The situation in Egypt

[SpellAndShield]

You know, if the West just left the Middle East alone, the Shia and Sunnis would spend years fighting and killing each other, totally preoccupied and resulting in a sharp decline in Islam as a result of the death toll, which would be a wonderful thing. That is probably the best reason for us to withdraw.

 

I beg your pardon? You do mean Islamic Extremists, correct? Not the Islam Religion... :ermm:

 

We aren't really allowed to talk about religion here but I mean Islam in general, of course after they butcher each other to death maybe they would realise how silly it is and would come to their senses. In any event, I am of the opinion that Islam/the Middle East needs to undergo a historical dialectical process similar to what we had with the Reformation (which was bloody and took a long time); it was this process that eventually led to secular thought and systems of political bodies divorced from the Church. Western interference prevents that process from happening.

Edited February 18, 2011 by Stardusk

[Harbringe]

The Iranians sending ships (actually 1 Warship and 1 Supply ship) through the Suez was something that has been in the works since the incident with the Turkish flotilla mission to the Gaza Strip .Originally they had planned to send 2 Red Crescent (Muslim Red Cross) ships but some figured Israel just might sink them ,so it was changed to 1 Warship and 1 Supply ship.The insinuation that Iran is just doing this to stir the pot is misplaced as it was something they had planned to do long before the current situation in the Middle East had developed ,something they could have not have forseen and lets face it if you were to judge which Nation the current situation is causing the most problems for it would be Iran ,this whole democracy thing is just bad news for them. Strangely enough its the people who raise the spectre of these Iranian ships as a bogeyman that are helping out the Iranians , they (Iran) would like nothing better than for the current revolts to be given a muslim vs America context because that's what the regime in Iran is built on , its what keeps them in power.

 

Most likely the original plan for this would have to been 1) Drop some token humanitarian supplies to the people of Gaza Strip (Giving cover for real intent) 2) Proceed to Lebanon and drop the real cargo to Hizbollah and Syria.

 

Whether they had planned it or not, I very much doubt that the timing is a coincidence. There is a lot of trouble in the region right now. Iran is having problems of its' own due to that turbulence. So Ahmedinajad decides to stage a distraction manoeuvre precisely in the hope of provoking an incident that can allow him to invoke the "Muslim vs America" argument and unite his people. But I suspect neither the USA nor the Iranian people are going to fall for that. He's a worried man I don't doubt. It's in his interests to try and stir things up.

 

Yes the Iranians are doing that ,but there are those in Israel who have been playing their own games of trying to give the revolts a certain color or context .They tried in Egypt with the references to the Muslim Brotherhood bogeyman and their doing the same with this recent announcement of Iran .The point is if your the Americans and you allow that painting of context to be applied to these current democratic revolts ,you will have missed what is really happening and that is what is misplaced in the insinuations they are making .These democratic revolts are one thing , the actions of the Iranians or even the Israeli's are another ,get those interests confused and it could result in exactly what the Iranians want ,a general middle east anti American uprising.For the Americans allowing Saudi Arabia or Israel or Iran or anyone else to tie these democratic revolts with their antics or interests in the region could be a fatal mistake for the Americans should they fall into one of those traps .See it for what it is , one is one thing ,the other is another and don't mix the two.

[marharth]

You know, if the West just left the Middle East alone, the Shia and Sunnis would spend years fighting and killing each other, totally preoccupied and resulting in a sharp decline in Islam as a result of the death toll, which would be a wonderful thing. That is probably the best reason for us to withdraw.

 

I beg your pardon? You do mean Islamic Extremists, correct? Not the Islam Religion... :ermm:

 

We aren't really allowed to talk about religion here but I mean Islam in general, of course after they butcher each other to death maybe they would realise how silly it is and would come to their senses. In any event, I am of the opinion that Islam/the Middle East needs to undergo a historical dialectical process similar to what we had with the Reformation (which was bloody and took a long time); it was this process that eventually led to secular thought and systems of political bodies divorced from the Church. Western interference prevents that process from happening.

You do know that there are more Christan murderers then Islamic ones right? I suppose you also want every Christan to butcher each other to death?

[IndorilTheGreat]

We aren't really allowed to talk about religion here but I mean Islam in general, of course after they butcher each other to death maybe they would realise how silly it is and would come to their senses. In any event, I am of the opinion that Islam/the Middle East needs to undergo a historical dialectical process similar to what we had with the Reformation (which was bloody and took a long time); it was this process that eventually led to secular thought and systems of political bodies divorced from the Church. Western interference prevents that process from happening.

 

I still find it rather... unsettling, that you suggest that there ought to be a war between two groups, with many, many people dying in the process. I can understand if you mean they need to "let off some steam," but I believe that it would be preferable in a way that involves minimal (i.e. none) bloodshed.

 

You do know that there are more Christan murderers then Islamic ones right? I suppose you also want every Christan to butcher each other to death?

 

Let's not say something that we may regret in the future... :unsure: Just saying. :thumbsup:

 

That being said, I do believe that there are similar ways to deal with what Stardusk is talking about, albeit with no bloodshed (as I mentioned above).

