North Korea Shells South Korea

[Vagrant0]

The way I see it is this:

 

NK is a wounded, starving animal which has been backed into a corner. The environment in which it grew up and developed is no more and it is unwilling to adapt to a new environment. Those who looked after the animal have grown tired of its demands and repeated snapping at the hand that feeds. If remaining as it was is not an option, it only has two others; accept change, or go down fighting.

 

Given recent history and that the leader wants to establish a legacy as great as his fathers for his son to follow, and that his son, despite being a general, has no experience in combat, the later option is most likely. One who declares himself god is not likely to accept anything less.

 

China probably won't support NK, not only because of being tired of the drama, but also because they have stronger financial and diplomatic interests in those whom NK would declare an enemy. It is not in their interest to defend a country on the grounds of old philosophy when it comes at a cost to their own prosperity. But, in the interim, it is in China's interest to be a friend in the region since this puts them in a better position to be in control of the situation once it becomes unstable and quickly restore order. Sun Tsu was Chinese afterall.

 

While the US doesn't have much claim in that part of the world, or most parts of the world for that matter, it is still a major player in global security and is among the most actively deployed around the world. As these threats are against those who the US has allied with and been charged with protecting, it is their responsibility to maintain a presence in the region and respond to threats. While China and Russia are also world superpowers who have similar claims, these countries are not well trusted by their neighbors simply because of their proximity. China's growing economy and active accumulation or resources only further fuels some distrust of their interests in the region. It is not something as shallow as some white colonialism mentality, but rather that the US is the only other power in the region who isn't likely to just annex that country in time of instability (See Tibet and Georgia). Even if one wanted to bring in the middle east conflicts as a counterpoint to this, one would need to ignore the fact that the US was never an occupying force in this conflict, and was not ever, nor is in now, in any position, or capability to try and claim ownership of the country.

[JimboUK]

Those cables leaked to Wikileaks make it quite clear the U.S doesn't think China would support NK, it may even go as far as supporting a unified Korea governed from Seoul as long as it's not hostile.

[dazzerfong]

Thing is, there's no real economic advantage for China to support NK if there ever WAS a war between the North and the South (which is dead unlikely anyway). SK won't (I'm just speculating here) retaliate for several reasons;

 

1. If they do win, what are they going to do about North Korea? Are the going to assimilate the North Koreans to South Korea?

2. If they lose, they have a lot more to lose than gain if fighting

3. The war would crush SK's export, as they will then be focused on producing war material.

 

Now, why NK won't ever (again, just speculating) do an all-out invasion:

 

1. If they do win, what are they going to do about North Korea? Are they going to purge the populace?

2. If they lose, well, they might just go crazy and start WWIII with nukes.

3. The war would crush NK's economy (even though it's pretty horrible today).

 

Now, as we all know (from Obama's sincere yet failed goals) that politicians these days aren't as realistic as we all hope. Hopefully that's all true.

[Surenas]

Economic interest is just one facet of a hegemonial superpower, the present one and the coming one.

There's probably a leak in Wikileaks due to the lack of journalistic responsibility behind the launched information, China's economic focus is the Asian market even if Chinese containers in Western terminals might convey a different impression here at home.

Moreover, there is a relative consistency in the increase of Chinese military expenditure by some 15 % per anno since the 90s and the country holds number three in the ranking of arms-import counties since a decade.

 

And all this they do with a typical smile.

The Western idea of a possible Korean remake of the German fall of the wall is farfetched cos the necessary components - perestroika and glasnost - are not part of the Chinese party policy, political suicide is not in the interest of the Communist Party.

Edited December 1, 2010 by Surenas

[Vagrant0]

Economic interest is just one facet of a hegemonial superpower, the present one and the coming one.

There's probably a leak in Wikileaks due to the lack of journalistic responsibility behind the launched information, China's economic focus is the Asian market even if Chinese containers in Western terminals might convey a different impression here at home.

Moreover, there is a relative consistency in the increase of Chinese military expenditure by some 15 % per anno since the 90s and the country holds number three in the ranking of arms-import counties since a decade.

