Russia and the Ukraine

[rizon72]

Do you think the USA, NATO, Europe, etc, can, or should do anything?

 

Personally I'm not sure they can do anything, or should. I'm also not sure Putin respects Obama and his leadership, which complicates this situation even more, as anything Obama says, Putin will ignore.

 

There is a story that some 20% of Ukrainians are Russian, or something like that, which some say justify Russia's involvement. However, I view that the same as Germany in 1938 annexing parts of Czechoslovakia because the locals were mostly German speaking.

 

Not really seeing a good peaceful solution here, and hoping we don't get dragged into another war, or let a war happen because we don't want to get involved. Its a slippery slope knowing when to get involved to prevent something major from happening and knowing when staying on the side lines.

 

 

[JimboUK]

I don't think there's much we can do other than sending money, NATO won't do anything because European members won't allow it, Europe is reliant on Russian gas and doesn't want to make an enemy of Russia. The E.U stirred this up and it's all gone wrong, now I'm afraid the Ukrainians are on their own.

 

Money is what the country needs more than anything else, it's in real trouble and needs billions over the next few years, the UK has just sent $800m but that's a tiny fraction of what's needed, some of that money will have to come from Russia, it's in the Ukraines interest to find a peaceful solution to this.

[Harbringe]

Lets see , the Russians using elements of their Black Sea Fleet outmaneuvered the US and others ( Israel/Saudi Arabia) on the Syria Issue and now 6 months later the Ukraine is in crisis , exactly where the Black Sea Fleet calls home , methinks this is not coincidence , but just an upping of the ante in the game . This is a very dangerous game people are playing.

[Vagrant0]

Let me be frank for a moment. The best thing that the US and most of the world can do in this situation is to just not get involved. OFC Russia doesn't respect Obama or the US, even the US doesn't respect Obama and the US; what else do you expect when the political machine that actually controls this country has been ground to a near halt because of brutal party infighting? Meanwhile we're still fighting conflicts in the Middle East, also because of misaligned ideals and a failure to have a working leadership. If Russia tried to annex Ukraine, doing so would be their business, and they would likely have a serious amount of internal issues resulting from it since there are likely plenty of Ukrainians who want to remain independent. This is a bluff to see just how insecure the US or the EU really is, and we would be stupid to take it to a showing of force... Even though we probably still will because somewhere in the back of everyone's mind there is this unwavering belief that WWIII is just around the corner and that it will probably involve Russia, China, and the US as main contenders.

[JimboUK]

Isn't Crimea going to hold a referendum on its future? if they do that and it's seen to be fair then result should be respected by all sides.

[rizon72]

I don't see where Russia should get involved either. I've heard from some reports that they think some 20% of Ukrainians are supporters of Russia,/speak Russian or something like that. For me that doesn't give Russia any right to get involved in another country's policies. Reminds me of Czechoslovakia in 1938 when Germany took their land because the people living there spoke German. Of course reality is much more complex, and reporters generally only give their bias in news articles.

 

I see the USA as damned if we do, damned if we don't. Its a no win situation for the President.

[bben46]

I see the present country of Ukraine likely becoming divided much as Yugoslavia was - along ethnic lines. Not really a good solution, but it could head off a serious war there. Neither Russia or EU want to see that as they both prefer to deal with a single entity there - Russia as they need a unified Ukraine that supports them for their Black Sea bases. The EU because they don't want the region to become another Yugoslavia type assortment of small countries each with their own factions that don't get along with each other. Or just about anyone else. - This process of dividing up countries into smaller countries based on ethnicity has been called balkinization after what went on prior to and was one of the probable causes of the First World War.

 

The Present members of the EU don't want that because then each small independent country will be wanting to join the EU as a equal member - meaning the EU becomes more like the UN with a bunch of small countries squabbling over resource allotment and demanding the big countries do things their way. Currently a few large countries control the EU. And can enforce their concepts ( the original concerts that created the EU to begin with) on the smaller countries. When the smaller countries start forming voting blocks - that skews the policy toward what those smaller fringe countries want. Which may not be the same things as those founding countries had in mind when the created the EU.

 

I don't see the US getting involved unless things change drastically from what I'm seeing now. Hopefully the EU, Russia and the various Ukrainian factions can work out a peaceful solution to that mess without the US sticking their nose in it.

[JimboUK]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/02/ukraine-warns-russia-crimea-war-live

 

So much for peace. :sad:

 

 

[Carah]

I've only just recently been watching the events and my heart goes out to the people of the Ukraine and their families abroad. It's a shame Russia is taking advantage of Ukraine's weak government. I hope, like bben says, everyone can work out a peace solution for Ukraine's sake... fingers crossed.

[Beriallord]

There are greater repercussions than simple economic disadvantages that could come out of this, like making a war with Russia. I think its pretty safe to say that options for war are already off the table. If the US pushes any sort of economic sanctions, or freezing of assets, then the Russians will cut off the pipelines leading to Europe, and turn around and sell it to the Chinese instead. This would put a squeeze on oil prices, and they'll skyrocket, which Russia happens to be a major exporter of. Whatever billions in assets get frozen, they'll easily make that back from the rising oil prices. The Russians win in any scenario except for all out war, in which everyone loses. Its checkmate already and the Russians have already won the geopolitical game. The US, NATO, and the UN isn't gonna do anything but talk.

 

And by the way, if you wanna invest in oil futures, now is the time to buy. Prices are only going north the longer this conflict escalates.

Edited March 3, 2014 by Beriallord