Iran

[Aurielius]

Just deleted a well written response to Nintii and its all coming up gobblygook , no paragraphs , no structure , so I deleted the entire thing . Anyone know why this has started happening to me

It's the work of either SAVAMA or MOSSAD?

[Harbringe]

Just deleted a well written response to Nintii and its all coming up gobblygook , no paragraphs , no structure , so I deleted the entire thing . Anyone know why this has started happening to me

It's the work of either SAVAMA or MOSSAD?

 

Gremlins their all gremlins

[Harbringe]

@ Harbinge ... THE OIL ANGLE ... Well, that's interesting to note that North America would survive any petroleum problems should there be any problems with oil coming from the Middle East ... as you say.

South Africa is in a unique position in that it has the technology to convert coal into petroleum ... this technique was invented here

and here's a quote from Sasol's website ...

 

"At its giant synfuels complex at Secunda in South Africa,Sasol converts more than 40-million metric tons of coal a year into

liquid fuels, industrial pipeline gas and a range of chemical feedstock, including the building blocks for industrial solvents and

polymers. The Secunda site comprises two giant factories with a combined capacity equivalent to about 150,000 barrels a day".

 

end quote.

 

I've been past their complex at Secunda a number of times ... you'd swear you were in the Middle East with all those pipes

thingies sticking into the air - whatever you call them - with the flames ... yeah, you get the picture.

 

BUT, that will not be a problem ... Iran will not be able to stop the flow of oil ... as a matter of fact I think the US or the UN is trying

to enforce a blockade on Iranian oil ... this would in fact according to the article I've read, drive the price of oil from Iran down.

 

Another quote

 

In the U.S., the Defense Department is studying coal-to-oil technology as a way to reduce the American military's dependence on

Middle Eastern crude oil. And the National Coal Council, an industry association, is pushing for government incentives to help

generate some 2.6 million barrels of liquid fuel a day from coal by 2025. That would satisfy some 10 percent of America's

expected oil demand that year. The plan would require 475 million tons of coal a year, which represents more than 40 percent

of current annual U.S. production. Industry officials believe America's coal reserves are big enough to allow for the extra

production.

 

end quote ... Pittsburg Post Gazette.

Here's a link to the Iranian Oil Sanctions .... Oil Sanctions ... BBC News

 

Okay gonna give this another try , better not go all gobbleygook on me.

 

The oil - food equation is pretty simple , its just an energy equation .Literally the energy put in can be converted into equivalent foodstuffs that can be measured in caloric values . Since the discovery of oil , population growth and oil capacity growth have literally gone hand in hand .Any drop in the current oil production capacity will result in a near equivalent food production capacity drop. Now there was a part of your post I removed but in that you said the loss of Iran's oil production would tough but survivable , yes that would be true if we were only talking about a sanction regime against Iran , but we're not , we are talking about Israel attacking Iran and the US getting drawn into it . The Iranians will most certainly be hitting every oil facility of any kind . So we're talking about Iran , Iraq , Kuwait , Saudi Arabia , Bahrain , UAE , Qatar and maybe even Oman (somewhat friendly to Iran not sure) all seeing their oil production capacity being severely damaged or even destroyed. Those countries represent about 30% of the worlds total production. S.Africa gets 82.2 % of its oil from the M.E with Iran and Saudi Arabia being the vast majority of that. Link

 

