North Korea Shells South Korea

[Harbringe]

Sorry this is so long but this subject matter is so important and has so many layers to it that I just didn't know what to leave out

 

Ok first off stop thinking in terms of the cold war as some are prone to do.

 

So first off Russia and this notion that they could use this a an opportunity to roll tanks back into Eastern Europe ,they tried that and it didn't work out so well ,that's not to say they wouldn't like to dislodge the US's influence in Europe but they would much rather accomplish this through political means and the economic means of dangling their vast natural gas reserves in front of European noses and Putin has been working very hard over the last decade to develope those reserves and the infrastructure needed to make that possible ,Russia prefers this approach much more, no one gets killed and they can make money at it .Anyone from Europe has heard this before ,problem is Europeans are not cooperating because they keep building all those wind towers and solar panel grids and whatever other green technology they can implement (take note America).

 

As for Russia per NK ,it was the Russians who were among the first to get on the public bull horn and start telling people how dangerous this was and probably issued the strongest condemnation of NK's action this tells you 2 things 1) they know who is at fault and its not SK (SK fired a few shells away from NK as part of military exercises that have been carried out in this area periodically since the end of the Korean War ,this isn't something new) 2) Russia by their quick and strong condemnation of NK is sending a message to China as in though we (Russia and China) have been working hard on building friendly relations ,we (Russia) are in no way on board with these actions NK has carried out ,lets be perfectly clear on that China.

 

Strangely enough this if it were to go bad could work in Russia's favour as in ,The war starts the nations of NK ,SK, Japan ,China and US are in a shooting war with real possibility it could go nuclear ,Russia immediately disavows themselves of the whole thing saying it is not in their interest to become involved (meanwhile urging restraint and a diplomatic solution).The US looking to bolster their side turns to their allies in NATO at which point the Europeans in NATO look at the stance Russia has taken and asks themselves do we really need to get involved and if they decide no we don't it would cause a huge rift in the NATO alliance ,in fact pretty much destroying it .At that point Russia offers itself up to Europe as a security replacement for the US because if you think about it Europe and Russia combined are equal to the US on many levels ,this is a very real possibility.The only one in Europe that would be a likely hold out would be Great Britain but continental Europeans have gotten used to Great Britain being a hold out and its not like it hasn't happened before ,so if they have to let them sit out on their island so be it. Anyone from Europe knows exactly what I'm talking about.

 

Ok Back to the other side of the world.

 

NK, lets face it they are a failed state and they do what they do because they have to ,its the only lever they have to get the needed necessities of life to prop up their regime and considering they were willing to starve to death 1 - 2 million of their own people to get their nuclear program built ,what they would do to get their own way is any ones guess but they do hold one really big card in their pocket and its not nuclear weapons as scary as they may be.There some time ago NK carried out a few missile launches in which they fired them out and over Japan , demonstrating that they could hit the breadth and width of the entirety of Japan.Now Americans at the time got all alarmist about how NK was trying to build missiles so they could nuke America (you guys always think its all about you) when in reality they were sending the message to both the US and China that they had the means to draw Japan into any conflict and that is extremely problematic in the geo political dynamics of the region.Here's how it goes .NK nukes Japan ,they (Japan) go after NK all out ,landing Japanese troops on the Asian mainland for the first time since WW 2 ,well China has a really really big problem with that ,has to do with all that raping ,murdering and plundering of China by Japan during WW 2 and there is no way in hell that China will stand for it and NK knows it.That's the really big wild card and if it was used only God knows how that could turn out.

 

China ,what's their story ,well their no happier with NK than the rest of us ,recently NK went to China for aid and only got half of what they asked for (message we don't want you to fall ,but we're not happy with you either) prior to that at one time they rushed 300,000 troops to the China NK border to show their displeasure with them ,so why don't they do something about them (HK) once and for all ,well they only have 2 real options 1) Invade NK and take all NK's problems upon themselves and risk NK lobbing a nuke at them ,not a good option 2) Aid in taking down NK with US ,SK and (Japan logistical support only) )and hand it over to SK and let them deal with all the problems ,sounds like the best plan but their not so sure how their own people would look upon it ,as in get ideas about democracy ,something they don't think they could handle at least not right now ,their still working on the whole economic thing.What China would prefer is for NK to stop acting like a madman and just let China grow its economy and wait til China becomes the most powerful economy in the world.All they want is stability and time ,sadly I think China has made a pact with the Devil and they wont be getting what they wish for.

