Join Empire or Stormcloaks? My Thoughts

[Kraeten]

 

Ulfric, in his speech, mentioned fighting the Thalmor on Skyrim's shores and abroad. Even if you don't trust Ulfric, I don't think that line (in other words, his hatred of the Thalmor backing those words up) by itself is a lie.

It's not so much an issue of trust (and for the record, I do think Ulfric is sincere that he at least PLANS to fight the Thalmor) it's about the weight of evidence. Multiple sources indicate the Empire is preparing for war. Where as there is only a single source which states that Ulfric WILL prepare for war.

 

Because of this, people who claim that the Empire won't fight, but Ulfric Will, are outright denying the evidence in-game.

 

 

Multiple sources indicate the Empire is preparing to repel the Dominion, there are none to my knowledge that demonstrate it is willing to mount any kind of invasion/offensive like Ulfric clearly desires to.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Kraeten

[Lachdonin]

 

Multiple sources indicate the Empire is preparing to repel the Dominion, there are none to my knowledge that demonstrate it is willing to mount any kind of invasion/offensive like Ulfric clearly desires to.

There is nothing asside from some vague statements by Mede really to indicate whether the preperations are for an invasion, or to repell one. Even then, Mede really only refers to a lack of support for another war, and a belief that his death will somehow solve the problem.

 

All we really know is that both the Empire, and the Dominion, view the Civil War as a destraction impeding the Empires preperation for a War Effort.

[MidbossVyers]

 

Ulfric, in his speech, mentioned fighting the Thalmor on Skyrim's shores and abroad. Even if you don't trust Ulfric, I don't think that line (in other words, his hatred of the Thalmor backing those words up) by itself is a lie.

It's not so much an issue of trust (and for the record, I do think Ulfric is sincere that he at least PLANS to fight the Thalmor) it's about the weight of evidence. Multiple sources indicate the Empire is preparing for war. Where as there is only a single source which states that Ulfric WILL prepare for war.

 

Because of this, people who claim that the Empire won't fight, but Ulfric Will, are outright denying the evidence in-game.

 

Well, people who make plans tend to act on those plans, if time permits, so are you saying that the Thalmor will not allow them that time? And that the Stormcloaks cannot buy that time by fighting defensively? I'm assuming, if that's the case, the Thalmor would want to launch a swift invasion before Ulfric can act on those plans. If you were the Thalmor strategist, where would you attack from? Also, I'm not saying that the Empire won't fight. I'm saying that they might not, or at the very least, might not mobilize as swiftly as Empire supporters seem to think. Obviously, I cannot take statistics of the Elder Council, but I'm assuming that men, like Siddgeir and Erikur, do exist on it.

Edited December 3, 2014 by MidbossVyers

[Lachdonin]

Well, people who make plans tend to act on those plans, if time permits, so are you saying that the Thalmor will not allow them that time? And that the Stormcloaks cannot buy that time by fighting defensively? I'm assuming, if that's the case, the Thalmor would want to launch a swift invasion before Ulfric can act on those plans. If you were the Thalmor strategist, where would you attack from?

There are, of course, complicating circumstances. The Jarl of Winterhold only supports Ulfric as a power-play, for instance, and we all know Maven is the real ruler in Riften, and not likely to take kindly to her business in the Empire being interfered with. There is also the ongoing Foresworn Rebellion, regardless of who is in charge in Markarth, and the Reachmen aren't too fond of Ulfric or the Nords for that matter.

 

It would take Ulfric years, I think, to solidify his position enough to mount even simple raids, and that's without counting unknown Dominion interference. We still don't know exactly what they mean by Ulfric being an 'Asset', and while I don't think he actively furthers their agenda, they do seem to have some kind of influence, willing or subtle. In order for him to accomplish anything, he would need to have allies, and I've already explained why I think the Redguard and Dunmer are unlikely to support him.

 

As for where I would attack from... The North. It's historically been their weak side, and is the angle from which the Atmorans first invaded. Since then, Redguard raids and 2 Akaviri invasions have struck from the north, to great effect, and the Dominion still boasts the most powerful Navy on Tamriel. They also control Balferia Island, which would serve as a suitable supply point, and we've seen their presence on Solsthiem, far further afield than Skyrim. We also know most of their northern fortifications are in ruins, further weakening that approach.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the Empire to strike any time soon. I certainly wouldn't if I were in charge. Diplomacy with Hammerfell and Black Marsh would be on the top of my list. I say this as a long time 4X, with all too much experience delaying a War until you can fight it on your terms....

 

As an asside, I personally think that Montierre is one of those Thalmor-Sympathising people on the Council. Or, if not ON the Council, representing someone who is. The Emperor seems to think his death will fix some problems, while Montierre seems more enthralled about business potential than war with the Dominion... Either that,or Meds had his supporters assassinate him so they could blame it on the Domminion and give backing to a War, and Meds just wants you to tie up a loose end.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Lachdonin

[Kraeten]

All we really know is that both the Empire, and the Dominion, view the Civil War as a destraction impeding the Empires preperation for a War Effort.

That's the thing though, is there in fact preparation for a war effort? It isn't difficult to notice that none of the Imperial characters including the Emperor don't express a desire to initiate war with the Dominion. From what we can see the Empire is more concerned with maintaining the status quo than anything else, which is why despite focusing their military efforts along the southern perimeter they nevertheless walk on eggshells when dealing with the Thalmor.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Kraeten

[Lachdonin]

That's the thing though, is there in fact preparation for a war effort? It isn't difficult to notice that none of the Imperial characters including the Emperor don't express a desire to initiate war with the Dominion. From what we can see the Empire is more concerned with maintaining the status quo than anything else, which is why despite focusing their military efforts along the southern perimeter they nevertheless walk on eggshells when dealing with the Thalmor.

