International Relations Omnibus

[sukeban]

Salutations Nexus Denizens.

 

The title says it all. I figure that one larger thread is better than a separate thread for each potential issue, but do correct me if this assumption is incorrect.

 

Potential discussion subjects:

 

A. Rise of China as world power

B. Iran-Israel-US-Europe

C. Greek sovereign debt/future of EU

D. Syria/Arab Spring

E. Whatever interesting items are in your local paper

 

Thanks for reading/commenting!

Edited February 23, 2012 by sukeban

[Balagor]

I am busy now. but will perhaps write more later,

 

A: has allready happend

B: will continue for ever more (perhaps not with Iranian participation)

C: say hello to the dracma soon

D: let´s hope that spring becomes summer

E: in my country we are more concerned about the latest "fat tax"

[Marxist ßastard]

1. Remember when it was Japan that was going to take over?
2. What of it? Iran doesn't have nukes and can't develop them for at least 5 years. Sending ground troops would be political suicide, so maybe we send over some UAVs. Big international incident, Strait of Hormuz gets mined some more.
3. lol you are so screwed
4. The revolutions are over. What's happening in Syria is a humanitarian crisis.
5. We think Rick Santorum is playing 11-dimensional chess. Yeah, Santorum. The sweater-vest guy.

[sukeban]

I'll pick two:

 

A: Yes, China has already risen quite far, but there is still much more to accomplish. Or is there? There's talk of a real estate/infrastructure bubble in China that could apparently dwarf the magnitude of the American mortgage calamity if it were to burst. OTOH, if this does not happen, what do will China do with their economic clout? Invest in their military? Dominate the Pacific/East/Southeast Asia? Implode from within because their environment in many areas literally resembles the surface of the moon and because walking in downtown Beijing is like sucking on a penny due to all the pollutants in the air?

 

B: Iran might not have such a capability and said five-year horizon might be entirely accurate, but I don't necessarily know if Israel is willing to wait five years in order to find out. Not that I think Iran really is an "existential threat" to Israel, despite that jive that their vile prez is always spewing. Personally, I believe Iran desires nuclear weapons for their deterrent value, same as any other nation. They fear Iraq-style "regime change" imposed upon them from abroad. As such, they are very rational. IMO, it is undesirable to have an unstable state in possession of such devastating armaments, but the same can be said for Pakistan and North Korea as well. I think the likelihood of an Israeli strike against Iran is actually rather high. They may even employ paratroopers or some such, as I don't think that rounding up a cadre of soldiers willing to die for their country on a likely suicidal mission is particularly far-fetched. Israel takes this sort of thing seriously, and they have been willing to ignore global opinion in the pursuit of security many times in the past. This, though, would be their most audacious move to-date. As such, I find it rather interesting.

 

E: Lol at Santorum

[grannywils]

Sukeban, I applaud you for being relatively new and starting a fresh topic. Personally I think it may be a bit too large in scope for one thread, but perhaps not.

 

A. The rise of China as a world power has been coming for at least 25 years. It is no big surprise, and we all should have been prepared for it long ago. In my opinion we need to be mindful of the history of that Nation.

 

B. The situation in the middle east has been and ever will be, in my opinion, the most volitile in the world. Unless and until someone in that area can come up with a way to enable the inhabitants to come to a mutual trust and understanding of one another, very little will change in that region. In my opinion, the US and Europe have very little to do with it.

 

C. I see Greece as just the tip of the iceburg insofar as the likely collapse of the world's economy unless and until all of our leader's begin to face reality and take a close look in the mirror and acknowledge some of the real causes of the financial crises around the globe.

 

D. To some extent, read "B", above.

 

E. If we do not begin to pay attention to the fact that people need real jobs and real healthcare, all the politicians from both sides of the aisle may find themselves out of work fairly soon.

[HeyYou]

China is already investing in their military, working on ways to defeat the american projection of power in asia. What's really amusing about it all, is they are doing so with money FROM THE USA. Yep, that's right, America is providing her 'enemies' with financing for them to develop weapons to defeat us. Not that they will even need to. They already have us beat, without firing a single shot. They did it by drawing off the american economy, to bolster theirs. Worked great. Say : Thank You Richard.

 

Israel/America are just looking for an excuse to bomb Iran. Expect it to happen, probably this year.

 

The EU should just let Greece go into default, and be done with it. It's inevitable anyway. They can only prop them up for so long with loans they can't afford, to pay off debts they can't afford. Where's the logic in that??

[Lisnpuppy]

1) China has been rising as a world power for a long time. Though not many of us are old enough to remember, I remember my history that one of the reasons MacArthur got sacked by Truman was his desire to go into China and take out what he rightly foresaw as a massive future threat. However as their economy is built on the backs of what THEY see as their most expendable resource--their people....will it last? Are they spreading themselves to far, to fast? Stay tuned and find out.

