North Korea Shells South Korea

[Harbringe]

This makes the Chinese actions very difficult to comprehend for Westeners with the

consequence that they easily get wrong interpreted ... possibly with fatal results.

Whats hard to comprehend, they've always acted with what serves their own interests. At this moment, their interests are set on increasing presence in the region, establishing financial and political ties with other countries, and in acquiring the resources to keep up internal development. It simply does not serve their long term interests to back NK if things were pushed to a state of war.

 

 

This makes the Chinese actions very difficult to comprehend for Westeners with the

consequence that they easily get wrong interpreted ... possibly with fatal results.

Whats hard to comprehend, they've always acted with what serves their own interests. At this moment, their interests are set on increasing presence in the region, establishing financial and political ties with other countries, and in acquiring the resources to keep up internal development. It simply does not serve their long term interests to back NK if things were pushed to a state of war.

 

You haven't yet understood anything of Chinese communism. Trained in Western What-You-See-Is-What-You-Get philosophy you're trapped, that's all. You take the smiling wombat for a house mouse. Remarkable,

 

I generally do not ascribe to the whole economic argument that others do in regard to China, we in the west look upon capitalism as a way of life ,while they (China) simply view it as a means to an end .The issue for them now is their not at the end and this whole NK affair complicates that goal ,a complication they would prefer to do with out .So right now I would have to say its an overstatement to assume they are going to adhere rigidly to their brand of communist ideology.At least for now.Though as in any situation of this nature the circumstances can change quickly and what was today's vested interest can become tomorrows disinterest and it's NK that holds the match to the fuse.To avoid a general regional war it will take remarkable diplomacy skills on the part of both the US and China should NK decide to light that fuse.

 

Here's something you might consider ,NK didn't develop nuclear weapons just to blackmail and hold the US at bay but also China and them firing those missiles over Japan (a few years ago) was a message to China that they could bring Japan into any conflict.China's stated policy is to never again allow Japanese troops to land back on the Asian mainland (WW II thing).How would it look to the Chinese people if Japan was drawn back onto the mainland by NK and the Chinese government failed to respond in saving their communist ally.It would make them look weak and ineffectual ,that's the fuse NK can light,and its a very dangerous one.

Edited December 2, 2010 by Harbringe

[dazzerfong]

Eh, not everyone's thinking that Communism is bad, it's just different. You don't have to be that defensive, we get it by now. But you do have a point: the media's pretty damn effective these days; most people don't even know the real meaning of Jihad.

[Vagrant0]

However, Vagrant0, your point on the unpreditability of the Chinese is wrong. They're actually quite easy to guess (their motives). Also, remember that the USA and China need each other: China's the biggest purchaser of American Bonds, and America is the single biggest consumer of Chinese goods, in other words, a symbiotic relationship.

I thought that was part of the point I was making in regards to it not being in China's interest to back NK if a war does break out. Afterall, in doing so they risk being drawn into the conflict as being on the same side as NK, which would ruin not only their economic and political interests in neighbors, but would also likely draw them into a war with the west. Even China can no longer condone the behavior of NK and the neglect it shows toward its people. There is simply no benefit for China to be drawn into something like that.

 

I understand quite a bit of Chinese communism, and even understand the Confucian basis to some of its ideals. Even from a philosophic standpoint NK has been something of a disgrace. Under Confucian beliefs, just as a population is to bow to the wills of the ruler, the ruler must also serve the people. This resonates with the communist beliefs of a leader who is one protects the workers... KJI is not this kind of leader. KJI is a man with selfish wants, who has named himself god, who demands absolute obedience from his people, a man who lives in opulence while his people starve, a man who forces others to his own single minded endeavors while turning a blind eye to the problems of the people. This is not a man that any communist would defend. Even Mao showed some concern for the plight of the worker and did what he could to try and bring prosperity to the countryside (it didn't work too well, but atleast this was the intention).

 

What concrete reason would they have to support NK? How could that possibly benefit them? What series of events would make this a GOOD idea?

[dazzerfong]

You're right, Vagrant0; there's no advantage for China to help NK, none whatsoever. NK doesn't have any strategic value that can aid China greatly, so all in all, it's extremely unlikely China would do anything.

[Chaosblade02]

Then why does China continuously vote no on sanctions against North Korea, the only time they voted for them was when they tested nuclear weapons. Why are they against stricter diplomacy with North Korea? Why not impose a full embargo on North Korea, China could guard the border, while the US patrols the seas to keep vessels from getting in.

