Iraq

[MajKrAzAm]

This is one of those dramatic military stories that mean a lot less than meets the eye. The “Iraqi Army” routed by ISIS wasn’t really a national army, and ISIS isn’t really a dominant military force. It was able to occupy those cities because they were vacuums, abandoned by a weak, sectarian force.

Aurelius is correct; by crushing Saddam’s Sunni-led Iraq, the Americans made partition inevitable. Iraq has been partitioned ever since the invasion; it’s just been partitioned badly, into two parts instead of the natural three: the Kurdish north, and the remainder occupied by a weak sectarian Shia force going by the name of “The Iraqi Army.” The center of the country, the so-called “Sunni Triangle,” had no share in this partition and was under the inept, weak rule of the Shia army. ISIS is a response to this grievance.

By occupying (re-taking) the Sunni cities, ISIS has simply made a more rational partition, adding a third part, putting the Sunni Triangle back under Sunni rule. The Shia troops who fled as soon as they heard that the ISIS was on the way seem to have anticipated that the Sunni would claim their own territory someday. That’s why they fled without giving even a pretense of battle - the Sunnis had returned to take back what's theirs.

[JimboUK]

 

 

The IA is very reminiscent of ARVN which we also trained for a decade, they cut a ran during the 1975 Spring Offensive, a bit of 'da ja vu' all considered . You cannot instill a backbone in a jelly fish I'm afraid.

 

Can't buy into the whole jelly fish angle , there is something more going on here than mere cowardice. When ISIS/ISIL attacked Mosul they came in with 800 men and Mosul was garrisoned with 30,000 security/army troops . Mosul is a city of near 2 million and there is no way 800 men could be attacking everywhere , yet the stories coming out is that Iraqi troops were abandoning their positions all over the city virtually simultaneously and it not only happened there , it happened over a wide area , also with similar inequal numbers involved . Literally Iraqi troops were abandoning their positions even when ISIS/ISIL were still miles if not dozens of miles away , that doesn't sound like cowardice , that sounds like people acting on cue .

 

Someone organized this to happen and there is only one country with enough pull with the Sunni's of Iraq (tribal, religious and otherwise) to be able to pull this off and that would be Saudi Arabia , the creator and main funder of ISIS/ISIL . Think about it these guys have advanced hundreds of miles in a few days , taking over major cities in a few hours , something the American army was unable to do in 2 goes at it . It's ludicrous , not buying. It also doesn't make sense that the US is choosing not to bomb these guys , claiming they have no identifiable targets , yet people in the region are reporting Iraqi weapons depots being raided and some transported in big convoys back to Syria.What has satellite tech stopped working , I've seen the videos its not like 1 or 2 trucks , its dozens loaded with all kinds of gear even APC's and artillery loaded on trucks (big trucks) and they can't find a target , seriously . I smell a rat

 

Its pretty simple , Saudi Arabia wants war with Iran as does Israel but Israel wont engage in a war with Iran as long as their ally Assad is still functioning along the border with Israel and so Saudi Arabia (and others) has been funding a proxy war against Assad and are losing (albeit slowly). This is just another upping the ante in an overall strategy to win . Saudi Arabia knows that the Sunni's of Iraq don't give a damn about a Shiite run Iraq and are taking advantage of it for the purpose of a much bigger war.

 

This is just becoming one big mess.

 

Sorry I don't buy into international conspiracy theories, especially ones that have Israel and Saudi Arabia as de facto allies. The Saudi's have been very risk adverse throughout their history and this is high stakes international poker in terms of the stakes involved. As to why we (the US) are not escalating our military involvement that is simple, we have incompetent leadership especially in Foreign Policy which has allowed this situation to devolve ( that unearned Nobel Peace prize is looking more and more ludicrous). We now lead from the extreme rear and the nation is war weary, coupled with mid term Congressional losses for the left looming in October, hence a risk adverse administration.

 

 

We know from leaked cables that Israel and Saudi Arabia aren't quite the enemies their public rhetoric suggests. It may work out OK, Iran have already sent uninvited troops into Iraq to deal with ISIS, if they send enough to drive them north then ISIS could find itself trapped between Iranian and Syrian forces. The Iraqi government itself is becoming more irrelevant by the day, if we sit on our hands then the future of Iraq will be decided by Iran.

[Aurielius]

@Jim

I am fully aware that the default leadership of the region will devolve to Iran (fulfilling their fondest desires) but given the current timid leadership of our two nations can you really see the appetite for yet another intervention? We both know that the EU will wring their hands and do nothing.

[JimboUK]

@Jim

I am fully aware that the default leadership of the region will devolve to Iran (fulfilling their fondest desires) but given the current timid leadership of our two nations can you really see the appetite for yet another intervention? We both know that the EU will wring their hands and do nothing.

 

The leaderships of both the UK and US haven't got a clue what they're doing, last week Cameron stood up in the House of Commons and spoke about the threat ISIS poses to the UK, yet these are the very same people he wanted to arm not so long ago, our governments aren't just cowards, they're also staggeringly stupid.

[Harbringe]

Though not exact did I hit close to the truth "that something big was in the offing" It was just bloggers , myself included speculating about what was going on in Amman Jordan.

 

[post=http://forums.nexusmods.com/index.php?/topic/1459040-russia-and-the-ukraine/?p=13062803][/post]

 

Here's a good take on whats going on , though I think he focuses too much on the US and not enough on the other players (Saudi Arabia , Qatar , Israel , etc) in the game.

