If you REALLY think about it...

[scottym23]

BEFORE YOU READ--

 

Hello, these are my thoughts on a certain topic that I hope at least some people have the patience to read so I can have a discussion going. Be warned though, it's very long and I know a lot of people don't want to read this much. But please don't get upset and post hateful comments because of that. If it is too long in your opinion and you don't feel like reading this, just get off of this topic, simple as that. If you are going to read it all though, thanks so much and I hope it gets you thinking as well!

 

 

I am an avid fallout fan and love each game in the series. I'm not a perfectionist and don't expect every single element and aspect of the story to be flawless, however there are a couple of gripes I have about not this game specifically but the concept surrounding the series in general. Although this game takes place in a different universe where there's a 50s vibe in a 21st century time, it's easy to relate it to our present situation (After all there was a time in the not too long ago past when the President later said himself there was a 50/50 chance of having a nuclear war with the Russians). And because of this the question came into my mind as I think it did a lot of other people's; would the after math of a world wide scaled nuclear war be similar to that of fallout? And at first when I gave it no thought at all and just generally played it out in my head for about a minute I said yeah probably since the U.S alone has enough nuclear bombs to cover all the land on earth 20x over (probably more now). But as I do many topics of discussion I thought about this scenario playing out in more depth and now I'm almost positive this wouldn't be possible, and here's my explanation:

 

REASONING---

 

When thinking about a world wide scaled apocalypse I try to put myself in the position of the people who matter in that situation; the people in power. I then tried to imagine what his priorities would be and then how to get them accomplished. The first goal I'd set if I was someone in power (let's just say the President of the United States) is how to "win" and what that actually means. That would mean destroying your enemies and ensuring the survivability of your allies. We'd set up bases in their Countries and missile defenses to destroy most if not all of incoming nuclear weapons. Of course the United States would start converting all factories that could potentially make these defensive machines into warehouses to manufacture them as fast as possible. Then they'd work on getting them distributed to key locations across the U.S by the level of priority (DC first, then other significant bases and such). After they had an adequate amount they'd continue to make them but not devote nearly as many resources to the production of the defensive machines, and start working on more offensive which is self explanatory and they won't need to make really that many more as far as a nuclear war is concerned. They'd start manufacturing weapons and armor for a post nuclear war (the wastelands) so that they can conquer and take control when it's all said and done. Once they've produced a sufficient amount of weapons/defenses, the President's priority would no doubt be prevention/preparation. This is where in my opinion fallout gets a little flawed and just makes you get over the fact that every game has it's weak points and to just ignore them. Because there was no reason (as far as I can gather) why they couldn't make extremely large shelters. There are already underground establishments and areas that are 10x larger than any "vault" in fallout. And even if there was a problem with building larger vaults, why couldn't they build like 50 vaults side by side and fill them with nothing but soldiers with tons of weapons, armors, ammunition, supplies, vehicles, and fuel? If you're going to have a nuclear war, then soldiers are virtually pointless until the bombs are done being dropped, and a soldier's only good if he/she isn't dead. So there's literally no reason not to do this. Also what I thought of as a great idea that I'd definitely do if I was calling the shots is to put settlements on Islands for people to live on to ensure that at least there's some form of a normal life for people after the bombs drop. There are literally thousands of Islands that have never been inhabited by humans or even discovered so of course the bombs won't ever land there. So why not put people on those islands? It only makes sense. And again, if you wanted you could put secret American and ally bases on them with supplies and vehicles to go to the mainland after the bombs drop and restore peace and order. So after all of that ranting and brainstorming, I have come to the conclusion that I personally believe that we could easily pull through and have a large amount of order restored extremely fast. Also on a side note that I just thought right this second; you could also put supplies to build houses and shelters/power supplies in the vaults/islands, and whatever technology you wanted to preserve plus the schematics just in case of a worst case situation inside the vaults/on the islands. Thanks for anyone who actually read all of what I wrote, I know for sure if certain people see this they'll comment, "TL:DR" and I understand haha. Please leave your comments on if you think i'm correct or if you think i'm completely wrong, either way I'd like to see what you have to say on the matter.

[7thsealord]

Extremely large shelters (or large groups of shelters) equals large, easier to find and easier to hit targets for the other side.

