A hypothetical future

[exanimis]

We all hope for a better future. We hope that our governments can solve the current financial crises that is effecting the entire world. We look forward to a better life for ourselves and our children. We hope that future generations have a much better life than we have but what if?

 

What if the future we hope for doesn't happen? What if the current crises evolves into an unstoppable monster?

 

In the United States of America, experts expect there to be an estimated one million children to become homeless within the next year. One Million children! That's not counting their parents.

Can you imagine looking across a field where one million children have gathered?

 

Last night I saw a show about how bad the economy has gotten. The show interviewed and showed the effects of the economy on one man, his wife and their two children. Two years ago he was earning $750,000 a year. He lost his job and after almost two years of searching for another, he went to a local restaurant and begged the manager for any job at all. Today he makes $7.50 an hour delivering pizzas. He qualifies for food stamps and his family receives $500 a month in food stamps. That may sound like a lot for groceries but that is only $125 a month for each of them. I personally could eat that much in a week, two weeks at the most.

 

I know that here in the states there are many who will say that President Obama will fix everything, That's not what this thread is about. This thread is about a hypothetical future where everything gets worse. A future where the governments don't fix everything. A future where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

 

What if? What can we do to prepare for the worse?

 

Let's consider a few items that we have all heard of. Gun control, an economic collapse and a faulty industrially controlled government. I'll begin with this scenario,

 

Let's say that in the next three years the following events happen.

 

1. The current economic crises continually spirals out of control. The estimated expected number of homeless children in the next years jumps from 1 to 4 million. Unemployment jumps from the current 8% to 15%. Homeless camps spring up all over the world. The homeless gather in these camps in order to help each other. The price of oil tops $100 a barrel and people at the pumps suffer. The housing market continues to fall creating even more homeless. Prices continually climb due to the cost of transportation. The amount of goods sold continues to drop as more and more people can't afford to buy. Store shelves grow ever increasingly bare and people stand in line to purchase essentials like toilet paper and bread.(it happened in Russia) Our bankrupt government can no longer afford the billions going out to pay for food stamps, social security and unemployment, these programs are canceled. Half of the worlds population lives in cities today, as the economy bottoms out these people begin starving. Cities become war zones, anything that can be stolen and traded for food is. People protesting the governments inability to help it's citizens riot.

 

2. The ever increasing violence forces the U.S. Government to change the constitution, outlawing the right to own guns. The military and police are used to enforce gun control and to initiate martial law. The distance that you are allowed to travel are now under government control. A person living in Richmond Virginia can only visit their mother in Washington D.C. if they can produce the proper documentation. Universal health care is in effect but with rising prices of equipment and supplies and the decrease in the pay rate for doctors and nurses, it is almost imposable to receive any amount of medical help. There is an exodus of those financially able to leave the United States as they travel to other countries in an effort to maintain their lifestyle. The numbers of poor people and homeless grows. Militia groups who have defied the government and kept their guns fight small battles and skirmishes with the police and military. The militia's membership grows in each state as people become more and more disillusioned with their government. The media spouts propaganda about how the government is still working and that militia's are terrorists. This news doesn't get to the millions of homeless who don't watch TV and no longer trust the government. Troops return home only to find themselves sent into danger zones to fight against their own countrymen. Police and military desertion become increasingly normal.

 

3. America's military might is weakened, other countries see the problems in America broadcast over every news channel. America's problems become doors of opportunity to those who would cause harm to our way of life. Terrorist attacks are much smaller but ever increasing. Allied Countries once protected by or defended by America are now under attack. World War III is on the horizon. States like Texas attempt to or threaten to succeed from the union, becoming separate countries.

 

The average person in the US no longer sees this as a sustainable society. They have lost jobs, homes and hopes for the future. The country is falling apart and the poorest are suffering through it. Everywhere you go you see lines of people waiting for a hand out, you see violence on every corner. You are one of the fortunate, you have managed to keep your job but as you get ready for work, you worry that that job isn't guaranteed, you might loose it today. You barley earn enough to survive. You have a car but can't afford the taxes, gas, inspections or insurance for it. With the increase of military and police personnel in your area, you don't dare drive it. You own a home but are one payment from loosing it, you might be able to pay that payment next week but then the electric company will cut off your power. You don't dare to let your children leave the house, not even for school.

 

I'm sure that if you have read this far, you have your own opinions as to what part of this post is possible or impossible. That brings me to the purpose of this thread. Discuss what you think could or couldn't happen and what we can do today to prepare for it.

 

A couple of rules:

 

1: Be respectful of others opinions and ideas, don't come on this thread just to flame someone who doesn't have the same views as yourself.

