International Relations Omnibus

[dazzerfong]

Yes, MB, tell America they don't need Chinese exports................

 

Sure, Chinese exports can be produced elsewhere, but not nearly as much in terms of quantity. The relative output is small, but we're talking about absolute output here. Using your logic, we should hire one person who outputs $100,000 a year rather than a million who outputs a dollar per person.

 

Err, MB, I'm Chinese (note the 'Fong' in my name?). I'm even a Chinese (ie. from China) national. You can't really call me 'sinophobic' for that, nor is your accusation any indication of your growing bias and 'god complex'. I very like China, and I agree with the symbiotic relationship between China and USA, but I'm only providing statistics, not so much as an opinion.

Edited March 5, 2012 by dazzerfong

[myrmaad]

I'm pretty sure that was a "universal you" in response to the parroted "china threat' that pervades US media.

[HeyYou]

Just looking at the numbers (dollars) doesn't tell the whole story. China sends as things like toys, cookware, etc. Not really high dollar items. (aside from the diesel engines they will soon be producing.....) Mexico builds cars..... and a fair number of them at that.

 

Take a wander thru any department store, and have a look at where products come from. You will find that most do indeed come from china. Should china ever decide to STOP shipping us 'stuff'..... sure, we can get it elsewhere, but, it won't exactly be easy, nor will it be a smooth transition. No matter how you slice it, china has more power over the US government, than US citizens do.

[Marxist ßastard]

Should china ever decide to STOP shipping us 'stuff'..... sure, we can get it elsewhere, but, it won't exactly be easy, nor will it be a smooth transition. No matter how you slice it, china has more power over the US government, than US citizens do.

Really? We aren't just talking about a trade skirmish here; the question actually is "What if China forbids domestic businesses from trading with the US, at all, forever?"

 

At the same time, why don't we consider:

• What if China nukes LA?
• What if China orders its citizens to jump, like, all at once so the Earth hurtles into the Sun?
• What if China summons an ancient dragon that eats cities? Oh and it's made of praseodymium, so there's no praseodymium left anywhere.

We're talking about a state, not a cartoon supervillain. If China planned a total trade embargo against the US, companies in China would flee over the threat of nationalization. Almost all foreign money and capital goods invested in China would leave the country. The EU would impose its own embargoes against China, since they're now an extremely unreliable trading partner. Half of Chinese factories would shut down overnight. At this point the official US response would be "LOL enjoy your coup." It's simply not a credible threat, and both China and the US know this.

[Nintii]

However, should it come to an issue of national security and a threat to it's ideology and security, China would not hesitate - like the old Cuban Missile Crisis - to draw the line in the sand irrespective of the Wests reaction or the consequences.. Edited March 6, 2012 by Nintii

[sukeban]

@MB

 

Indeed, the CPC's hold on power is tenuous and is predicated on continued high rates (10+% GDP) of economic growth. Ceasing exports to the USA would be completely unrealistic, as its corollary would be the collapse of China's economy. China's middle class is no way strong enough to be able to pick up the slack left by not selling to the USA. I mean, it wasn't some nefarious plot by the Chinese when they were buying up American sovereign debt in the late 90s and 00s; rather, they were aware that American consumers were the ones buying their products--fueling their economic miracle--and it was very much in their best interest to continue enabling Americans and their government to continue buying. Nobody else had or has that sort of economic might. India and the EU certainly aren't going to replace the American market anytime soon.

 

Viewed in this light, I am not so sure that the USA doesn't, in actuality, have more power over China than the reverse. Personally, I could forgo buying some cheap white tees or another iPhone if a trade war did, for whatever asinine reason, begin. But could the Chinese government deal with immediate and massive unemployment amongst an already restive population? Doubt it.

 

...................

 

As far as a shooting war might ever go, that is beyond never going to happen. I don't think China suffers from the same sort of "Exceptionalism" delusion that many Americans are afflicted by. They want what's best for their nation, and they deserve it. If that means having a certain "sphere of influence"... so be it. China is an enormous and powerful country, as we are as well. Americans are so sensitive about everything. We have based nuclear weapons near the borders of the old USSR (Turkey, France, UK), yet freaked out when they attempted to move theirs nearer to our borders. We have large garrisons in Korea, Japan, Afghanistan--almost encircling China--as well as a vast navy and air force able to project power anywhere. While I do not want Chinese bases in Mexico or their ships off the coast of San Francisco, I can understand a certain "GTFO" mentality that they might harbor for precisely this same reason. And last I checked, the Chinese weren't preparing to attack their fourth country in the span of eleven years....

Edited March 6, 2012 by sukeban

[HeyYou]

@MB

 

Indeed, the CPC's hold on power is tenuous and is predicated on continued high rates (10+% GDP) of economic growth. Ceasing exports to the USA would be completely unrealistic, as its corollary would be the collapse of China's economy. China's middle class is no way strong enough to be able to pick up the slack left by not selling to the USA. I mean, it wasn't some nefarious plot by the Chinese when they were buying up American sovereign debt in the late 90s and 00s; rather, they were aware that American consumers were the ones buying their products--fueling their economic miracle--and it was very much in their best interest to continue enabling Americans and their government to continue buying. Nobody else had or has that sort of economic might. India and the EU certainly aren't going to replace the American market anytime soon.

 

Viewed in this light, I am not so sure that the USA doesn't, in actuality, have more power over China than the reverse. Personally, I could forgo buying some cheap white tees or another iPhone if a trade war did, for whatever asinine reason, begin. But could the Chinese government deal with immediate and massive unemployment amongst an already restive population? Doubt it.

 

...................