 

They MIGHT have had bigger Vaults or Vault equivalents around the place, but probably a lot of them became priority targets. Even the best shelter possible or even imaginable "might" stand up to one close hit from a small or mid-sized nuke, but multiple hits or hits by anything bigger will mean the END for that shelter.

[scottym23]

Extremely large shelters (or large groups of shelters) equals large, easier to find and easier to hit targets for the other side.

 

They MIGHT have had bigger Vaults or Vault equivalents around the place, but probably a lot of them became priority targets. Even the best shelter possible or even imaginable "might" stand up to one close hit from a small or mid-sized nuke, but multiple hits or hits by anything bigger will mean the END for that shelter.

 

I don't know if I understand what you're getting at to be perfectly honest. That the Chinese and other enemies with nukes somehow knew about these vaults and every single one's location, and then allocated nukes to fire directly at them? That's kind of absurd for a number of reasons lol. IF they even knew vaults existed (Which is a big if) they definitely didn't know where as they were hidden and kept very secretive. Plus they didn't fire millions of nukes at every square foot; there were probably entire towns that didn't even get a scratch on them i'm sure. And you completely left out the island idea, so I don't know what your thoughts are on them. Thanks for your input!

Edited July 19, 2012 by scottym23

[7thsealord]

Extremely large shelters (or large groups of shelters) equals large, easier to find and easier to hit targets for the other side.

 

They MIGHT have had bigger Vaults or Vault equivalents around the place, but probably a lot of them became priority targets. Even the best shelter possible or even imaginable "might" stand up to one close hit from a small or mid-sized nuke, but multiple hits or hits by anything bigger will mean the END for that shelter.

 

I don't know if I understand what you're getting at to be perfectly honest. That the Chinese and other enemies with nukes somehow knew about these vaults and every single one's location, and then allocated nukes to fire directly at them? That's kind of absurd for a number of reasons lol. IF they even knew vaults existed (Which is a big if) they definitely didn't know where as they were hidden and kept very secretive. Plus they didn't fire millions of nukes at every square foot; there were probably entire towns that didn't even get a scratch on them i'm sure. And you completely left out the island idea, so I don't know what your thoughts are on them. Thanks for your input!

 

Sorry, but the location of the Vaults were public knowledge. There are various in-game references to people trying to get in to specific Vaults when the War started (refer the Keller Family tapes, amongst others) - plus adverts, acceptance/rejection letters in the post, a great big prominently-marked office building processing applicants, a large exhibit at the Technology Museum, and so on. Unless the Chinese were unbelievably incompetent, they couldn't help but be aware of the existance of these Vaults and, at the very least, where their access points were. Certainly, everybody else did.

 

Plus, how do you think Vaults would be built in the first place? Even a modest-sized installation would require the removal of a HUGE quantity of rock and dirt. Plus a heckuva lot of stuff that would be going in. Lots of trucks. LOts of machinery. Lots of workers. There is very simply no way in the universe that all this activity could be concealed, and indications are that Vault-Tec and the US government didn't even try.

 

Also, seems to me that most of the nukes to hit the DC area were comparitively small. Why? Because, even after 200 years, there are still an awful lot of buildings still standing, especially downtown. Which is probably also why a lot of the Vaults came through as well as they did (structurally speaking, anyhow). If the Big Nukes had gotten through, the DC Wastes would have been a series of big glassy interlocking craters and the Vaults would have been trace elements in the rock strata below said craters. Even the best nuclear shelters imaginable can only stand up to so much.

 

And I am sorry that my failure to cover your island idea offends you so.

[scottym23]

Extremely large shelters (or large groups of shelters) equals large, easier to find and easier to hit targets for the other side.

 

They MIGHT have had bigger Vaults or Vault equivalents around the place, but probably a lot of them became priority targets. Even the best shelter possible or even imaginable "might" stand up to one close hit from a small or mid-sized nuke, but multiple hits or hits by anything bigger will mean the END for that shelter.