 

2: There are plenty of those 'Things will get better" threads. This thread is about IF they do not. Don't come on here spouting praises or rejections of Obama or any political leader for their efforts.

[Orchidea]

asdasd!!"#! too much to read.

[xdthisusernamelol]

Why this Depression will last longer than the one in the 1930s:

 

America, when it did eventually come out of the 1930s economic crisis, did so by using the ideas of Keynes, an economist from the United Kingdom, that said that money should be given to the lower classes to spend instead of given to the upper classes to 'trickle down.' At the time, that idea was possible because America was doing the latter.

 

Now America is already allowing the lower classes to spend more money, so what do they do now? What can they do, other than a change in society and popular culture? And, seriously, how likely is that in one of the few places on earth where popular culture is more powerful than popular opinion?

[XanAlderon]

The economic crisis should be solved via going out and buying as much local products as possible.

[xdthisusernamelol]

That was what was happening before the economic crisis - it won't change anything now.

[Neuri]

Everything is wrong. Today's society is driven by greed. A need for Mamon, material things. Everything is geared up for a wastefull society. Capitalism as we have experienced it over the years has failed us, the unwashed majority. I hope that this economic crisis creates a level playing-field. Those greedy few at the top have a long way to fall. I'll stand back and watch them- with a smile on my face -as they succum to their enevitable failures.

 

Who in their right mind needs millions of dollars/pounds/euros?

[del1diablo]

2. The ever increasing violence forces the U.S. Government to change the constitution, outlawing the right to own guns.The military and police are used to enforce gun control

 

Which is a good thing.

 

The distance that you are allowed to travel are now under government control. A person living in Richmond Virginia can only visit their mother in Washington D.C. if they can produce the proper documentation.

 

If that happens its going down under. Nobody who is sane would make that happen, because the only effect it would spew out would be chaos and rebellion among with other things that are bad.

 

Universal health care is in effect but with rising prices of equipment and supplies and the decrease in the pay rate for doctors and nurses, it is almost imposable to receive any amount of medical help. There is an exodus of those financially able to leave the United States as they travel to other countries in an effort to maintain their lifestyle.

 

Its already happening today, people are leaving 3rd world countries because they can't make any money there and the costs of living and medicine is at the same time at the costs of 1st world countries and thus go towards first world countries.

 

The numbers of poor people and homeless grows. Militia groups who have defied the government and kept their guns fight small battles and skirmishes with the police and military. The militia's membership grows in each state as people become more and more disillusioned with their government. The media spouts propaganda about how the government is still working and that militia's are terrorists. This news doesn't get to the millions of homeless who don't watch TV and no longer trust the government. Troops return home only to find themselves sent into danger zones to fight against their own countrymen. Police and military desertion become increasingly normal.

 

A milita will only rise if the goverment is making matters worse OR they are "Not helping" at all. A civil war would not happen that easy. It would take a whole lot more of corruption and in that case a simple overthrowing would work better.

 

3. America's military might is weakened, other countries see the problems in America broadcast over every news channel. America's problems become doors of opportunity to those who would cause harm to our way of life. Terrorist attacks are much smaller but ever increasing. Allied Countries once protected by or defended by America are now under attack. World War III is on the horizon. States like Texas attempt to or threaten to succeed from the union, becoming separate countries.

 

Again pure paranoia. The chance of US being attack is greater when your acting like pompus assholes spewing out propaganda and joning random wars along with having troops stationed damn knows where just to have a legal excuse to lay siege on country far outside your borders.

World War 3 and WW3, it would take the whole world to do that. If Europa assaults you then its will be the "Euro-American War", etc.

And "protected or defended by America" is somewhat close to pure bullshit, its more like in South Korea where you got troops for the excuse of laying war on the North if they attack. And what is this grand illusion on that if you pull your troops out of varius countries a giantic war or sorts will start?

 

The average person in the US no longer sees this as a sustainable society. They have lost jobs, homes and hopes for the future. The country is falling apart and the poorest are suffering through it. Everywhere you go you see lines of people waiting for a hand out, you see violence on every corner. You are one of the fortunate, you have managed to keep your job but as you get ready for work, you worry that that job isn't guaranteed, you might loose it today. You barley earn enough to survive. You have a car but can't afford the taxes, gas, inspections or insurance for it. With the increase of military and police personnel in your area, you don't dare drive it. You own a home but are one payment from loosing it, you might be able to pay that payment next week but then the electric company will cut off your power. You don't dare to let your children leave the house, not even for school.