That's a bit of a dishonest double standard though. Multiple people referanfe the preperations, and dismissing them as either lying or being missinformed, while taking Ulfric at his word is cherry picking at its worst. Especially when we know Ulfric's word is somewhat dubious.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Lachdonin

[Kraeten]

That's a bit of a dishonest double standard though. Multiple people referanfe the preperations, and dismissing them as either lying or being missinformed, while taking Ulfric at his word is cherry picking at its worst. Especially when we know Ulfric's word is somewhat dubious.

I wouldn't say the preparations are lies, but half truths. I do believe the Empire is willing to fight the Dominion, in so far that they will defend what's left of their lands. Beyond that however, I honestly cannot say there is any evidence to support the argument that the Empire is willing to go as far as Ulfric, that is to mount an invasion. Which is the point I'm stumbling to get at. The empire is a shield, an independent Skyrim is a sword.

[Lachdonin]

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration though, because Ulfric only really has statements to what could he, while the Legion referances what's already going on.

 

Mede, again, talks about the war-wearyness and the unwillingness to renew the fight, but implies that his death will resolve some of that. And the Legates certainly imply a willingness to go on the offensive.

 

I think there's equal indication on both sides of the potential to strike first, rather than just wait for the blow to come to them. It's less about who the sword is, and more about who wields it.

[TeofaTsavo]

Sorry, I find the concept of Ulfric going it alone vs the Dominion pretty laughable.

[MidbossVyers]

 

Well, people who make plans tend to act on those plans, if time permits, so are you saying that the Thalmor will not allow them that time? And that the Stormcloaks cannot buy that time by fighting defensively? I'm assuming, if that's the case, the Thalmor would want to launch a swift invasion before Ulfric can act on those plans. If you were the Thalmor strategist, where would you attack from?

There are, of course, complicating circumstances. The Jarl of Winterhold only supports Ulfric as a power-play, for instance, and we all know Maven is the real ruler in Riften, and not likely to take kindly to her business in the Empire being interfered with. There is also the ongoing Foresworn Rebellion, regardless of who is in charge in Markarth, and the Reachmen aren't too fond of Ulfric or the Nords for that matter.

 

It would take Ulfric years, I think, to solidify his position enough to mount even simple raids, and that's without counting unknown Dominion interference. We still don't know exactly what they mean by Ulfric being an 'Asset', and while I don't think he actively furthers their agenda, they do seem to have some kind of influence, willing or subtle. In order for him to accomplish anything, he would need to have allies, and I've already explained why I think the Redguard and Dunmer are unlikely to support him.

 

As for where I would attack from... The North. It's historically been their weak side, and is the angle from which the Atmorans first invaded. Since then, Redguard raids and 2 Akaviri invasions have struck from the north, to great effect, and the Dominion still boasts the most powerful Navy on Tamriel. They also control Balferia Island, which would serve as a suitable supply point, and we've seen their presence on Solsthiem, far further afield than Skyrim. We also know most of their northern fortifications are in ruins, further weakening that approach.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the Empire to strike any time soon. I certainly wouldn't if I were in charge. Diplomacy with Hammerfell and Black Marsh would be on the top of my list. I say this as a long time 4X, with all too much experience delaying a War until you can fight it on your terms....

 

As an asside, I personally think that Montierre is one of those Thalmor-Sympathising people on the Council. Or, if not ON the Council, representing someone who is. The Emperor seems to think his death will fix some problems, while Montierre seems more enthralled about business potential than war with the Dominion... Either that,or Meds had his supporters assassinate him so they could blame it on the Domminion and give backing to a War, and Meds just wants you to tie up a loose end.

 

In term of a naval assault from the north, assuming that this map is to scale: http://uesp.net/wiki/File:TamrielMap.jpg the Thalmor can either swing around wide from Morrowind or take the shorter sea route from High Rock. I don't think the Dunmer care enough about the Thalmor to allow them to dock on the Morrowind mainland. Based on what you see in the Dragonborn DLC, there is only 1 Thalmor outpost in Solstheim, and by the end of that quest, it is either destroyed completely with all its officers dead or abandoned with its officers retreating in fear. As you said, the Dunmer are pragmatists. If they see that the Stormcloaks can drive out the Empire, even if it's in a rather blunt fashion... No, especially in a rather blunt fashion, they may see the opportunity to get some strong but straightforward allies. Allies that so far only need Morrowind to play defensively and simply ward off any Thalmor who hope to swing by east. Allies that, like them, share a fairly isolationist viewpoint (the fact that the current ruling House, Redoran, is also of a warrior culture may or may not be relevant), in other words, will not want to socially affect them, like the Empire does.

The other invasion point for the Thalmor is west, in which case, they need to dock in either Hammerfell or High Rock. Alliance or not, I doubt Hammerfell will allow that. High Rock by itself also has no love for the Thalmor, and I don't think Cyrodiil wants to trap itself in a pincer attack, Concordat or not, by allowing the Thalmor to take Skyrim, if High Rock is still a part of the Empire. Even if the Empire is bitter about losing Skyrim to the Stormcloaks, I doubt that they want the Thalmor to take it out of sheer spite, unless, of course, they really are kowtowing to the Dominion... Also, what's Balferia Island? I couldn't find a UESP entry about it.

Edited December 3, 2014 by MidbossVyers