 

I don't know if I understand what you're getting at to be perfectly honest. That the Chinese and other enemies with nukes somehow knew about these vaults and every single one's location, and then allocated nukes to fire directly at them? That's kind of absurd for a number of reasons lol. IF they even knew vaults existed (Which is a big if) they definitely didn't know where as they were hidden and kept very secretive. Plus they didn't fire millions of nukes at every square foot; there were probably entire towns that didn't even get a scratch on them i'm sure. And you completely left out the island idea, so I don't know what your thoughts are on them. Thanks for your input!

 

Sorry, but the location of the Vaults were public knowledge. There are various in-game references to people trying to get in to specific Vaults when the War started (refer the Keller Family tapes, amongst others) - plus adverts, acceptance/rejection letters in the post, a great big prominently-marked office building processing applicants, a large exhibit at the Technology Museum, and so on. Unless the Chinese were unbelievably incompetent, they couldn't help but be aware of the existance of these Vaults and, at the very least, where their access points were. Certainly, everybody else did.

 

Plus, how do you think Vaults would be built in the first place? Even a modest-sized installation would require the removal of a HUGE quantity of rock and dirt. Plus a heckuva lot of stuff that would be going in. Lots of trucks. LOts of machinery. Lots of workers. There is very simply no way in the universe that all this activity could be concealed, and indications are that Vault-Tec and the US government didn't even try.

 

Also, seems to me that most of the nukes to hit the DC area were comparitively small. Why? Because, even after 200 years, there are still an awful lot of buildings still standing, especially downtown. Which is probably also why a lot of the Vaults came through as well as they did (structurally speaking, anyhow). If the Big Nukes had gotten through, the DC Wastes would have been a series of big glassy interlocking craters and the Vaults would have been trace elements in the rock strata below said craters. Even the best nuclear shelters imaginable can only stand up to so much.

 

And I am sorry that my failure to cover your island idea offends you so.

 

I see your point, but it's not valid in the scenario i'm referring to. If the President ordered the production of vaults that would hold soldiers and/or supplies, they obviously wouldn't be open to the public and definitely wouldn't have any records of them even existing in official buildings. Remember now, what i'm suggestion is an alternative to what ACTUALLY happened. I know that in the fallout world they made everything public, but do you honestly think our government as of now would make such secure places public, knowing full well of spies? That's also a flaw I see in their system, but again we are talking about if that scenario could happen in OUR universe as of now. The U.S government already has large scale secrets that even the people in America don't know exist. If they were to make fallout shelters, they'd be in remote parts of the country and be put together very discretely.

 

Plus I like the fact how you mention the Island idea and fail a second time to speak of it lol.

 

Again thanks for your thoughts though!

[7thsealord]

Keep such a large-scale undertaking (or set thereof) completely secret?

 

Sorry, really can't see it happen. There is the money/paper trail - there IS going to be one. There are the logistics - they have to get a construction force from somewhere, and people are going to notice that. There are the troops that are assigned to those installations, PLUS all their dependants and acquaintances (think that ain't gonna leak?). There is the civil/military leadership and THEIR dependants and acquaintances.

 

Plus, for the present day, I give you two words. Google Earth.

 

As the old saying goes, "Two people can keep a secret if one of them is dead." Lot more than two people involved here.

 

PLUS, such a measure probably works better if the other side DOES know about it - "If you ever go ahead and nuke us, we are ready for you". No technical data or exact locales, just a quiet general statement of what is going on. Gives the other side a whole new set of factors to take into account before they try anything. Lot of that sort of thing went on during the Cold War.

Edited July 20, 2012 by 7thsealord

[scottym23]

Keep such a large-scale undertaking (or set thereof) completely secret?

 

Sorry, really can't see it happen. There is the money/paper trail - there IS going to be one. There are the logistics - they have to get a construction force from somewhere, and people are going to notice that. There are the troops that are assigned to those installations, PLUS all their dependants and acquaintances (think that ain't gonna leak?). There is the civil/military leadership and THEIR dependants and acquaintances.

 

Plus, for the present day, I give you two words. Google Earth.

 

As the old saying goes, "Two people can keep a secret if one of them is dead." Lot more than two people involved here.

 

PLUS, such a measure probably works better if the other side DOES know about it - "If you ever go ahead and nuke us, we are ready for you". No technical data or exact locales, just a quiet general statement of what is going on. Gives the other side a whole new set of factors to take into account before they try anything. Lot of that sort of thing went on during the Cold War.

