Israel and its Neighbors

[sukeban]

Changed mind yet again, maybe this topic will work.

 

Included: History, foreign policy, peace process, domestic politics, military strategy, etc.

Edited April 2, 2012 by sukeban

[Nintii]

I see no reason why your request to delete this topic would be invalid ...

 

But in response to your post ... a lot has been said in the Iran topic ... but have you projected the Middle East into let's say 10 to 15 yrs time ?

 

My crystal ball says ...

 

I predict a coalition of Arab states in North Africa forming an Islamic Union built on their common faith and hatred for Israel ... I predict that Arab nations that normally don't

make waves and go under the radar are going to be forced to choose sides ... the time for not attracting attention is over ... you're either in or you're out ... this type of pressure

will only be withstood by strong ties to allies.

Saudi Arabia will never backtrack on the West though there might be ups and downs ... it's in their interest to stay connected and protected.

Iraq will always be a hotbed of activity and Iran will always remain antagonistic to Israel and will be neutered while strengthening their ties to Russia ... who will be their biggest ally

and protector.

Hey, that sounds like now ... in which case nothing is going to change ... lastly, I predict that Israel will never give up.

Edited April 5, 2012 by Nintii

[grannywils]

I was friends many years ago with a Kurdish prince. He was from Syria and was in the U.S. for the very first time. He was alone, which was quite unusual, and the circumstances will remain unreported here. However, since he was alone, he had no idea how to do anything, as his "handlers" had always taken care of everything for him. As a result it fell upon my husband and me to escort him for a weekend and to help him make his way around New York. Others were caring for him during the rest of his visit.

 

All of this is by way of pointing out that we got to know him quite well in that short but intense time and had many fascinating conversations about the politics and religion and culture of the mid-east. He was quite an important personage, about to become the king of his tribe. Many things stuck with me, but the most fascinating of all was what he had to say about the Israeli people. Actually it was more about the Syrians' feeling towards the Israelis vs. the Russians for example. He said that any enemy who had a God was a more worthy enemy in the eyes of all the Arabs than any infidel enemy. While they would fight them, they still respected them. They held no respect for godless peoples.

 

This was many many years ago, and who knows if it still holds any water. We know that there is much hatred amongst Israel and all of her neighbors. However that fact has always stuck with me. In addition, I see so much about how the individual citizens of Palestine and Israel attempt to make peace among themselves.

 

My belief is that as in this country, if the governments would get the heck out of the way and stop stepping all over their own feet, peace would just maybe be possible.

 

 

[sukeban]

@grannywils

 

Maybe this topic can work after all :)

 

I 100% agree with your last sentence, that peace would be possible if Middle Eastern governments would only move out of the way.

 

I believe that the Likud Party in Israel has no intention of ever achieving peace, that their entire political and foreign policy platform would fall apart if this ever came to pass. That would start costing them elections, robbing them of their power and posh corner offices, of their vice-grip over Israeli politics. In other words, it is politically expedient to be at permanent war (either diplomatically or militarily) with the Arab world, that perpetuating the conflict reinforces their narrative that only hard-line policies work when dealing with their neighbors, and marginalizing any sort of liberal or moderate opposition.

 

I'd view it as similar to the Republican Party's desire for permanent war in the campaign against terrorism/rogue states. Not only is it beneficial for Republican donors (the defense establishment), it induces a state of fear in the rest of the population, making them more amenable to surrender their civil liberties and gravitate toward hard-line, militaristic solutions to any and all problems that might confront the nation. As problems and conflicts multiply, voters turn toward the "stern father" for answers, never really noticing that it was the militaristic and aggressive policies of said stern father that gave rise to (or exacerbated) these problems and conflicts to begin with. A virtuous cycle if you are a right-wing politician.

 

So it is beneficial to forever have a Palestinian bogeyman hiding under the bed of the Israeli population. At least it is beneficial for Likud. On the other side of the fence, however, this same state of affairs is also beneficial for Hamas. Hamas, and Yasser Arafat before them, has no real interest in seeing a peaceful resolution to this situation either. For exactly the same reasons as Likud. In a peaceful Palestine, what would be left for Hamas to run on? When people are no longer interested in their paramilitary power, what does Hamas really have to offer the nation? Nothing. Or at least not anything that has ever been articulated.

 

Hamas is the Likud Party's best friend, as the Likud Party is Hamas' best friend. Both allow the other to remain frozen in aspic in terms of their policy proscriptions, knowing that one hard-line solution will be reflected (like staring into a mirrored hallway) by their own hard-line solution, continuing down into forever. At some point, somebody needs to break this destructive co-dependence.

 

Which hopefully would be the actual people of these countries, rising up and telling their respective governments that enough is enough. It is the project of Likud and Hamas, however, to ensure that there is too much pain on both sides for this to ever happen, that their monopolies on power will be preserved by soaking their nations in blood, irredeemably embittering each toward the other, forever. Then there will never be a solution. Permanent war. Permanent political office. The right-wing parties win at the expense of their nations. Huzzah.