 

Sounds like a few places in Africa to me. So really its nothing serius.

 

My view on Obama is that he is another president. Sure he got idelogies and stuff, but he is still 1 person. He got limited power, and the people selected for the White House along with his appointment list is not helping.

[starbug9]

Everything is wrong. Today's society is driven by greed. A need for Mamon, material things. Everything is geared up for a wastefull society. Capitalism as we have experienced it over the years has failed us, the unwashed majority. I hope that this economic crisis creates a level playing-field. Those greedy few at the top have a long way to fall. I'll stand back and watch them- with a smile on my face -as they succum to their enevitable failures.

 

Am I the only one who thinks that's a bit harsh? I don't think it's wrong, but in mostly stable global conditions, especially post 2000, there's plenty of decent rich people floating around. Do remember that it didn't take THAT many people to start the whole financial crisis and consider just how many wealthy businesspeople there are out there. Admittedly people do like to hold on to their money when it all starts going away but it's an instinct reaction, they're scared. Some are greedy bastards, but most of them are probably getting stingy because they don't know what else to do, and that's what's going to keep shooting America, and other countries, in the foot - the people who have money to spend won't be the ones spending money.

[starbug9]

1. The current economic crises continually spirals out of control. The estimated expected number of homeless children in the next years jumps from 1 to 4 million. Unemployment jumps from the current 8% to 15%. Homeless camps spring up all over the world. The homeless gather in these camps in order to help each other. The price of oil tops $100 a barrel and people at the pumps suffer. The housing market continues to fall creating even more homeless. Prices continually climb due to the cost of transportation. The amount of goods sold continues to drop as more and more people can't afford to buy. Store shelves grow ever increasingly bare and people stand in line to purchase essentials like toilet paper and bread.(it happened in Russia) Our bankrupt government can no longer afford the billions going out to pay for food stamps, social security and unemployment, these programs are canceled. Half of the worlds population lives in cities today, as the economy bottoms out these people begin starving. Cities become war zones, anything that can be stolen and traded for food is. People protesting the governments inability to help it's citizens riot.

 

 

I'm sure the major world powers are aware of the potential for a problem like this and will probably actually do something if and when it starts happening. Worse case scenario, yes this is entirely plausible, but I highly doubt you could figure all of this out while the world's brightest and/or leaders fumble around scratching their heads, no offense. The thing with hypotheticals like this is that they are already conceived hypothetical scenarios. People will see something like this happening, what they do could, by some horrible quirk of fate, make it worse, but it's unlikely. The UN will probably step in, or try to step in, if things get right out of hand. Currency reset, or whatever that is, regulating currency/destroying excess currency, setting up temporary fixed currency values - there's a lot of ways to get this sorted out, many of which could effectively eliminate bankruptcy worldwide. Money is an interesting thing in that, if it does get really, really, really out of hand, we can actually do whatever we want to fix it.

 

 

2. The ever increasing violence forces the U.S. Government to change the constitution, outlawing the right to own guns. The military and police are used to enforce gun control and to initiate martial law. The distance that you are allowed to travel are now under government control. A person living in Richmond Virginia can only visit their mother in Washington D.C. if they can produce the proper documentation. Universal health care is in effect but with rising prices of equipment and supplies and the decrease in the pay rate for doctors and nurses, it is almost imposable to receive any amount of medical help. There is an exodus of those financially able to leave the United States as they travel to other countries in an effort to maintain their lifestyle. The numbers of poor people and homeless grows. Militia groups who have defied the government and kept their guns fight small battles and skirmishes with the police and military. The militia's membership grows in each state as people become more and more disillusioned with their government. The media spouts propaganda about how the government is still working and that militia's are terrorists. This news doesn't get to the millions of homeless who don't watch TV and no longer trust the government. Troops return home only to find themselves sent into danger zones to fight against their own countrymen. Police and military desertion become increasingly normal.

 

 

Okay, assuming the world's currency gets screwed over, that would be a hard change to make considering how attached many Americans are to their guns and how many people in the US Government will be attached to their guns. Martial law would probably sooner be a civil war, for a while at least, and things would, as you suggest, just disintegrate after long enough. By this stage all quick fix solutions are probably useless and any real improvement is going to take time. Seriously, though, the US isn't stupid enough to try and ban guns at a time like this and really isn't stupid enough to enforce martial law, I think they'd see the potential drawbacks.

 

 

3. America's military might is weakened, other countries see the problems in America broadcast over every news channel. America's problems become doors of opportunity to those who would cause harm to our way of life. Terrorist attacks are much smaller but ever increasing. Allied Countries once protected by or defended by America are now under attack. World War III is on the horizon. States like Texas attempt to or threaten to succeed from the union, becoming separate countries.