 

South Korea and Japan put these 2 together because though separate nations their actions in the region have one overriding reality at play and in truth is at play all the way from Indo - China to New Zealand and back up to Japan ,basically the whole South East Asia Pacific region.The following is an excerpt from the Asia Pacific Journal that was translated into English by an actual translator (not google).This is so important mistranslations cannot be tolerated.

 

Here is a link to the article itself if you wish to read the whole thing (Highly recommended). Asia Pacific Journal Japan Focus

 

Excerpt: By the time that the United States can no longer be anti-Chinese due to its own financial crisis and collapse of the dollar, and it then abandons Japan and moves away from control of the Far East, Taiwan may have been taken in by China, Korea may move toward North-South conciliation and a pro-China position, and Southeast Asia may have settled under China’s umbrella. As to Japan, after being abandoned by the US while still taking the position of opposing China, I am too heavy-hearted to want to discuss the matter.

 

This consensus that the US is on its way out and China is on the rise is not just being voiced in the Far East Journal ,its being talked about in many circles and nations in the region are starting to take concrete actions in preparation for it.Japans willingness to confront fishing trawlers in the disputed islands is one such example .SK's willingness to hit back in this artillery exchange is one such example and its something new because for the last 50+ years SK has been fairly timid when it came to NK provocations but not this time and the reason is pretty simple ,its better to get these type of things resolved now while the backing of the US is still available rather than wait for the ascendancy of China in the region ,much better to do it now.This applies to all nations in the region from those who make diplomatic overtures ,cultural exchanges ,trade pacts and even those nations who want American bases out of their territory its all aimed at making China their friend.This isn't something that's off in the future its happening now.

 

As for the Korean situation in particular it would be really interesting to know who stopped firing first because if it was the NK then that could be very telling ,its very likely that though SK has a smaller military than the North ,it no doubt is more technologically advanced and if the NK's guns fell silent because the South was literally taking them out ,then this whole massive retaliation from SK should NK do this again is likely not an idle threat ,they just seen America take out a much larger Iraqi army using their technological edge ,they may even be thinking they could win a war with NK using the same technological edge ,trick is they gotta get the nukes ,irregardless with the rise of China they know this has to be resolved and soon.Which is why with their threat of massive retaliation they are telling everyone if NK does this again its game on however it turns out.Wow and all this just in time for 2012 ,what else can go wrong for Obama.

 

Vagrant made the observation that 70% of China's manufactured goods went to export and that's true but not all of that went to America and a decade ago it was about 90% and maybe in a another decade it will be down at 50% or less ,the growth of the Chinese ability to consume their own manufactured goods isn't growing linearly but exponentially ,each year it grows by a little bit more than the year before.So at what point do the Chinese realize that they just don't need America as an export market anymore ,thus they don't need to lend them any more money to keep them afloat.This is what everyone knows ,the day is fast approaching when some bean counter in the Chinese government will hit their magic number and if the US is still massively in debt ,a decision as in no more money US will be made and all over the world stock exchange numbers will start clicking off ,world banking centers will see the numbers on their debit and credit boards changing so fast they wont be able to keep up with it and in an hour it will all be over and tens of millions of Americans will start out that day on their long commute to work and will get there and be told they are out of work because the country has gone bankrupt and you will be madder than hell and if the gun manufacturers and their conservative/tea party twits (you heard me twits) have any say in it ,you will all be standing there fuming with anger ,looking for someone to blame ,with guns strapped to your hips (open carry ,monumentally stupid idea) looking at each other ,woohoo good luck with that one.The only thing that really pisses me off is that I live next door in Canada and I can't figure out how to dig a trench deep enough ,wide enough and fast enough to put as much distance between my country and yours as possible cause should this come to fruition I don't want to be anywhere near you people.

