The situation in Egypt

[grannywils]

I am very hesitant to even get into this thread, so please take anything I say here with a grain of salt and as conjecture on my part only.

 

However, I did spend many years in the oil business back in the lates 70's and 80's. During those years we traded with Libya quite extensively as well as many other countries. Our company traveled to Libya to do business with Mr. Gaddafi and his government. It was "conjectured" by many in our business even then that Mr. Gadaffi was "mad as a hatter" and likely to be the next really dangerous threat in the middle east. The fact that Libya quieted down to the extent that it did was always as surprise to me.

 

The fact that it has reared it's head again is no surprise to me. Here is my "conjecture". If Mr. Gaddafi's leadership is being threatened, it would come as no surprise to me if the rebels in question were being supported by "someone" who has an interest in the extremely popular oil that is under the Libyan ground. I will not go so far as to say who that someone might be, although I certainly have some ideas of my own, but absolutely no proof to back it up. Not my thing to throw out empty accusations. So I will not.

 

I do not know enough at this point about what is happening over there and who is taking what stance, but I sincerely hope, as do we all, that innocent people are not once again going to be thrown in front of the tanks, so to speak. But I would not be at all surprised if once all the dust has settled the Libyan oil is going to those with the biggest wallets perceived need for it and willingess to support these "rebels".

[JimboUK]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1361629/Libya-protests-David-Cameron-plans-fly-zone-threatens-send-British-troops.html

 

Here we go again, what is happening in Libya is terrible but do we really need to get involved in yet another conflict? Anyway after the recent defence cuts the UK doesn't have much left to send.

As much as I admire the RAF only the Typhoon's will be of any use and since you have recently decided to scrap the last of your carriers that makes the use of Harriers doubtful, a No Fly Zone will be problematic at best unless there is a French contingent as well. It is unlikely that America will do anything besides freeze assets and make speeches deploring the excesses of the Libyan government. It would surprise me in the extreme if Obama had the intestinal fortitude to initiate another possible conflict no matter how many Libyan civilians are at risk. Though Secretary of State Clinton does posit the question, lol..the only member of the government with any "cojones" is a woman.

 

There is an RAF base well within range of Libya but you're right about the carriers, this crisis has proven how idiotic the decision to scrap the current carriers before their replacements are ready was.

[Aurielius]

@Jim UK

The distance between Malta ( the closest base) and just Tripoli is 221 miles, the combat range of a Harrier is 300 miles that leaves about 20 minutes of CAP more or less. It will require in flight refueling (and drop tanks) at a minimum to be of any use in the interior of Libya. So that leaves Typhoons as the only operational air superiority fighter that can be proof against what the Libyans can put into the air. However the USS Kearsage and the USS Pike has been ordered into the area, that along with existing assets may be able to give the logistical support to make a No Fly Zone feasible.

[SpellAndShield]

I am very hesitant to even get into this thread, so please take anything I say here with a grain of salt and as conjecture on my part only.

 

However, I did spend many years in the oil business back in the lates 70's and 80's. During those years we traded with Libya quite extensively as well as many other countries. Our company traveled to Libya to do business with Mr. Gaddafi and his government. It was "conjectured" by many in our business even then that Mr. Gadaffi was "mad as a hatter" and likely to be the next really dangerous threat in the middle east. The fact that Libya quieted down to the extent that it did was always as surprise to me.

 

The fact that it has reared it's head again is no surprise to me. Here is my "conjecture". If Mr. Gaddafi's leadership is being threatened, it would come as no surprise to me if the rebels in question were being supported by "someone" who has an interest in the extremely popular oil that is under the Libyan ground. I will not go so far as to say who that someone might be, although I certainly have some ideas of my own, but absolutely no proof to back it up. Not my thing to throw out empty accusations. So I will not.

 

I do not know enough at this point about what is happening over there and who is taking what stance, but I sincerely hope, as do we all, that innocent people are not once again going to be thrown in front of the tanks, so to speak. But I would not be at all surprised if once all the dust has settled the Libyan oil is going to those with the biggest wallets perceived need for it and willingess to support these "rebels".

 

I am sure we would love to set up military bases in Libya and attempt to take control of the oil; we could use the excuse of 'helping' the rebels or trying to keep the peace. :whistling:

[IndorilTheGreat]

I am sure we would love to set up military bases in Libya and attempt to take control of the oil; we could use the excuse of 'helping' the rebels or trying to keep the peace. :whistling:

 

Hmm.... that sounds awfully familiar... :rolleyes:

 

Hopefully it will not come to that.

[SpellAndShield]

I am sure we would love to set up military bases in Libya and attempt to take control of the oil; we could use the excuse of 'helping' the rebels or trying to keep the peace. :whistling:

 

Hmm.... that sounds awfully familiar... :rolleyes:

 

Hopefully it will not come to that.