 

And all this they do with a typical smile.

The Western idea of a possible Korean remake of the German fall of the wall is farfetched cos the necessary components - perestroika and glasnost - are not part of the Chinese party policy, political suicide is not in the interest of the Communist Party.

Even if one argues that China would defend NK on the grounds of Communist Ideals, it just simply doesn't hold water. NK's government is a dictatorship, not a communism. It is rather easy to prove that KJI's actions are not in the best interest of his people, and as such he is not upholding his end of a communist doctrine. Furthermore, many of the diplomats and lawmakers in Chinese government seem actually favor a detachment of communist ideals, but only stop short of doing so because of long-standing grass-roots communist beliefs among the population. Maybe you havn't been paying attention, but China really isn't even communist at this point. They still hold communist some ideals, but have adopted something more akin to democracy.

[Surenas]

Your closing rate is not worth a thing, Vagrant, unfortunately.

The Chinese have adopted nothing from us, instead they have interpreted something.

Consequently their "democracy" is not akin to ours but a dissimilar similitude,it shows

the mere optical relation of a wombat to a house mouse, that is - actually there's none.

The Chinese communism is absolutely safe due to its "Borg tactics" of interpretive

assimilation of successful political and economical theories from outside.

 

This makes the Chinese actions very difficult to comprehend for Westeners with the

consequence that they easily get wrong interpreted ... possibly with fatal results.

What we get is not what we see *lol* The Chinese puppeteers are everything but meatheads.

Edited December 2, 2010 by Surenas

[Vagrant0]

This makes the Chinese actions very difficult to comprehend for Westeners with the

consequence that they easily get wrong interpreted ... possibly with fatal results.

Whats hard to comprehend, they've always acted with what serves their own interests. At this moment, their interests are set on increasing presence in the region, establishing financial and political ties with other countries, and in acquiring the resources to keep up internal development. It simply does not serve their long term interests to back NK if things were pushed to a state of war.

[Surenas]

This makes the Chinese actions very difficult to comprehend for Westeners with the

consequence that they easily get wrong interpreted ... possibly with fatal results.

Whats hard to comprehend, they've always acted with what serves their own interests. At this moment, their interests are set on increasing presence in the region, establishing financial and political ties with other countries, and in acquiring the resources to keep up internal development. It simply does not serve their long term interests to back NK if things were pushed to a state of war.

 

You haven't yet understood anything of Chinese communism. Trained in Western What-You-See-Is-What-You-Get philosophy you're trapped, that's all. You take the smiling wombat for a house mouse. Remarkable,

[dazzerfong]

Sureans, are you Chinese or not? You can't really make such a comment unless you're Chinese (not just Asian).

 

But both your points still stane: China's main priority (speculating right now) is mainly forging new alliances rather than firing everyone up. Also, you can't really say China's a communist state: arguably, even Australia is more socialist than China (I'm a Chinese in Australia).

 

However, Vagrant0, your point on the unpreditability of the Chinese is wrong. They're actually quite easy to guess (their motives). Also, remember that the USA and China need each other: China's the biggest purchaser of American Bonds, and America is the single biggest consumer of Chinese goods, in other words, a symbiotic relationship.

Edited December 2, 2010 by dazzerfong

[marharth]

Too many people have been brainwashed into the cold war idea of "HATE COMMUNISM!11".

 

China is only communist in its politics, and it is even partly democratic...

 

I would say china is half-half if anything...

 

They are also clearly capitalist, and are heading in a way of setting up a full democracy...

 

My question is, why does it matter if its a democracy or not?

 

Not sure if anyone realizes this, but people are not that great at voting. In the USA people vote for who they think talks/looks the best, and the person with the most ads on TV.

 

Democracy is really not that great, and people need to stop thinking just because they are not our magic government system that they don't like us.

 

I mean seriously, if people didn't get there minds changed every few years why do we have different ideologies voted in? The media changes everyone's views, and it makes democracy no better then communism.

Edited December 2, 2010 by marharth