XCOM EU A True Shot %

[KoaBosk]

I have noticed that the % to hit is not true. To test my theory, I saved the game just before a shot that had around 80% chance to hit, that missed. I reloaded it and shot several more times and missed every time. It was not until I moved another unit to a new position and the first unit was able to hit. I believe that the program rolls for all possible attacks every time a unit moves and not when a player actually hits the fire button. Can someone fix this?

[CabooseNor]

The reason you missed every time is because the game uses seeds. This prevents you from save-scumming.

 

The chances are correct, but if a shot missed before you loaded, it will miss after you loaded too.

Edited November 12, 2012 by CabooseNor

[Drone456]

CabooseNor is correct.

 

A link showing a discussion on this issue, which was informative to me.

http://forums.2kgames.com/showthread.php?160751-Hit-Chances-are-pre-determined-in-every-single-turn-or-not

 

A quick quote from it if you don't feel like reading it lol.

 

The use of the term "pre-determined" is not accurate at all, and is leading people to think their actions have no impact.

 

The "seed" is essentially a start place in the random number sequence (different seeds are used to ensure you don't get the same sequence of random numbers every time you play the game), and an algorithm runs based on that seed to generate a random number whenever one is requested. Yes, if you know the algorithm, the seed and the number of random number requests made since the seed was set, that random number is predictable.

 

As has been discussed the seed is saved. If you take actions that use, for example, the 10th random number based on the seed (let's say you take shot 10) that 10th random number will always be same, no matter how many times you reload.

 

If you reload and take actions to ensure that the 10th random number is not used (for example, by taking shots in different orders, letting the AI take shots without response etc) then you will get a different random number when you come to shot in question (although the observable result may not change of course).

 

As for chucking smoke etc - well if you're still using the 10th Random Number (in this example) and it happens to be particularly low, modifying the CTH with smoke or other effects may not be enough to overcome the low random being generated.

 

However, nothing is "predetermined" in any gameplay effecting way. This phenomenon is only evident if you are trying to to play the game outside the rules laid down by the developers i.e. trying to cheat death through reloads.

 

I would like a true random hit chance generator as well though. Although if you're not save scumming I don't think it would really feel different from what I understood of what I read.

[FlyingHigh10000000]

I like the current RNG system. It prevents people that suck at tactics from reloading after every single mistake until they get their "perfect" game, and also means that I can reload after a crash and get the same results as before.

[KoaBosk]

That makes some sense. If it is still random and a true % to hit. It just bothered me that when I did reload it, it was the same shot and missed every time, and I didn't want to lose my one and only Colonel.

[FlyingHigh10000000]

That's part of X-Com's fun, though. If you lose your only Colonel, it's likely because you didn't protect him/her enough, and got a bit careless. The RNG seed system is there to make saving/reloading for different results, like people did in the original game, impossible, and presumably also to allow people whose games crash to recover their results without having to hope for the same results, since the results are prepared, so to speak.

[willssi]

Right, the game saves the RNG values to complicate save scumming. A great article on it (a bit of math to wet your appetite) is here: http://sinepost.wordpress.com/2012/10/26/probability-in-games-xcom/

[Vinterdimma]

So, they added Iron Man for those who wan't to play it true, but for those who don't want to play it true, they still try to force it on you? What's the logic in this? If people want to save and load, let them, for those who prefer it Iron Man, well, the option is there!

[osito2dancer]

So, they added Iron Man for those who wan't to play it true, but for those who don't want to play it true, they still try to force it on you? What's the logic in this? If people want to save and load, let them, for those who prefer it Iron Man, well, the option is there!

 

The good thing about having saves to rely on, is that you can project your moves and, if not succesful, you can opt to do it differently. It is quite common sense that, if you do things the same way every time, the outcome should not differ, and the SEED RNG accomplishes just that. If you don't like an outcome, dont do the things the same way: Move differently, shoot with another soldier first, do an OW trap, i dont know, blow the damn aliens with your grenades or rockets, do a suppression run... the limit is your own smarts and tactics.

[Vinterdimma]

True, but the reason people wants to save and load is to they can get another random number. Now the game doesn't work for that, I know that. But it's a rather dumb thing, I think. Iron Man is there for the people who don't save adn reload. The people who don't use it and want to save and reload still can't. There's no good reason for it. They might as well let people save and reload and get another random number, what's it to them? If someone wants to do it, let them. It's been done for ages, and why should someone suddenly do it this way instead?

 

Personally I always play Iron Man regardless, but I think it's a dumb thing to pull on people.