If you never see 3 misses in a row at 95%, that means that after you've missed 2 95% shots in a row, your next 95% shot will be a guaranteed hit. If you can absolutely guarantee that hit, then it's not random, is it? Anyway, while the numbers do not correspond to the ACTUAL hit rate on Normal (you are given hidden significant bonuses to hit if you've missed previous 50%+ shots, and you are down to 4 soldiers), they certainly aren't any worse than what is displayed. You are just that unlucky, or you are reloading saves (which will result in the same outcome).