How dangerous is North Korea now?

[TRoaches]

Your fear of China is childish. They do not view the west as devils, and they are not interested in preventing western presence in China. If that were the case this list would be much shorter:

 

http://www.jiesworld.com/international_corporations_in_china.htm

 

That looks like a fairly strong foothold to me. I'm sure you can dig up some hawk-ish quotes from Chinese generals or politicians that support the notion that they hate the west, but a few hawks exist in the margins of every government. Their opinions matter very little compared to the influence represented by the above list. Imagine the economic fallout they would experience if those factories were shuttered. I think it would be more likely that China, with the support of US, will one day invade the North themselves and annex it for the sake of stability.

[Vagrant0]

That looks like a fairly strong foothold to me. I'm sure you can dig up some hawk-ish quotes from Chinese generals or politicians that support the notion that they hate the west, but a few hawks exist in the margins of every government. Their opinions matter very little compared to the influence represented by the above list. Imagine the economic fallout they would experience if those factories were shuttered. I think it would be more likely that China, with the support of US, will one day invade the North themselves and annex it for the sake of stability.

 

The question of course is... Would anyone actually be terribly bothered if that did happen, or if SK just got sick of being a target and did it themselves with the help of China? Sure, the UN has some regulations about invasions and wars between countries, but would there really be anyone other than some rogue states or terrorist groups who would raise any objection to NK just being overrun and forced under a new Korean regime?

[TRoaches]

NK does not trade with anyone, so they have no real friends in the world that would be willing to do anything beyond publicly condemn aggression against them. The UN doesn't really have the power regulate wars. The security council is the only UN organ that can actually send troops anywhere, and it exists in a state of permanent stalemate by design.

I think the only group that would object in a forceful way would be the NK people, and that China would have the best chance of occupying NK with the least amount of civilian revolt and bloodshed. Sending US or SK troops into NK would likely cause battles with half starved, untrained, ill-equipped, and severely indoctrinated civilians. It would be devastating for everyone involved. The civilians-turned-insurgents would be massacred, and the troops on the winning side would be traumatized from the experience even more than soldiers usually are from war. They would be forced to fight people who are not traditional soldiers, like children and the elderly. The people there seem to be very serious about fighting to the death if it comes to that. I can't imagine even the most hawkish of generals sending his troops into that kind of fight. If China invaded they could at least lean on their historical ties to lessen the culture shock. The people would probably be less willing to go to war with Maoists than they are with capitalists. The history between China and NK is very complicated, and I'm not sure how fond the NK people really are of China, but I assume they would be more accepting of a Maoist government than the one that would be put in place by the US.

[Thor.]

Hmm looks like the war is in South Koreas favor right now, especially when China is trying to ease Nuclear tensions between the two country's, especially when the USA is doing war training just of the coast of North Korea in general.

i can see them getting flanked from both ends. South Korea does have the upper hand with more tanks and manpower, though i can see North having a itchy trigger finger if things get dire though, like the flanking thing lol. I'm going down with the ship sort of thing, I hope thats not the case.

Not to mention the USA have hovercraft :thumbsup:

Edited April 27, 2013 by Thor.