 

Now if there happens to be any of you younger ones who are going to University and there is a Poli-Sci department ,show this to a few Professors and ask them if these are legitimate possible scenario's and oh I suppose I was a bit melodramatic in that last paragraph (will probably happen on your way home from work lol). Seriously though you Americans are likely living in the most pivotal time in your nations history and this trickle down economics with its deregulations and tax cuts for the corporations and rich in your country that these conservative/tea party twits have been pushing for the last 30 years is simply not gonna cut .If I was the Chinese I would hire them (conservative/tea party twits) to keep on doing what their doing cause with every success they have it means more manufacturing in my country and the more money you need to borrow from me the easier it will be to put you down when the time comes.

And your corporations are doing the work for me build it in China ,sell it in America ,pay as little in taxes as possible.Wakey Wakey America the bell tolls for you and its being made in China.

Edited November 26, 2010 by Harbringe

[Zephyr2011]

@chaos Hey! I'm gonna actually say something about SK fring the first shots! aren't you happy?

 

The skirmish began when North Korea warned the South to halt military drills near their sea border, according to South Korean officials. When Seoul refused and began firing artillery into disputed waters — but away from the North Korean shore — the North retaliated by shelling the small island of Yeonpyeong, which houses South Korean military installations and a small civilian population.

 

Note the term: disputed. In other words it's not truelly defined as North Koreas or South Koreas. Therefore SK did not fire upon North Korea first. Additionally no North Korean personel-military or civilian-were nor was there any collateral damage to North Korea. The shells were fired away from North Korea's shoreline. North Korea however fired upon clear and defined South Korean territory causing collateral damage and presumabely injuring mlitary personel and/or civilians, however since we have yet to see information stating this I shall refrain from making this claim.

 

Moving on though, you've said several times that people have said what China should do or what China coud do and thy haven't supplied evidence supporting this then you thanked someone fo pointing out that western trade agreements would dictate their decisions most probably. This was the basis for almost, if not every argument stating that China would either keep their noses clean or help the US.

 

You also said:

All of you are also mistaken if you think China is an ally of the US. China is in it for China only.

 

Then why in the hell would they side with a diabolical dictator who has, in less than a year, managed to piss off almost the entire world??? China stands to gain the most from either staying out (saving chinese lives) or aiding the Western nations (strengthening economic and diplomatic ties with their biggest trading partners).

 

You also stated that North Korea could just launch an artillary shell. Simmilar to that used in the upshot-knothole grable test with "atomic annie." While this is feasible and would decimate most of Seoul let's look at the fact the massive effective range of "atomic annie" was calculated to be 20 miles at best. It was only tested once at a range just shy of 7 miles. Now even with perfect conditions to make the shoto about 20 miles, North Korea would have to cross the border, one of the most heavily defended in the world, into South Korean territory then open fire. You try sneaking an 83 ton cannon with 800 lb shell over one of, if not the most heavily defended borders in the world, on top of all that, you've gotta either follow roads or pathe roades, and they must be 28 ft wide at a bare minimum for several miles depending upon where you cross the border. All this you have to do quietly enough to not get noticed or quickly enough for it to not matter. That's pretty damn difficult if you ask me, there's a reason the US shifted them around all over the place so they couldn't be targeted. Now let's say you're actually crazy enough to attempt his. You attempt to cross/break through the border where you are met with insanely heavy defensesand everybody an their brother is trying to blow your fancy cannon to pieces, and as soon as the yanks and the UN get wind of it, you've got fighter-bombers screeching in to blow it to pieces and your cannon never makes it to within effective range. Not that you could really target it efficiently within 20 miles without scouts...

[Vindekarr]

@chaos Hey! I'm gonna actually say something about SK fring the first shots! aren't you happy?

 

The skirmish began when North Korea warned the South to halt military drills near their sea border, according to South Korean officials. When Seoul refused and began firing artillery into disputed waters — but away from the North Korean shore — the North retaliated by shelling the small island of Yeonpyeong, which houses South Korean military installations and a small civilian population.

 

Note the term: disputed. In other words it's not truelly defined as North Koreas or South Koreas. Therefore SK did not fire upon North Korea first. Additionally no North Korean personel-military or civilian-were nor was there any collateral damage to North Korea. The shells were fired away from North Korea's shoreline. North Korea however fired upon clear and defined South Korean territory causing collateral damage and presumabely injuring mlitary personel and/or civilians, however since we have yet to see information stating this I shall refrain from making this claim.