 

 

This whole ISIS/ISIL is a smokescreen , what is happening in Iraq is a planned and arranged event . The best estimates I can find on how many ISIS/ISIL there are is 10 - 20 k max and that's including the ones in Syria fighting Assad . It's insane to think they alone could be doing this or that its happening spontaneously . Maj Krazam has it right , its about the Sunni Triangle and the Sunni's are taking back what they feel is rightfully theirs and that's not ISIS/ISIL that's the people who live there ,all the various Sunni tribesmen , Sunni militia's and no doubt scores of Baathist security and army personnel who feel they got screwed over when the Americans came in and disbanded them after conquering the place. For this to happen it takes someone who knows all the players in Iraq intimately , who can be trusted and who can't and only Saudi Arabia can pull something like this off. Granted they would confer (Amman Jordan, hmm) with invested allies to make sure all the ducks were lined up , but their indispensable for something of this scale.

 

Now ISIS/ISIL what they seem to be concentrating on is the border crossings and posts along the Syrian border , they've taken them all , all the way down to the border of Saudi Arabia , including the ones opposite Jordan and the next thing is raiding every weapons depot , tank yard, etc and bank (450 million est alone from Mosul) they can and getting it to Syria as fast as they can. The first of what they have captured has already arrived in Aleppo . Armored American Humvee's transported on giant flatbed trucks , just hashtag Bring back our Humvee on twitter , apparently according to Barack Obama and Chairman of the Joint Chief's Patrick Dempsey , American pilots are no longer able to identify American made equipment (lol) , yeah right keep drinking the cool aid .

 

[post=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/isil-using-us-vehicles-fight-syria-rivals-2014622213927948572.html][/post]

 

And suddenly out of the blue in enters Israel out of great concern for their fellow Arab . Carrying out their largest airstrikes to date in this continuing saga.

 

[post=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27970274][/post]

 

Coincidentally on the same day as this is happening

 

[post=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27974379][/post]

 

I know nothing is connected to nothing , all for nothings sake , its all just happenstance.

Edited June 23, 2014 by Harbringe

[Aurielius]

@Harbringe

I might be wrong but it seems that you think the US government has the political acumen of Borgia's whereas I see them more as Elmer Fudd trying to decide whether it's Duck or Wabbit season.

[Harbringe]

@Harbringe

I might be wrong but it seems that you think the US government has the political acumen of Borgia's whereas I see them more as Elmer Fudd trying to decide whether it's Duck or Wabbit season.

 

No its more case of divided loyalties/patriotism's in the Borgia's . Its all those interests (Israeli , Saudi , Big Oil , Military , Bankers , etc) trying to get the better of things for themselves . Only thing is they are playing a dangerous game and are willing to stab in the back the other players in the game , including the Borgia sitting on the Throne who may or may not have acumen . The only thing certain is that its the rest of us that are the duck and wabbit in season.

 

Basically there is no such thing as loyalty/patriotism in a game of power such as this . In the video above you see that in play at 3:17 . Everything Dick Cheney said in 1994 is bearing true , everything , yet in 2003 he still chose to send Americans into a quagmire , based on a lie , that he knew had no end . That is how a true Borgia plays this game , no loyalty or patriotism.

[Aurielius]

 

@Harbringe

I might be wrong but it seems that you think the US government has the political acumen of Borgia's whereas I see them more as Elmer Fudd trying to decide whether it's Duck or Wabbit season.

 

No its more case of divided loyalties/patriotism's in the Borgia's . Its all those interests (Israeli , Saudi , Big Oil , Military , Bankers , etc) trying to get the better of things for themselves . Only thing is they are playing a dangerous game and are willing to stab in the back the other players in the game , including the Borgia sitting on the Throne who may or may not have acumen . The only thing certain is that its the rest of us that are the duck and wabbit in season.

 

Basically there is no such thing as loyalty/patriotism in a game of power such as this . In the video above you see that in play at 3:17 . Everything Dick Cheney said in 1994 is bearing true , everything , yet in 2003 he still chose to send Americans into a quagmire , based on a lie , that he knew had no end . That is how a true Borgia plays this game , no loyalty or patriotism.

 

I see the essential problem is that Cheney's machiavellian politics required the hand of a Borgia but now it's conducted by Elmer Fudd. The current results were inevitable when vacillation, timidity and underestimation of potential threats replaced disingenuous intrepidity and the will to utilize our power for the maintenance of our prior global superzenity. Then again I do not subscribe to the theory that Foreign Policy and Morality have any real kinship in the successful maintenance of imperial power. I fall in the pragmatist camp since I am fully cognizant that the world sheds no pity on faltering empires but rather closes in for the spoils.

[HeyYou]

What's happening in Iraq is EXACTLY what Bush senior used as reasoning NOT to topple Saddam when he was there the first time. We KNEW this was going to happen, yet in we went anyway.

 

I am real curious what "Victory" we had in Iraq as well. We overthru a legitimate, if distasteful... government, that denied terrorists a region to operate from, and turned it into yet another huge terrorist training camp, complete with real americans to shoot at. This was a war based on lies. Not just from OUR government, but from our 'allies' as well. Israel even ADMITTED that they 'may have overstated the threat'......

 

The relatively complete withdrawl of american forces from iraq was NOT because of OUR government, it was because the Iraqi's didn't like the 'immunity' clause for american troops on Iraqi soil. A sticking point they seem to have gotten over, as the current crop of 300 have that included in their conditions of being there.

 

I think Elmer Fudd would be an improvement in our government at this point...... :D

[JimboUK]

It's going from bad to worse....