 

As far as a shooting war might ever go, that is beyond never going to happen. I don't think China suffers from the same sort of "Exceptionalism" delusion that many Americans are afflicted by. They want what's best for their nation, and they deserve it. If that means having a certain "sphere of influence"... so be it. China is an enormous and powerful country, as we are as well. Americans are so sensitive about everything. We have based nuclear weapons near the borders of the old USSR (Turkey, France, UK), yet freaked out when they attempted to move theirs nearer to our borders. We have large garrisons in Korea, Japan, Afghanistan--almost encircling China--as well as a vast navy and air force able to project power anywhere. While I do not want Chinese bases in Mexico or their ships off the coast of San Francisco, I can understand a certain "GTFO" mentality that they might harbor for precisely this same reason. And last I checked, the Chinese weren't preparing to attack their fourth country in the span of eleven years....

 

Fifth country.... We are already at four, and working on number five. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and soon, Iran.)

 

China is indeed attempting to expand their sphere of influence..... claiming rights to the entire china sea, and everything in it, even though other countries 12 mile limits extend into it. Claiming waters over 500 miles from their coast, but, only 50 from some island nation. Etc. I don't think a shooting war with china is that far-fetched......

 

Consider: the american economy is currently stumbling along..... very little if any growth, spiraling debt, a government that seems to think that jobs in other countries equates to jobs in america...... supporting outsourcing, and free trade, etc. The poor here are getting poorer, the middle class is rapidly disappearing, the rich are getting richer at a greater rate than ever before..... That is just no sustainable. It isn't going to be too long before there is no one left in america that can even afford to buy those imported chinese manufactured goods.... and china's economy will follow shortly after the US.....

 

As for US citizens suddenly deciding to stop buying imported chinese goods.... never gonna happen. We have gotten to used to our cheap, disposable, lifestyle to give it up now. It ain't the 50's any more.

[sukeban]

@HeyYou

 

Lol, Indeed. So many wars. Though if we are counting Yemen, should we not also count Pakistan?

 

I don't really dispute anything you mentioned, save for the fact that I still think the chances of a conflict are miniscule. There is just too much to lose for that to ever happen, or to ever seem desirable. Nobody really gains in that scenario, least of all the Chinese. Maybe, maybe, maybe there might be a play for "reunification" with Taiwan sometime down the line, but I'm not even sure that's something the USA would bother to actually go to war over any longer.

 

Apart from that though, de facto containment of China seems simple. Most of their neighbors are, at best, suspicious of Chinese power due to historical grievances. Japan has no love. Neither does Vietnam. Korea might get along well with the Chinese, but I doubt that they are wanting to be left alone with them. India might admire China's progress, but again, they fought a war only a couple decades ago. Russia? Relationship of convenience, IMO. Remember, the USSR and Mao's China fought numerous border wars, which should have made a mockery of many Americans' belief in a monolithic Communist bloc. We are the chief allies of Thailand, the patrons of Taiwan, have influence in Kyrgyzstan, etc. That is basically every country bordering China, apart from Mongolia, Pakistan, and DPRK.

 

In any case, that is why China has to look Elsweyr for international friends. So they're in Africa selling cheap weapons to whomever will buy them. Their state companies champion infrastructure projects in the developing world. They are the chief buyer of Iranian oil. And, I'm sure, they are buying influence within governments around the world. But, that can only take them so far.

 

There is also much to be said about cultural heritage and alignment. China likely will never get along with Europe (and their ex-colonies) as well as Americans do. Which is why they are fishing in the developing world, largely in nations with no historical contact with China. Their immediate neighbors are, as previously mentioned, suspicious of them. This leaves them with very few attractive options. This can also be said of Russia (being the outcast, mistrusted European nation). But again, I don't think the Chinese have any innate need to dominate, especially in exotic locations. They only want reliable access to natural resources and markets. Which makes them the same as any other developed or developing nation, IMO.

Edited March 7, 2012 by sukeban

[HeyYou]

I guess I just lumped Pakistan in with Afghanistan. :D

 

True, at present, China has zero motivation to 'start something' with the US. In fact, it is really in their (current) best interests to keep us happy. Of course, that works both ways. Now, with congress passing a tariff on imported chinese goods, that get government subsidies..... things may change. Certainly not overnight....

 

Maybe I am just paranoid, but, I just see a lot of potential problems with having most of our manufacturing OUTSIDE of our country. In the event of a global conflict/catastrophe, EVERYTHING will get rather expensive. Given the direction things are going with Israel and Iran, and the other assorted players..... such an event really isn't so far fetched.

[sukeban]

I definitely agree with you that it's highly undesirable that the US doesn't, at present, really make anything apart from the weapons that our military uses. The bright side, I suppose, is that China primarily supplies us with consumer products, which, in a pinch, I would hope that we as Americans could do without. At some point in that scenario, markets would pick up the slack and revive our domestic manufacturing base; though as you said, prices would be substantially higher for things that we presently expect to be next-to-dirt-cheap.

 

That might not even be so terrible of a development either. Maybe it's better to have fewer high-quality things than having more low-quality things.

 

But, I'd rather have the Chinese producing consumer goods for us than producing our energy or, heaven forbid, our military equipment.

 

But really, I'd just like them to improve their labor and environmental regulations and revalue their currency based on actual market forces. After that their goods will become less competitive with ours and they'll have to find a new niche to specialize in. I am all for trading with China on a fair and mutually beneficial basis, but for too long we have been sold the swill water that unregulated free trade is better for everybody.

 

Buying cheap white tees at Wal-Mart is cool when you have a decent job, but it becomes far less cool when you used to make said plain white tees and are now unemployed.

Edited March 7, 2012 by sukeban