 

If you honestly think our government can't keep a secret of this magnitude, then you're really naive (sorry to put it so bluntly). Did you know that area 51 isn't on Google Earth, even though people can go there and actually see the warning signs? Try to look it up, it's just completely blank where the base is. If the U.S wanted to hide a couple of vaults they could do it anywhere at all with ease. You don't have to broadcast that you're making a vault to the world; they could say they're doing construction on a building and build the vault under it. They'd hide the actual pieces and equipment under sheets and covers to hide what was actually going on. It's really not as hard as you think to keep a secret. I don't know if you're aware of this by your previous comment, but there are people whose jobs require confidentiality and they don't even tell their own spouses about it. My psychology teacher's husband works for the military and can't discuss anything he does with her. She even told us that they sometimes joke and she'll ask him, "How was work?" and they'll both laugh. That's the same with many other jobs like doctors and psychiatrists. So if a soldier had a covert operation he had to go to that was top secret, and then he was briefed on the severity and risk he'd be putting on not only his country but also his family's safety if he were to tell them about it; they definitely wouldn't tell anyone. As far as the higher ups go, they've been keeping secrets from the start. As long as there's been government there have been people in it keeping secrets. There's no denying that. And we would keep only a couple vaults "top" secret, and the other vaults secretive. So in conclusion they certainly could make a couple vaults top secret and not let the word leak. Larger secrets have been kept and covered up by the government many times before.

 

On a side note-- I hope you're not the type of person to being closed to changing his/her view on a situation, otherwise this argument will go on forever unless you convince me i'm wrong (which i'm completely willing to let that happen, you just haven't done it yet).

 

ALSO if you're so against the "secretive" part being impossible in our country, why don't you actually address the idea of putting secret vaults on uncharted islands?

 

Again thanks for your comment, they're greatly appreciated!

Edited July 20, 2012 by scottym23

[7thsealord]

Keep such a large-scale undertaking (or set thereof) completely secret?

 

Sorry, really can't see it happen. There is the money/paper trail - there IS going to be one. There are the logistics - they have to get a construction force from somewhere, and people are going to notice that. There are the troops that are assigned to those installations, PLUS all their dependants and acquaintances (think that ain't gonna leak?). There is the civil/military leadership and THEIR dependants and acquaintances.

 

Plus, for the present day, I give you two words. Google Earth.

 

As the old saying goes, "Two people can keep a secret if one of them is dead." Lot more than two people involved here.

 

PLUS, such a measure probably works better if the other side DOES know about it - "If you ever go ahead and nuke us, we are ready for you". No technical data or exact locales, just a quiet general statement of what is going on. Gives the other side a whole new set of factors to take into account before they try anything. Lot of that sort of thing went on during the Cold War.

 

If you honestly think our government can't keep a secret of this magnitude, then you're really naive (sorry to put it so bluntly). Did you know that area 51 isn't on Google Earth, even though people can go there and actually see the warning signs? Try to look it up, it's just completely blank where the base is. If the U.S wanted to hide a couple of vaults they could do it anywhere at all with ease. You don't have to broadcast that you're making a vault to the world; they could say they're doing construction on a building and build the vault under it. They'd hide the actual pieces and equipment under sheets and covers to hide what was actually going on. It's really not as hard as you think to keep a secret. I don't know if you're aware of this by your previous comment, but there are people whose jobs require confidentiality and they don't even tell their own spouses about it. My psychology teacher's husband works for the military and can't discuss anything he does with her. She even told us that they sometimes joke and she'll ask him, "How was work?" and they'll both laugh. That's the same with many other jobs like doctors and psychiatrists. So if a soldier had a covert operation he had to go to that was top secret, and then he was briefed on the severity and risk he'd be putting on not only his country but also his family's safety if he were to tell them about it; they definitely wouldn't tell anyone. As far as the higher ups go, they've been keeping secrets from the start. As long as there's been government there have been people in it keeping secrets. There's no denying that. And we would keep only a couple vaults "top" secret, and the other vaults secretive. So in conclusion they certainly could make a couple vaults top secret and not let the word leak. Larger secrets have been kept and covered up by the government many times before.

