.jpg

 

 

MY QUESTION:

Based on the information gathered, the size of the cloud and the relatively small distance between ground zero and Tenpenny Towers, and considering the fact that (based on estimates) it would only have taken a 30KT bomb for Tenpenny Towers to be within the blast radius, I suspect that the people in Tenpenny Tower would all have been killed, if not by actual blast damage, but by a combination of massive winds, firestorm, EMP, etc. This is also due to the fact that in the pictures of the aftermath of Hiroshima, while a very few number of small buildings survived, tall skyscraper like buildings were not so lucky.

 

So again, ignoring the fact that Tenpenny Towers managed to survive a nuclear war (which alone defies logic), I believe that the blowing up of the bomb at Megaton would have been potentially fatal to Tenpenny and the inhabitants of the tower if not by the blast itself, but the heatwave, wind, fallout, etc. Im interested in hearing what other people think.

 

 

Addendum 1:

 

MODERN NUCLEAR WARHEADS AND STRENGTHS (To the best of my research abilities)

 

US Weapons

W69 = 170-200KT

W80-0 = 170-200 KT

W80-1 = 150-170 KT

W81 = 2-4 KT

W85 = 5-80 KT (Project Scrapped)

 

CHINA

"596" - 22KT (1964)

"No. 6" - 3 MT (1967)

 

NORTH KOREA

Alleged 2006 Test = Less than 1 KT

 

RUSSIA

RT-2UTTH Topol M = 550 KT

 

Addendum 2:

 

This is the map I used to calculate the distance between Tenpenny Towers and Megaton. Based on the ingame map I suspected that Unknown #5 was the location of Tenpenny Towers.

http://fallout3.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/map1.jpg

[Vagrant0]

You honestly did all that figuring... for a game... Wow, you musta been REALLY bored today. From what I've been reading, there are plenty other inconsistancies and oversights in this game, and you happen to pick one of the least critical ones. The fact that so many large, important structures are remaining in the world would suggest that the bombs being used were lower yield.

[Guest]

The game world isn't exactly to scale, but assuming for the moment that real-world distances were attempted to be modeled, it's actually 2-3x the distance you figured. The actual, real-world distance between Fairfax, VA and the Washington Memorial is about 15 miles (per google maps, with some allowance for as-the-crow-flies versus the total given via roads). Just eyeballing but the distance between Tenpenny and Megaton is only a bit under that, certainly more than 5.6mi.

[MrCooper2006]

Yeah.... shooting someone in the head would also kill them in real life. In the game it doesnt.

 

 

 

Its a ******* game!!!

[Armadous]

Kudos on a well composed conjecture.

 

However I feel you have missed one key factor, the bomb was a ground burst. A ground burst servery limits the destructive force of a nuke. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were both air bursts. There is also no way to know weather the nuke was a fission or fusion bomb. We could even be dealing with a neutron bomb that is built to yield less destructive force and large amounts of neutron radiation.

 

Regardless of the 50s ear looking tech, technology had advanced significantly up until 2077. This is obvious with the existence of sentient AIs, plasma weaponry, and shielding technology. You could explain the whole thing by saying the nuke was of a type not yet invented and had unique properties not known to modern nuclear devices. It's a cop out really but that's the beauty of the post-apocalyptic high science future of the 50s retro past that is Fallout.

[Alanor]

I might have missed it in what you wrote. But as I understand it both Fat Man and Little Boy exploded in midair (470m and 600m respectively) while the bomb at Megaton was lodged at the bottom of a deep crater... That, in my mind, invalidates any comparison of the two. Although I am always open to being proved wrong. :)

 

And edit: Crap, I missed Armadous post completely...

[Circuitous]

I like this thread. Good work all around.

[anarchicrazor]

hah, thats pretty brilliant and cool. nice job figuring that out. very interesting :thanks:

[ElizabethLestrad]

@Parasite 13: Yeah I had figured out that the Fallout III world wasnt to scale, but as I was going by the game world and not the real world, I thought that it wasnt really important.

 

@Armadeus & Alanor: Good call. I forgot to take that into account about the air burst and also realized shortly afterwards that the bomb was in a crater and not on ground level. But I was falling asleep at that point and didnt want to spend any more time on it seeing as I had to get up for work after only a few hours....

 

I made other observations, and I wish I held a degree in Nuclear Physics, but here we go.

