Pumpernickels Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I'm on my second playthrough, haven't decided on any mods yet. I'm noticing some pretty extreme accuracy now. I had a team of all Colonels miss 26 out of 30 shots. 3 of them were 95% chance of hit and missed all 3 in a row. They seem to be missing at an incredible rate. What bothers me is that is not reflected in the percentages shown. There's no way I can hit the 5% chance of miss so many times in a row on so many missions with so many soldiers. What's with the number generation? Has anybody done any tweaking with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaerar Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Is this on Impossible or classic? As there are negative to hit modifiers in place with those difficulty levels on stock setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daemonjax Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 (edited) 3 of them were 95% chance of hit and missed all 3 in a row. The RNG seems like it might be a bit on the streaky side, but over time it will average out for you (maybe a few hundred shots). Edited October 21, 2012 by Daemonjax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dreadylein Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 sure, mhmh, but random means cluster, if there are no clusters, it wont be random ? :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaxEmpyrean Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The odds of missing three 95% chance shots in a row is one in eight thousand. It's possible that you're just unlucky, but if that happened to me I'd start collecting data to see if it's just observation bias or if the displayed values and the RNG really are out of sync. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaerar Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Again if it's not a Normal game and is Classic or Impossible a 95% chance can easily get reduced to 75% despite displayed amount... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpernickels Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's on Normal. I played twice so far on normal. First game, once my top say ~8 team members were fully leveled they didn't miss very often. This second playthrough though. I want to murder these idiots. Over weight west Virginia army guardsmen move and shoot better than these sorry sacks. I have a sniper who averages about 25% hit ratio. Who decided sniper was a good specialty for this man? Not me. I wish there were some way to modify those values so that the numbers aren't just arbitrary. I should never have seen 3 misses in a row at 95%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daemonjax Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 (edited) Sample Size.............: 3 Number of Hits..........: 0 Expected Hit Percentage.: 95.0% Actual Hit Percentage...: 0.0% Running simulation of 1000000 passes on sample data. Please wait... Simulated Hit Percentage: 95.01083% # of Passes that were <= to your Number of Hits: 119 (0.011899999%) So, if all you did was sit there and take 3 95% shots, one million times... then only 119 of those times would you miss 3 times in a row. The simulation was done using SHA-1 as the PRNG. Are YOU that unlucky. Maybe. :P First game, once my top say ~8 team members were fully leveled they didn't miss very often. Maybe you shoulda quit while you were ahead? haha... now your luck is going to have to suck for a while to even out! Edited October 22, 2012 by Daemonjax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garthor Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 If you never see 3 misses in a row at 95%, that means that after you've missed 2 95% shots in a row, your next 95% shot will be a guaranteed hit. If you can absolutely guarantee that hit, then it's not random, is it? Anyway, while the numbers do not correspond to the ACTUAL hit rate on Normal (you are given hidden significant bonuses to hit if you've missed previous 50%+ shots, and you are down to 4 soldiers), they certainly aren't any worse than what is displayed. You are just that unlucky, or you are reloading saves (which will result in the same outcome). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpernickels Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Really, reloading saves causes accuracy penalties? Is that just in that particular map or do those penalties carry over for the rest of your playthrough? Where are you getting this information from? I definitely reload saves from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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