[dazzerfong]

@ ChaosBorder:

 

Because there's no use destroying an existing alliance. Keeping an alliance via war is much harder than economic sanctions. Just because NK tested nuclear weapons is no jurisdiction to shut down NK. Ironic, considering how MANY countries in the world tested nuclear bombs, and they're only objecting about it now.

 

Also, the core problem with NK is the government and its administration, not the people. Blockading them like you suggested would lead to many people starving.

Edited December 2, 2010 by dazzerfong

[Vindekarr]

Chaos, think about what you're saying here:

 

Thousands, infact, soon literaly millions of NK civvies are already starving to death every year.

 

Now, if you impose an embargo, certainly, you'll basicaly knock NK out of the game once and for all, but you'd also be consigning atleast half the population of NK to starvation.

 

Yes, an embargo would simply end NK as a threat forever, but it would do more colateral damage to NK than a nueclear strike. And Im not exagerating that.

 

Secondly, NK has sworn that "further sanctions will be treated as an act of war" I dont think China wants that, even less than we do. Because when the bombs start dropping, the climate of the region would send the fallout right into a heavily populated rural area in southern China.

 

There are a lot of reasons why China doesnt want sanctions, but in my view, they are mostly trying to avoid both an armed conflict, and annihilating several thousand, if not million civilians through starvation.

 

Because if food stops coming in, and NK cant support it's population to start with, that's going to mean tens of thousands, maybe millions of civilians dead from starvation, and god knows how many more from food rioting and the resulting crackdowns.

[Vagrant0]

You're right, Vagrant0; there's no advantage for China to help NK, none whatsoever. NK doesn't have any strategic value that can aid China greatly, so all in all, it's extremely unlikely China would do anything.

I wouldn't say that, NK has an advantage in being a land route into SK, and comes with installations which are already situated against everywhere but China. The problem of course is that most of these facilities would need serious retrofitting to be viable against modern weapons (cold-war tech on a shoe-string budget kinda limits potential), and despite all the effort China would need to spend in securing and updating these locations, NK would still want to call the shots. It has strategic value, just one can scarcely wonder what sort of half-baked strategy could involve it.

 

Which is, in essence, the crux of the matter. If they defend NK, they start down a chain reaction of events that would likely result in WW3. If they don't defend NK, WW3 is averted until the next major global crisis, or until debt-ridden countries are called to collect.

[Chaosblade02]

Chaos, think about what you're saying here:

 

Thousands, infact, soon literaly millions of NK civvies are already starving to death every year.

 

Now, if you impose an embargo, certainly, you'll basicaly knock NK out of the game once and for all, but you'd also be consigning atleast half the population of NK to starvation.

 

Yes, an embargo would simply end NK as a threat forever, but it would do more colateral damage to NK than a nueclear strike. And Im not exagerating that.

 

Secondly, NK has sworn that "further sanctions will be treated as an act of war" I dont think China wants that, even less than we do. Because when the bombs start dropping, the climate of the region would send the fallout right into a heavily populated rural area in southern China.

 

There are a lot of reasons why China doesnt want sanctions, but in my view, they are mostly trying to avoid both an armed conflict, and annihilating several thousand, if not million civilians through starvation.

 

Because if food stops coming in, and NK cant support it's population to start with, that's going to mean tens of thousands, maybe millions of civilians dead from starvation, and god knows how many more from food rioting and the resulting crackdowns.

 

Ok, so lets sit back and do nothing, and let the civilians starve under a tyrant. And keep giving them food so they can feed their armies and let the civilians starve anyway, and continue to tolerate them threatening attacking and blackmailing the world for favors. And also the concentration camps they throw any civilian in who questions the intentions of the "great leader".

Edited December 2, 2010 by Chaosblade02

[dazzerfong]

Well, we could always assassinate the administration, but then again, what would we do after that?

 

Chaosblade02, life doesn't work in the way that you can make decisions that can affect that many in such a temperamental manner.

 

Also, about strategic value: I take back my point about it being useless; if the South took over NK, they could keep a watchful eye on China. If it was the other way around ,however, the use would be limited (think about it; most countries with nuclear power can usually fire a missile across the world several times).

 

All in all, it'll benefit China much more on the long term if they didn't get involved.

Edited December 2, 2010 by dazzerfong