So being as you mentioned S Africa and its coal conversion technology lets take a closer look at S. Africa's energy situation. This Link sums up your energy situation . S.Africa imports 348.86 barrels of oil per day , 107 billion cu ft of natural gas per year and exports 74,596 short tons of coal . Now here's a link to a chart showing the calorific (not same as caloric) value of different fuels. Petroleum (Oil) is 43000 kj/kg , Natural Gas is 43000 kj/m3 (involves a greater volume to achieve same value) , Coal is 15000 - 27000 kj/kg (depends on grade of coal) ,a good sense of comparison to these is wood at 14400 - 17400 . Surprising isn't it wood is only slightly worse than coal. Anyway using the US Army's projection of coal to liquid fuel conversion which is 13 yrs to achieve a 10% replacement of oil imports , how long would it take for S. Africa to replace potentially 82.2 % of its oil imports using the same coal to liquid fuel conversion technology. That's a problem because in the event of a M. E. war S Africa if its to keep its food production up wouldn't need it in 13 yrs , it would need it now.This is the oil trap that we have built for ourselves.Because the capacity to replace a sudden drop in oil supplies does not exist for most nations on this planet and even for those who it does it will take time to replace and the food shortage will last until that drop is replaced by other means.To give people an idea of what it takes to make such replacements , the Canadian Tar Sands took 30+ years of infrastructural development to get it up to its current capacity , all those Saudi refineries and other facilities represent 70+ years of development , certainly its going to take some time to replace that. So when it comes to food the trick will be to get from the point in which the oil supply suddenly drops to the time in which means are developed to replace it and the question people need to consider would I be able to get or do I have enough food stored to supplement my food needs or survive on.for an extended period of time or am I like about half of the American population that has less than 2 weeks of food in my cupboard or worse yet the many of this world who each and every day must go out each day for their daily bread.

 

Now just apply the above to Nations like India and China with their combined 2.4 billion + and try to tell me a major disruption in oil supplies isn't a big problem , in fact most likely this would just cause them to go to war also , again another ramification of going to war with Iran.

 

So to tie this back in with Israel , Iran , Palestinian issue. Israel says Iran is an existential threat and is hostile towards them , Iran say Israel is an imperialist Zionist who is stealing anothers land . Now here is something most in the Western world do not know because our Governments and media don't tell us . Iran has said and reconfirmed many times that if a fair and just settlement was offered to the Palestinians and they accepted it , then this hostility of Iran toward Israel would end , it would just stop because there simply would be no reason for it. So is it war or is it peace we will choose.

 

I'm betting it will be war and the most likely time for it will be during or after the 2012 London Olympics and about up to 1 month before the US Presidential election , in the election thread I had said I thought it 50/50 the US would be going to war with Iran but now I think it much higher . Reason being the neo - con war hawks that are pushing for the war and those in Israel know that they will not have the same amount of political leverage they have this year , next year , because this year is a Presidential election year and that kind of leverage will not come around again until 2016 and you have to ask yourself are these people willing to wait that long . I think not. About a month ago Netanyahu when asked when Israel would launch an attack , said it won't be in weeks but its not in years .

Edited April 6, 2012 by Harbringe

[HeyYou]

It had been projected that it would be ten years to snuff all the fires after the first Iraq war...... it happened MUCH quicker than that... So, I am not sure that 'replacement for oil' would be as much of an issue as 'getting production going again." It would be an uncomfortable period of time without a doubt.

 

Israel and the Palestinians are NEVER going to come to terms, so to speak, as it is in Israels' best interest for there NOT to be a Palestinian state...... that would complicate their land grabbing.

[modder3434]

even if Iran did make a nuclear missile, " and then 500 Iranians would throw it at us" - Lewis Black.

 

as for what Heyou said Israel and Palestine aren't going to be at peace. as for who I'm for, let the best nation win. to the victor goes the spoils.

 

Anyway if you want to look at major causes of conflict in the middle east today look at what the alled powers did to the middle east after ww1, man;y disolving the ottoman empire which was "containing the devils" and divided up lands based on promises ( some of which they didn't keep) and for thier own personal gains.

[SilverDNA]

I only want to Inform the Audience of this debate that you might be aware of what happens in my country as a major scale debate right now . I'm not taking sides in this and keep my option to my self but I like to inform you about theses news articles witch have much to do with this topic.

 

Gunther Grass pens poem against Israel, says it is seeking to destroy Iran Daily News

 

Günter Grass launches poetry attack on Israel The Guardian U.K.

 

Israel Bars German Laureate Grass Over Poem The New York Times

 

Edit:

Add Link to RT Youtube Video

 

Edited April 10, 2012 by SilverDNA

[HeyYou]

Yep, Israel plays the anti-semitic card pretty freely and loosely. Say something against Israel, and you are automagically a Jew-hater......

 

Really, in my opinion, Israel is more a danger to Israel, than Iran is........