 

It wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[HappyHerring]

I am sure we would love to set up military bases in Libya and attempt to take control of the oil; we could use the excuse of 'helping' the rebels or trying to keep the peace. :whistling:

 

Hmm.... that sounds awfully familiar... :rolleyes:

 

Hopefully it will not come to that.

 

It wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Hey people, let's not be patronising here. We should also remember China and the need they have for resources and the much 'celebrated' non-judgmental attitude to african nations who perhaps do not display the commitment to civil and human rights which we paternalistic neocolonialist westerners hold. ;)

[JimboUK]

I wonder if using a cruise missile is an option? We know what area he's in, surely it can't be that hard to find a likely building where he or his goons are hiding? Even if they miss they're likely to frighten the life out of those around him.

 

@Jim UK

The distance between Malta ( the closest base) and just Tripoli is 221 miles, the combat range of a Harrier is 300 miles that leaves about 20 minutes of CAP more or less. It will require in flight refueling (and drop tanks) at a minimum to be of any use in the interior of Libya. So that leaves Typhoons as the only operational air superiority fighter that can be proof against what the Libyans can put into the air. However the USS Kearsage and the USS Pike has been ordered into the area, that along with existing assets may be able to give the logistical support to make a No Fly Zone feasible.

 

Typhoons from RAF Akrotiri are what they're planning on using, the Harrier is no good, that's being taken out of service anyway. Honestly if this doesn't convince the government to rethink the defence cuts then nothing will, this is small incident quite close to home and we're struggling, what happens if something bigger happens further away? There is a lot of oil around the Falklands, I'm worried if push comes to shove we wouldn't be able to defend them in the future.

[HappyHerring]

I wonder if using a cruise missile is an option? We know what area he's in, surely it can't be that hard to find a likely building where he or his goons are hiding? Even if they miss they're likely to frighten the life out of those around him.

 

@Jim UK

The distance between Malta ( the closest base) and just Tripoli is 221 miles, the combat range of a Harrier is 300 miles that leaves about 20 minutes of CAP more or less. It will require in flight refueling (and drop tanks) at a minimum to be of any use in the interior of Libya. So that leaves Typhoons as the only operational air superiority fighter that can be proof against what the Libyans can put into the air. However the USS Kearsage and the USS Pike has been ordered into the area, that along with existing assets may be able to give the logistical support to make a No Fly Zone feasible.

 

Typhoons from RAF Akrotiri are what they're planning on using, the Harrier is no good, that's being taken out of service anyway. Honestly if this doesn't convince the government to rethink the defence cuts then nothing will, this is small incident quite close to home and we're struggling, what happens if something bigger happens further away? There is a lot of oil around the Falklands, I'm worried if push comes to shove we wouldn't be able to defend them in the future.

Imagine the anger which would supperate over the next few decades if western imperialists were to take out an arab leader. Let us remember that a client of the U.S. such as the president of Yemen can blame the American and Israeli governments for dissension in his state. We in the west need to allow this to work out in it's own terms. The pride which could come to a democratic country in the region would promote civic society and good governance far better than a cruise missile.

[JimboUK]

I wonder if using a cruise missile is an option? We know what area he's in, surely it can't be that hard to find a likely building where he or his goons are hiding? Even if they miss they're likely to frighten the life out of those around him.

 

@Jim UK

The distance between Malta ( the closest base) and just Tripoli is 221 miles, the combat range of a Harrier is 300 miles that leaves about 20 minutes of CAP more or less. It will require in flight refueling (and drop tanks) at a minimum to be of any use in the interior of Libya. So that leaves Typhoons as the only operational air superiority fighter that can be proof against what the Libyans can put into the air. However the USS Kearsage and the USS Pike has been ordered into the area, that along with existing assets may be able to give the logistical support to make a No Fly Zone feasible.

 

Typhoons from RAF Akrotiri are what they're planning on using, the Harrier is no good, that's being taken out of service anyway. Honestly if this doesn't convince the government to rethink the defence cuts then nothing will, this is small incident quite close to home and we're struggling, what happens if something bigger happens further away? There is a lot of oil around the Falklands, I'm worried if push comes to shove we wouldn't be able to defend them in the future.

Imagine the anger which would supperate over the next few decades if western imperialists were to take out an arab leader. Let us remember that a client of the U.S. such as the president of Yemen can blame the American and Israeli governments for dissension in his state. We in the west need to allow this to work out in it's own terms. The pride which could come to a democratic country in the region would promote civic society and good governance far better than a cruise missile.

 

That depends on the leader, no one will cry over the loss of Gaddafi. I agree we should stay out of it, sadly it looks like we're not going to. I'm just thinking of the best to option to reduce the risk of losses to our people. The no fly zone may not make a lot of difference on the ground, arming the rebels may be storing up trouble in a country as tribal as Libya and putting boots on the ground is surely unthinkable?