 

2) I may get in some hot water for saying this but the Middle East is a quagmire that is largely a result of the Allies after the Second World War. The guilt associated with what happened combined with the West desire to have a friendly nation in the Middle East led to the issues happening today. Until the West is willing to deal with both the Palestinians and Israel on equal footing then there is little hope of anything good coming out of that area. During all the Super Bowl ads and stories buried several pages back in the news stories was one about our Secretary of Defense saying that Israel would probably do something about Iran this year and that we would be drug into it in some capacity. I guess most people missed that story watching the cute dog commercials.

 

3) Greece is just one of many economies, small now but a domino effect is sure to follow. The problem with the austerity is that the powers that be continue to be corrupt and are asking their people to make these measures but continue NOT to do so themselves. Also the economic questions are so serious and complicated that the average person can not understand what is going on, they just know that their life is getting harder. We can discuss the former Greek economy some other time but by in large this is the issue and most of Europe is in the same boats, of more or less a rickety nature.

 

4) The Arab Spring is some ways was a wonderful thing as people were speaking their own minds and attempting to make their own rule, however sometimes what the West sees as a good thing turns out not to be for them politically...especially when the people of those Nations pick ruling parties that are not what the West wants. You place your bets you takes your chances, hmmm? As for Syria...I agree with Marxist B (wow my fingers almost dropped of on that--I jest I do!) but it is a humanitarian crisis now and it is shameful that we stand by and watch this happen. Do I want the U.S into something else, hellz no! Its the fact of what we choose to intercede and not that makes me sick sometimes....even if I understand the politics of it all. Sometimes politics sucks.

 

5) My local paper's most interesting story is how the US Supreme Court just gave ours the smackdown on making legislation on the right to present lawsuits against nursing homes instead of having to go to arbitration. They high court said that ours misinterpreted their rulings and is making the WV Supreme Court go back and reassess their rulings. There are so many issues in this one that I haven't yet sorted it all out.

 

That is all.

[WizardOfAtlantis]

A. Their bubble is going to burst as their yuan is falsely evaluated, iirc. Who knows when. China's a big place with a lot of people that they can silence and kill off as they see fit and hardly dent their numbers. They could take a right hook the size of Denmark and hardly stumble, numbers-wise.

B. Since the US is very often in the pocket of the Israelies, for various reasons and to varying levels that are difficult to get into without being called a Conspiracy Theorist or Anti-Semitic (that's a hefty spell, I tells ya), I can't imagine/find it hard to imagine that the Jews/Israelis are going to sit around and let Iran grow and grow. Sometime, I would think that Iran is going to have to put a wrong foot, or a wrong foot is going to be put for them, and the Grand Charade will go on. As I understand the world theater, it would have to, unless something big changes. I mean, why would you overthrow a government and install a religious fanatic if you didn't want to invade it in the future to begin with?

C. Very curious about Greece since I live in Italy, where the situation is much the same...only here the Black Magicians and Mafia are much better at BS-ing, stealing, and making it look like things are better than their Greek counterparts.

D. MB is right, but I would add this: Syria's old news, and by that I mean that it's business as usual in that place. Syria has a veneer of civilization on it. That's all, so what's happening there, and how little we do about it and hear about it (since we're the ones who put on that veneer, for whatever reasons), shouldn't come as a surprise.

E. I don't follow local news. Over 90 percent of Italy's media is owned by a man/ex-Prime Minister who's been guilty of being associated with the mafia for the last forty years.

[sukeban]

@Lins

 

1. I remember reading about that. Strange to contemplate the hypothetical situations of that era, like if Patton had been granted his wish to invade Russia after Germany collapsed. Except that MacArthur wanted to use nuclear weapons, correct? Or at least fly about a zillion sorties. I'm not so sure that we'd have a better situation had we done that. I'd say your second point is more likely, that the CCP collapses under its own weight in the not-so-distant future. What replaces that... I can't say.

 

2. 200% agreed. Whenever I look at a map of the middle east, my eyes start to bleed what for the perfectly straight lines following absolutely no ethnic, sectarian, or historical logic. Looking at Iraq and Kuwait and then realizing the only reason that they are not one country is because the British wanted to gimp Iraq by denying them a coastline longer than twenty miles is positively maddening. And then to know that we went to war for it, twice.

 

@Wizard

 

B. Definitely no peace until the Palestinian issue is resolved. The double-standard that is applied here is absolutely appalling, and definitely invites questions of undue AIPAC/Israeli influence within our government. I facepalm during Republican debates when they fall all over themselves trying to prove who is the better friend to Israel/tougher on Arabs/Iran. Makes me wonder whose presidency they are truly running for.

 

C. Interested more in your perspective on Greece. Do you think they still belong in the EU? Do you think it was a mistake to allow some of these peripheral nations (Greece, Portugal, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) in?

 

E. Is it true that mafia is the largest creditor in Italy? I believe I read that somewhere. Mr. Berlusconi makes for amusing reading, if nothing else.

Edited February 23, 2012 by sukeban

[dazzerfong]

1. Quite a lot of country's bonds are bought by China: it's sort of a stranglehold now.

2. No comment: don't really know about it.

3. We all know Europe's going to suffer quite a bit, we just don't know how much.

4. Libya situation re-run, except with a lack of air support from Europe's countries.