Artificial Intelligence

[dave1029]

So some brainiac took current top end processors and applied Moore's Law to them. He concluded that we will have processors with the processing power of humans, but with the thinking time at the speed of light, capable of being fully self aware by the year 2040. I don't know about y'all, but I don't feel comfortable with something else as smart as us inhabiting our planet. Thoughts? Remember 2040 is in only 27 years.

[Thor.]

They say artificial intelligence will be much sooner then that, we already have the proper processing power, its now up to the programmers to make it happen. IBM is doing some amazing things when it comes to human emotions and smell. not to mention touch,

 

there was a IBM youtube video demonstrating what they are up to. Nasa and google are not too far behind.

 

5 to ten years, but hey think earlier than that, or even now with drones and Quantum computers.

[dave1029]

It's not the processing power, it's the transistors. Our brains need so many neurotransmitters to be so smart. Kind of like collective intelligence type stuff. And we won't have the necessary transistors to create a true AI until 2030-2040. I'm not talking about AI that mimics us. I'm talking about a true new form of life. One that is self aware and acts to preserve its existence.

[Lisnpuppy]

I supposed it depends on the development on the quantum processor development also. That is still an unknown quantity. That could be huge.

 

Still...it may happen at some point. Most likely will. We will have to read up on our Asimov before then, eh?

[Thor.]

I had a whole bunch of articles based on this Subject, look up watson. Its a start in that direction.

 

Edited June 26, 2013 by Thor.

[ZeroKing]

Watson's old tech..... since 1995, in fact. As for cognitive self-awareness...... make it 2060, tech is still unknown, and most new research is illegal in many countries due to security purpose.

 

As an engineer, I can easily tell you there will be ethical repercussions down the road. Hell, we at the neural engineering already hit our first of many roadblocks: nano-tech prosthesis. If research in that department going to be on a standstill because of some politician telling us it may cause problems (ethics, law, religion, whatever), then quantum processing will be on standby for at least another decade or so..... not to mention that self-aware machines are more complex than just fixing many parts together.

 

Most of the stuff you read up on is purely theoretical or, at best, a trial-by-error analysis only. There's no true research being done yet. Remember: Moore's law is an observation only, not a law. Materials science states that Moore's law fails in quantum/micro complex computations (possible future tech) whereas it works for macro material systems (current tech).

Edited June 26, 2013 by ZeroKing

[Thor.]

Here is one of the breakthroughs so far.

 

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/158825-computerized-brain-made-of-gpus-could-be-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence

 

more to come,some of my links date back awhile 404

 

and

 

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/156049-google-and-nasa-buy-a-quantum-computer-to-research-more-intelligent-ai

 

more coming

 

we have the storage :biggrin:

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/146600-new-technique-stores-terabytes-data-on-dna-with-100-accuracy

 

lol i have so much, it'll take me awhile.

 

off topic and off of my fav subjects, warp drive are we there yet :teehee:

http://www.space.com/21704-star-trek-future.htmlAlso a sign of things to come

 

they just keep coming.

 

http://www.space.com/214-amplified-intelligence-machines-brain-boosters.html

Edited June 26, 2013 by Thor.

[QQuix]

Decades ago I read this one page science fiction story:

 

Mankind had finally developed a supercomputer and gave it all the power they could, including weather control. There was a large opening ceremony where the world leaders turned the supercomputer on. To test it, they asked the ultimate question: "Is there a god?". Like Watson, the computer spend some time considering the possible answers and finally answered "Now, there is!". The leaders ran to turn it off, but a bolt of lightning stroke the switch and melted it forever (Did I say it was written in the 50's?)

[Lisnpuppy]

 

As an engineer, I can easily tell you there will be ethical repercussions down the road. Hell, we at the neural engineering already hit our first of many roadblocks: nano-tech prosthesis. If research in that department going to be on a standstill because of some politician telling us it may cause problems (ethics, law, religion, whatever), then quantum processing will be on standby for at least another decade or so..... not to mention that self-aware machines are more complex than just fixing many parts together.

 

Most of the stuff you read up on is purely theoretical or, at best, a trial-by-error analysis only. There's no true research being done yet. Remember: Moore's law is an observation only, not a law. Materials science states that Moore's law fails in quantum/micro complex computations (possible future tech) whereas it works for macro material systems (current tech).

I don't think though the politicians are going to have dogs in that race as much as you think. For one, the main use of the quantum processor is encryption and the military loves that stuff. So maybe we won't "see" it but it will be worked and researched.

 

Yes self-awareness is more complicated...and I think..(weird theory incoming) that we won't "make" the self-aware robot. It will come on its own. I am saying this...we don't really understand consciousness...and I think it will happen by mistake or accident. Once it happens...well....

 

Also...money talks. If someone has the money to pay for something..someone will do it. Other forms of evolution in machines and in humans (or combos of these) is coming despite whatever ethical dilemma some may have.

[ZeroKing]

Of course it will be worked on, it's progress to make better functioning machines.

 

Private corps are more than willing to do this, but gov't/military want first dibs, and they always seal off our research from the outside world. I'm actually quite excited by the notion of a fully self-aware machine, despite the ethical issues. However, the part where Moore's law would apply here is still quite wrong: it's still an observation, not a law, and no amount of current research/articles will predict the growth of this field. It's not really something you can say will be completed by 2020, 2040, or even 2060, because quantum physics follows differential understanding.... which Moore's law does not include. Besides, growth on the number of transistors slowed down this year, and likely will only increase every 3-4 years from here on (according to the esteemed physicists of our time, at least) as opposed to the usual 1-2 year period. So by that logic, it's more likely that self-awareness in machines will take time, but it will happen eventually..... just not so soon.

 

The only fear (Terminator being an extreme example) is that what happens if these breathing machines start having..... ideas. That's where people might start to distance away from the research. But why fear it if we can control the way machines think to begin with? There are questions to be asked, and no huge lump of money will convince ALL scientists and engineers to follow through with this. I would go through this research myself, given my general curiosity in the subject, but already roughly ~40% of scientists and engineers disagree with this sort of research (based on Canadian internal polls) until they get to understand how the human conscience works first.

 

Most of these articles that I read on the internet, including the ones that Thor linked, are way too optimistic, and often riddled with a lot of information from research that are later disproven within months after they are initially published. Quantum computation research fluctuate so frequently that I don't blame the article author(s) for not being to cover as much fact on this subject, but don't start using them as a basis for information. Nevertheless, as the OP stated, self-awareness is more than likely within our reach.

Edited June 26, 2013 by ZeroKing