 

Moving on though, you've said several times that people have said what China should do or what China coud do and thy haven't supplied evidence supporting this then you thanked someone fo pointing out that western trade agreements would dictate their decisions most probably. This was the basis for almost, if not every argument stating that China would either keep their noses clean or help the US.

 

You also said:

All of you are also mistaken if you think China is an ally of the US. China is in it for China only.

 

Then why in the hell would they side with a diabolical dictator who has, in less than a year, managed to piss off almost the entire world??? China stands to gain the most from either staying out (saving chinese lives) or aiding the Western nations (strengthening economic and diplomatic ties with their biggest trading partners).

 

You also stated that North Korea could just launch an artillary shell. Simmilar to that used in the upshot-knothole grable test with "atomic annie." While this is feasible and would decimate most of Seoul let's look at the fact the massive effective range of "atomic annie" was calculated to be 20 miles at best. It was only tested once at a range just shy of 7 miles. Now even with perfect conditions to make the shoto about 20 miles, North Korea would have to cross the border, one of the most heavily defended in the world, into South Korean territory then open fire. You try sneaking an 83 ton cannon with 800 lb shell over one of, if not the most heavily defended borders in the world, on top of all that, you've gotta either follow roads or pathe roades, and they must be 28 ft wide at a bare minimum for several miles depending upon where you cross the border. All this you have to do quietly enough to not get noticed or quickly enough for it to not matter. That's pretty damn difficult if you ask me, there's a reason the US shifted them around all over the place so they couldn't be targeted. Now let's say you're actually crazy enough to attempt his. You attempt to cross/break through the border where you are met with insanely heavy defensesand everybody an their brother is trying to blow your fancy cannon to pieces, and as soon as the yanks and the UN get wind of it, you've got fighter-bombers screeching in to blow it to pieces and your cannon never makes it to within effective range. Not that you could really target it efficiently within 20 miles without scouts...

 

Bravo.

 

Well reasoned, well put, and about darn time somebody who actualy knows anything about atomic cannons stepped up.

 

Though I doubt ChaosBlade was anything less than hateful of your post-considering how agressive and uncivil he is, i doubt he is a very happy fellow.

 

But anyway, who cares? nukes will fall from the sky, everyone is going to have a fight, Korea(one of em) is going to get pulverised, and we're all probably going to die in a perfectly horrible nueclear fireball.

 

YIPPEE!

Edited November 26, 2010 by Vindekarr

[marharth]

Does anyone seriously think China IS NOT a US ally???

 

I mean seriously people, we are a MASSIVE source to their economy...

 

We borrow money from them.

 

We do weapons trade with them.

 

We are clearly a ally, if we were not or just neutral we wouldn't be doing arms trades and borrowing money from them.

Edited November 26, 2010 by marharth

[Vindekarr]

Good point Marharth.

 

The cold war is long over, but sometimes it's hard for people who, in some cases grew up with it, to see past the old, outdated political grudges.

 

Secondly, for a lot of people, China is something of an enigma-it's fairly reclusive since we barely ever get any news out of it.

 

It's a fascinating place, and only going to have a bigger role to play in our western lives, but it's still a place that not a lot of us really knows a lot about.

 

But still, the cold war is very much over.

 

Russia and China are not the "Red Menace" anymore-hell that term doesnt even mean "communists" anymore. They're both increasingly capitalist, both increasingly free, both increasingly becoming what we think of as western democracies.

 

Russia was one of the first out of the blocks not only to criticise this incident, but to call for calm. China hasnt made much comment yet, but even if they did get involved, would probably side with the west due to their significant diplomatic and trade ties.

 

The former eastern bloc is not something to be feared anymore, Russia provides a lot of the west's oil and gas, China is a manufacturing juggernaut and a huge import/export market. They arent monsters-they're really just like us, hell, they ARE the same as us-if somebody else will kindly realise that.

 

To be honest, I really hope this doesnt escalate. But I must admit it could be a chance for major change in NK. A nation deserves freedom to be whatever it chooses to be, bet when it starves its population to create nueclear weapons, deliberately makes it's entire foreing policy "poke us & we'z gunna kill ya!", opresses it's own people can willing and knowingly bombs civilian outposts, then that cannot be allowed.

Edited November 26, 2010 by Vindekarr

[myrmaad]

This discussion has gone back on track nicely.