 

The average person in the US no longer sees this as a sustainable society. They have lost jobs, homes and hopes for the future. The country is falling apart and the poorest are suffering through it. Everywhere you go you see lines of people waiting for a hand out, you see violence on every corner. You are one of the fortunate, you have managed to keep your job but as you get ready for work, you worry that that job isn't guaranteed, you might loose it today. You barley earn enough to survive. You have a car but can't afford the taxes, gas, inspections or insurance for it. With the increase of military and police personnel in your area, you don't dare drive it. You own a home but are one payment from loosing it, you might be able to pay that payment next week but then the electric company will cut off your power. You don't dare to let your children leave the house, not even for school.

 

 

Do remember Europe is still in play, and Russia doesn't want to nuke the US or any of her 'protected' countries, there's no point and, amazingly, Russia probably isn't a country of pure evil that wants to kill hundreds of millions of people. Some of the bigger players might get a bit adventurous in their expansionist policy, but they would have no reason to openly attack any countries the US has been covering, a subtle takeover, possibly, but nothing drastic. If anything they'd go for the US itself, being the only one with any real incentive to attack, and even then nukes or large scale assaults would just be destroying what they would be trying to get in the first place. Unless there is a substantial potential payoff for doing something stupid and rash I really doubt any country is going to start pushing its borders very far at all. Mexico seceding I can see. It would help them get out of the whole mess.

 

And a result that extreme is, well, extreme. Even in the extremely extreme worst case scenario there would have to be forces in play actively trying to destroy America for that to happen - it's just not feasible that a first world country could become that unstable and nobody and nothing can or will stop it getting worse. The further it goes, the harder it is to stop, but there's also more of a reason to stop it. Still, this is a hypothetical...

 

Basically it's a yes, I think that it is 'possible'. Could it happen? No.

[Vagrant0]

The hypothetical is just that, the hypothetical. The only thing all this gloom and doom will accomplish is bringing about exactly what people are saying. The reality is that although things are bad in many places, it could be worse. Do some reading on how bad the real great depression was, talk to some of the people who experienced it. We don't have a dustbowl which is killing the agricultural sector, we don't have a ban on alcohol which is depriving the state of tax dollars, killing another sector of the industry, and only ends up putting money in the hands of criminals and corrupt officials, we don't have people pulling all their money out of the banks in a panic. What we have is really a reality check of sorts. People who were living above their means are finding out that sometimes you can't have everything you want. CEOs and other higher corporate jobs are being looked at with even more scrutiny, having to be forced into accountability for a job which really isn't too well defined. Laws are being passed to limit the effect of corporate corruption. Manufacturing and energy industries are being restructured for more modern applications and methods. The infastructure, roads, bridges, are getting some much needed TLC. The american auto industry, which has been broken for the last 14 years, is finally getting the hint that maybe a 5 ton vehicle with a 5mpg fuel efficiency isn't the most practical thing to be selling, to anyone. We will pull through, and provided that all of this leaves enough of an impact, the now maturing generation will probably be better as a result of not being nearly as spoiled as the 2 or 3 prior.

 

While the bottom up stimulus plan looks good on paper, the reality is that it really didn't work to solve the problem, just help ease the effect slightly. This is afterall why the first stimulus bill was done last year, and again this year. It didn't work because most of what people bought were gas and televisions. Money from gas goes to the oil companies, which in turn get used to pay for some nice beachfront property in Dubai. Money from televisions goes to China, and in some way, helps fund the next round of stimulus/bailout. Technically, those big parties that the banks were throwing with government money ended up having a greater boon to the local economy since they were paying for catering, service staff, accommodations, and so on, with each of those parties then being able to pay wages, buy equipment, pay off business loans.

 

The better solution I've heard was to just have the american government pay people to junk cars which are over 8 years old, and have a gas milage worse than 20mpg, and force them to buy american cars. It would get several thousand low milage vehicles off the road, save the auto industry, and ensure the job of every auto mechanic and part manufacturing company in the country for the next 10 years (ok, joking on that one).

 

But really, while the worst may not be over yet, we're on the road to recovery, and are still at the point where simple confidence in the system is much more important than any actual data on the matter. The more people panic, the less people spend, the more likely they'll look for any sign of things getting worse. It's a never ending cycle. So, just make due with what you have, try to maintain some sort of life, be thankful for the job you can get, and have faith that things will turn out for the better. And this is coming from someone who is usually rather pessimistic.