 

On a side note-- I hope you're not the type of person to being closed to changing his/her view on a situation, otherwise this argument will go on forever unless you convince me i'm wrong (which i'm completely willing to let that happen, you just haven't done it yet).

 

ALSO if you're so against the "secretive" part being impossible in our country, why don't you actually address the idea of putting secret vaults on uncharted islands?

 

Again thanks for your comment, they're greatly appreciated!

 

The US government had Area 51 'mostly" removed from Google Earth very belatedly. Quite a few pics still out there if one knows where to look. Also still a lot of satellites up there, private and otherwise, which are undoubtedly still taking some very nice pics of the area.

 

..... And personal accusations of naivety and closemindedness do NOT make for a healthy or polite discussion - which is what I thought we were having until now. Rather than respond to that, I am opting out of this thread, thank you. Carry on without me.

[Talwyn224]

The Vaults were public knowledge and most were completed by 2063.

 

Read all about it here:

 

http://www.falloutwiki.com/Vault

 

 

Apparently they had a very good chance of surviving a direct nuclear hit as well.

[scottym23]

Keep such a large-scale undertaking (or set thereof) completely secret?

 

Sorry, really can't see it happen. There is the money/paper trail - there IS going to be one. There are the logistics - they have to get a construction force from somewhere, and people are going to notice that. There are the troops that are assigned to those installations, PLUS all their dependants and acquaintances (think that ain't gonna leak?). There is the civil/military leadership and THEIR dependants and acquaintances.

 

Plus, for the present day, I give you two words. Google Earth.

 

As the old saying goes, "Two people can keep a secret if one of them is dead." Lot more than two people involved here.

 

PLUS, such a measure probably works better if the other side DOES know about it - "If you ever go ahead and nuke us, we are ready for you". No technical data or exact locales, just a quiet general statement of what is going on. Gives the other side a whole new set of factors to take into account before they try anything. Lot of that sort of thing went on during the Cold War.

 

 

 

If you honestly think our government can't keep a secret of this magnitude, then you're really naive (sorry to put it so bluntly). Did you know that area 51 isn't on Google Earth, even though people can go there and actually see the warning signs? Try to look it up, it's just completely blank where the base is. If the U.S wanted to hide a couple of vaults they could do it anywhere at all with ease. You don't have to broadcast that you're making a vault to the world; they could say they're doing construction on a building and build the vault under it. They'd hide the actual pieces and equipment under sheets and covers to hide what was actually going on. It's really not as hard as you think to keep a secret. I don't know if you're aware of this by your previous comment, but there are people whose jobs require confidentiality and they don't even tell their own spouses about it. My psychology teacher's husband works for the military and can't discuss anything he does with her. She even told us that they sometimes joke and she'll ask him, "How was work?" and they'll both laugh. That's the same with many other jobs like doctors and psychiatrists. So if a soldier had a covert operation he had to go to that was top secret, and then he was briefed on the severity and risk he'd be putting on not only his country but also his family's safety if he were to tell them about it; they definitely wouldn't tell anyone. As far as the higher ups go, they've been keeping secrets from the start. As long as there's been government there have been people in it keeping secrets. There's no denying that. And we would keep only a couple vaults "top" secret, and the other vaults secretive. So in conclusion they certainly could make a couple vaults top secret and not let the word leak. Larger secrets have been kept and covered up by the government many times before.

 

On a side note-- I hope you're not the type of person to being closed to changing his/her view on a situation, otherwise this argument will go on forever unless you convince me i'm wrong (which i'm completely willing to let that happen, you just haven't done it yet).

 

ALSO if you're so against the "secretive" part being impossible in our country, why don't you actually address the idea of putting secret vaults on uncharted islands?

 

Again thanks for your comment, they're greatly appreciated!

 

The US government had Area 51 'mostly" removed from Google Earth very belatedly. Quite a few pics still out there if one knows where to look. Also still a lot of satellites up there, private and otherwise, which are undoubtedly still taking some very nice pics of the area.

 

..... And personal accusations of naivety and closemindedness do NOT make for a healthy or polite discussion - which is what I thought we were having until now. Rather than respond to that, I am opting out of this thread, thank you. Carry on without me.

And strike 3 without mentioning the Island idea! Yayy I win the argument :)