 

I was planning on handing out a few strikes based on the reported posts I saw, but I'm going to leave it as a warning because I'm so pleased with the civility of the current discussion.

 

If there is any more trouble I will be handing out either strikes or a possible ban. The rest of you can give yourselves a pat on the back. -myrmaad

[marharth]

Also not sure if this was brought up but...

 

Even if China DID side with NK in some rare case of a war.

 

So what? China would have nearly all of its trades cut off, if not all of its trades...

 

Everyone in the UK is without question with the US, Israel is with the US. Every other middle eastern country is pretty much forced to be with the US. Iran might not side with us, but if that happens they will be quickly destroyed anyways.

 

So lets play this out...

 

NK attacks SK again, SK declares war.

 

At this point everyone in the UK and middle east will side with the USA and SK without question, since there is no doubt we are allies.

 

Now lets say China did for some crazy reason side with NK during this war. China now knowingly sided with NK, has all trades cut off from the US, the UK, and the middle east. China also will be forced out of the UN, which is another point I would like to bring up... A person from South Korea is the current leader on the UN... If China does anything they will without question be disbanded from the UN. NK is not in the UN at all. This would probably lead to every country in the UN either becoming neutral or siding with the USA.

 

Now at this point, the only major powers against the entire world are China and the NK. China is being constantly weakened due to not having any trade making it nearly impossible for them to deploy troops.

 

NK after a while is on its own, due to the weakened state of China. NK has a high chance of having nuclear weapons so we would either end up setting up national security missiles in the case of a long range attack (which is unlikely due to the fact NK has only recently been testing, there is little chance they already have a fully working inter-continental nuclear missile. Its also very unlikely they will come anywhere near us without them detecting them. Or we would send the CIA to gather intelligence. Or both.

 

Now a few things could happen. We could do a all out invasion of NK, and just take over the country. We could start with a few attacks and keep going. We could end up nuking them (even though that would be extremely stupid, people would still put it out as a option).

Or we could let them weaken, and collapse themselves.

 

In the end, we are going to win... NK will probably launch everything they have if they know for sure they are going to lose. A lot like when Hitler ordered the destruction of Germany.

If they know they are going to lose, they are still going to win in there minds.

 

Either way, they will have very few weapons that will work. They couldn't of produced to many by now. In a worst case scenario, they will wipe out both Koreans, maybe some part of china, and maybe japan.

 

There is a high chance South Korea and North Korea will go to war sometime, but certainly not in the near future...

 

NK should be smart enough to know if they do anything major they will be completely destroyed.

 

Anyways I think this thing is being blown out of proportion. I mean Israel took over a Turkish ship recently in shared waters, killed a few people, and kidnapped them. That wasn't even on the news that much, and no one was talking about war...

[Surenas]

Go out to wage war (count on nuclear strikes) and find out if there is indeed something new to win or just everything to lose. Don't count on a coalition of the willing auxilliaries in a remake of the Korean War at the edge of a nuclear World War III. Don't even think of it. Edited November 26, 2010 by Surenas

[McclaudEagle]

I don't understand why people keep going on about a possible nuclear war, it's not going to happen. Most of North Korea's possible targets don't possess nuclear weapons, and the ones that do wouldn't likely instigate an all out nuclear war.

[Surenas]

I sense much faith in you. But faith is the worst military advisor ever.

What makes you believe that NK wouldn't use it? Phases of war? On our side, perhaps. But that doesn't mean anything for the other side. War is no game that follows the fixed storyline of a role playing. War is won or lost in the field and not at home in the forefront. And there is no savegame when things go wrong. Count on a nuclear first strike by NK at a time when you expect it least of all. Guess Seoul would be the target to force an ultimate decision by (what they call in good Mao Zedong fashion) the paper tigers. The true question is: do we have a backbone and what is a backbone in such an extraordinary situation.

However, still it is an utmost minor conflict. But not for long for we are already engaged in a mutual escalation by manoeuvres in the dark... unfortunately without any Chinese support or approval, as usual. Already soon Bejing will deem this typically arrogant, as usual. Then and not before we'd have indeed reached stage two of the conflict, the cultural one with us as aliens. The Iraq War would have been paradise compared to the hell to come for those involved.

Edited November 26, 2010 by Surenas