 

1. I dont recall the intro saying how many years after the nuclear holocaust Fallout 3 is supposed to take place, but I find it weird that if radiation decays "very slowly" and a place like Hiroshima is perfectly safe to live in again, yet places like Chernobyl (sp?) are not. Its hard for me to figure out, but I would think the radioactive fallout and contamination would be alot....heavier, than it seems like it is in the game....with all those Nuclear bombs going off and the fact that wind can spread fallout like no other. I would also think that the Ozone would have been completely destroyed, baking the planet with even more radiation from the sun. But thats just my opinion. I have no real science to back any of that up (that Im willing to take the time to research anyways.

 

2. Im wondering if a better comparison of the bomb would be to compare it to the underground/underwater testing that was done, but I have not found anything that compared the blast radius effects of Air/Ground/Underwater detonations. Then again, I didnt take much time to look.

 

3. We need a nuclear physicist. Any one know any?

 

 

 

Basically all Im trying to determine is whether, according to the scale in the game world, is if the nuclear detonation of the town of Megaton would have caused (if not total distruction), significant damage to the structural integrity of the tower including all associated health risks inherrant in a nuclear blast, putting Tenpenny and his renters at risk (If not killing them outright).

 

Its been nagging me incessantly for a while now, and again, the way I figure it while they may have been out of range of the initial blast, that massive wind and radioactive fallout would have. Also, since the planet already managed to scrape through a nuclear holocaust (just barely by the looks of things), the effects that yet another nuclear blast would have had on the Ozone (if it wasnt already depleted) and natural weather phenomena would not only effect the people of Tenpenny Towers, but quite possibly all the surface dwellers in the area.

 

Either way I would imagine the effects would be detrimental to his constituency whether the tower was destroyed, damaged, or not. Since theres no formal economy to speak of and no real manufacturing going on that I could tell, I would think its safe to assume that what radiation medicine is available, one gone is just that...gone. Which would mean that Tenpenny detonating that bomb and re-radiating the area could very well cause a larger need for the medicine AND those who have medicine to use it up quicker since the water supply to Tenpenny Towers is now radiated stonger than it was before the bomb exploded.

 

Also again, with the EMP blast, I would imagine (thought I have no formal knowledge on the effect other than what is basic knowledge) that the EMP would have destroyed TP Towers electrical system possibly beyond repairs.

 

So I think I would still say: YES, it was a very wreckless move on his part (Besides all the people he\burke\you murdered).

[Armadous]

Clearly Tenpenny is deranged in the first place. This is fairly well expressed in his character such as shooting randomly off his balcony at nothing.

 

As far as residual radiation assuming its not a dirty bomb (neutron) lasts weeks. Given that radioactive decay is exponential it would be safe to enter the area in 3 to 5 weeks. The reason Chernobyl is still not safe is it still contains spent nuclear fuel. The plant was active up until 2000 and is currently under constant watch due to the radioactive materials contained there. A small number of people do continue to live in the area. Reactor #4 (the one that exploded) has been contained and as far as the world knows is not leaking radiation, the Sarcophagus that contains the reactor is degrading but that's a whole different discussion.

 

About global atmospheric effects, the opposite is actually true. It's commonly believed a nuclear war would induce years of nuclear winter. The dust and particulate ejected by the bombs would fill the atmosphere preventing the sun from hitting the ground over the majority of the planet. Most everything that survived the blast, which would actually be a fair percentage of the world population, would freeze or starve to death.

 

The events of Fallout III occur 200 years post armageddon. The fact that you can still find working technology throughout the wastes proves the tech is not only resilient but likely EMP proof. You can currently create an EMP proof box simply by placing your electronics inside a cardboard box then wrapping it in aluminum foil.

 

For a ground burst, we might safely assume the bomb is impeded by 60% given the slight cratering. This is in comparison to know air burst data. It could be more but is unlikely to be less. I agree Tenpenny tower is approximately 5.5 miles from Megaton. I believe the nuke could be no bigger than 15 MT. At 60% the fireball from a 15 MT device might be expected to extend 1.7 km or just over a mile and a shock wave reaching 8.2km or 5 miles. When the shock wave hits the ground it is reflected, disrupting the wave. Ideally you position the device high enough reflecting waves bounce off the ground at the proper angle as to reinforce the direct wave. At ground level wave disruption would be significant.

 

Now the tower would certainly be hit with deadly radiation. Conservatively you could be looking at radioactive fallout reaching out 15 miles. I would say given the abundance at which radiation drugs can be found everywhere in the wastes and their extreme effectiveness removing the survivable radiation exposure the tenants received should be possible. For all we know rad away could be in the drinking water much like fluoride is in our ours. As a side note radiation meds were just as common in Fallout 1 and 2, its as if the government issued a weekly rad away and rad-x to every man woman and child for 10 years before the bombs.

 

The tower has also clearly undergone reconstruction, as evident by the large section of metal plating, blast reinforcing measure could well have been taken.