 

But I don't really know what the answer is. I don't know a realistic way of circumventing the cynicism of Likud and Hamas, to set aside years of mutual slaughter literally in spite of their own governments. If that is the case, then the right-wing project of Likud and Hamas has likely already succeeded.

Edited April 2, 2012 by sukeban

[HeyYou]

If Israel, and Palestine were a married couple, they would be filing for divorce (a long time ago....) for "irreconcilable differences"...... There isn't ever going to be peace there as long as there are both palestinians, and Israelis, exist at the same time. Neither side is willing to give the other what they really want. Israel is NEVER going to go back to the pre-1968 borders, they aren't going to give up a bunch of their settlements, regardless of if they were legal or not...... and Palestine is not going to be happy with the borders that Israel wants to draw. It is an impasse, and no amount of diplomacy is ever going to solve it.

 

With the Arab Spring goin' on.... Israel is more and more finding itself surrounding by (even more) hostile neighbors, and that isn't likely to improve either. Are we having fun yet?

[Aurielius]

If Israel, and Palestine were a married couple, they would be filing for divorce (a long time ago....) for "irreconcilable differences"...... There isn't ever going to be peace there as long as there are both palestinians, and Israelis, exist at the same time. Neither side is willing to give the other what they really want. Israel is NEVER going to go back to the pre-1968 borders, they aren't going to give up a bunch of their settlements, regardless of if they were legal or not...... and Palestine is not going to be happy with the borders that Israel wants to draw. It is an impasse, and no amount of diplomacy is ever going to solve it.

 

With the Arab Spring goin' on.... Israel is more and more finding itself surrounding by (even more) hostile neighbors, and that isn't likely to improve either. Are we having fun yet?

Using your analogy the problem is that both sides want to have the house in the divorce settlement.

[Nintii]

But only one is entitled to it ... the other is a squatter;

 

"A person who settles on land or occupies property without title, right, or payment of rent" ... which is what the Palestinians have done.

[HeyYou]

If Israel, and Palestine were a married couple, they would be filing for divorce (a long time ago....) for "irreconcilable differences"...... There isn't ever going to be peace there as long as there are both palestinians, and Israelis, exist at the same time. Neither side is willing to give the other what they really want. Israel is NEVER going to go back to the pre-1968 borders, they aren't going to give up a bunch of their settlements, regardless of if they were legal or not...... and Palestine is not going to be happy with the borders that Israel wants to draw. It is an impasse, and no amount of diplomacy is ever going to solve it.

 

With the Arab Spring goin' on.... Israel is more and more finding itself surrounding by (even more) hostile neighbors, and that isn't likely to improve either. Are we having fun yet?

Using your analogy the problem is that both sides want to have the house in the divorce settlement.

 

The house, the car, the kids, AND the pension payments from the (should be) disinterested third party, that isn't related to either of them. :D

[Aurielius]

If Israel, and Palestine were a married couple, they would be filing for divorce (a long time ago....) for "irreconcilable differences"...... There isn't ever going to be peace there as long as there are both palestinians, and Israelis, exist at the same time. Neither side is willing to give the other what they really want. Israel is NEVER going to go back to the pre-1968 borders, they aren't going to give up a bunch of their settlements, regardless of if they were legal or not...... and Palestine is not going to be happy with the borders that Israel wants to draw. It is an impasse, and no amount of diplomacy is ever going to solve it.

 

With the Arab Spring goin' on.... Israel is more and more finding itself surrounding by (even more) hostile neighbors, and that isn't likely to improve either. Are we having fun yet?

Using your analogy the problem is that both sides want to have the house in the divorce settlement.

 

The house, the car, the kids, AND the pension payments from the (should be) disinterested third party, that isn't related to either of them. :D

So thats means we are going to wait for the Martian Arbitration Team to land? :tongue:

[HeyYou]

If Israel, and Palestine were a married couple, they would be filing for divorce (a long time ago....) for "irreconcilable differences"...... There isn't ever going to be peace there as long as there are both palestinians, and Israelis, exist at the same time. Neither side is willing to give the other what they really want. Israel is NEVER going to go back to the pre-1968 borders, they aren't going to give up a bunch of their settlements, regardless of if they were legal or not...... and Palestine is not going to be happy with the borders that Israel wants to draw. It is an impasse, and no amount of diplomacy is ever going to solve it.

 

With the Arab Spring goin' on.... Israel is more and more finding itself surrounding by (even more) hostile neighbors, and that isn't likely to improve either. Are we having fun yet?

Using your analogy the problem is that both sides want to have the house in the divorce settlement.

 

The house, the car, the kids, AND the pension payments from the (should be) disinterested third party, that isn't related to either of them. :D

So thats means we are going to wait for the Martian Arbitration Team to land? :tongue:

 

That's about what it's gonna take to settle things there. Someone powerful enough to simply TELL THEM, "This is the way it's gonna be." No amount of diplomacy is going to solve the issues, or even alleviate them to the point that we don't have to worry about war in the region.