[ginnyfizz]

The Iranians sending ships (actually 1 Warship and 1 Supply ship) through the Suez was something that has been in the works since the incident with the Turkish flotilla mission to the Gaza Strip .Originally they had planned to send 2 Red Crescent (Muslim Red Cross) ships but some figured Israel just might sink them ,so it was changed to 1 Warship and 1 Supply ship.The insinuation that Iran is just doing this to stir the pot is misplaced as it was something they had planned to do long before the current situation in the Middle East had developed ,something they could have not have forseen and lets face it if you were to judge which Nation the current situation is causing the most problems for it would be Iran ,this whole democracy thing is just bad news for them. Strangely enough its the people who raise the spectre of these Iranian ships as a bogeyman that are helping out the Iranians , they (Iran) would like nothing better than for the current revolts to be given a muslim vs America context because that's what the regime in Iran is built on , its what keeps them in power.

 

Most likely the original plan for this would have to been 1) Drop some token humanitarian supplies to the people of Gaza Strip (Giving cover for real intent) 2) Proceed to Lebanon and drop the real cargo to Hizbollah and Syria.

 

Whether they had planned it or not, I very much doubt that the timing is a coincidence. There is a lot of trouble in the region right now. Iran is having problems of its' own due to that turbulence. So Ahmedinajad decides to stage a distraction manoeuvre precisely in the hope of provoking an incident that can allow him to invoke the "Muslim vs America" argument and unite his people. But I suspect neither the USA nor the Iranian people are going to fall for that. He's a worried man I don't doubt. It's in his interests to try and stir things up.

 

Yes the Iranians are doing that ,but there are those in Israel who have been playing their own games of trying to give the revolts a certain color or context .They tried in Egypt with the references to the Muslim Brotherhood bogeyman and their doing the same with this recent announcement of Iran .The point is if your the Americans and you allow that painting of context to be applied to these current democratic revolts ,you will have missed what is really happening and that is what is misplaced in the insinuations they are making .These democratic revolts are one thing , the actions of the Iranians or even the Israeli's are another ,get those interests confused and it could result in exactly what the Iranians want ,a general middle east anti American uprising.For the Americans allowing Saudi Arabia or Israel or Iran or anyone else to tie these democratic revolts with their antics or interests in the region could be a fatal mistake for the Americans should they fall into one of those traps .See it for what it is , one is one thing ,the other is another and don't mix the two.

 

I totally take on board your point, which is why I say Ahmedinajad's stunt is a crude one that is doomed to fail in the provocation stakes. He's trying something that isn't going to work. The USA won't rise to the bait. The Iranian people won't fall for it. He is, as it were, shouting at an empty room.

 

And, with respect, a court of law in the US has found that the Muslim Brotherhood are something rather more than a mere mythical bogeyman. Investigative journalism here in the UK has borne this out. Sedition is part and parcel of their mission statement.

[HappyHerring]

The Iranians sending ships (actually 1 Warship and 1 Supply ship) through the Suez was something that has been in the works since the incident with the Turkish flotilla mission to the Gaza Strip .Originally they had planned to send 2 Red Crescent (Muslim Red Cross) ships but some figured Israel just might sink them ,so it was changed to 1 Warship and 1 Supply ship.The insinuation that Iran is just doing this to stir the pot is misplaced as it was something they had planned to do long before the current situation in the Middle East had developed ,something they could have not have forseen and lets face it if you were to judge which Nation the current situation is causing the most problems for it would be Iran ,this whole democracy thing is just bad news for them. Strangely enough its the people who raise the spectre of these Iranian ships as a bogeyman that are helping out the Iranians , they (Iran) would like nothing better than for the current revolts to be given a muslim vs America context because that's what the regime in Iran is built on , its what keeps them in power.

 

Most likely the original plan for this would have to been 1) Drop some token humanitarian supplies to the people of Gaza Strip (Giving cover for real intent) 2) Proceed to Lebanon and drop the real cargo to Hizbollah and Syria.

 

Whether they had planned it or not, I very much doubt that the timing is a coincidence. There is a lot of trouble in the region right now. Iran is having problems of its' own due to that turbulence. So Ahmedinajad decides to stage a distraction manoeuvre precisely in the hope of provoking an incident that can allow him to invoke the "Muslim vs America" argument and unite his people. But I suspect neither the USA nor the Iranian people are going to fall for that. He's a worried man I don't doubt. It's in his interests to try and stir things up.

 

Yes the Iranians are doing that ,but there are those in Israel who have been playing their own games of trying to give the revolts a certain color or context .They tried in Egypt with the references to the Muslim Brotherhood bogeyman and their doing the same with this recent announcement of Iran .The point is if your the Americans and you allow that painting of context to be applied to these current democratic revolts ,you will have missed what is really happening and that is what is misplaced in the insinuations they are making .These democratic revolts are one thing , the actions of the Iranians or even the Israeli's are another ,get those interests confused and it could result in exactly what the Iranians want ,a general middle east anti American uprising.For the Americans allowing Saudi Arabia or Israel or Iran or anyone else to tie these democratic revolts with their antics or interests in the region could be a fatal mistake for the Americans should they fall into one of those traps .See it for what it is , one is one thing ,the other is another and don't mix the two.

 

I totally take on board your point, which is why I say Ahmedinajad's stunt is a crude one that is doomed to fail in the provocation stakes. He's trying something that isn't going to work. The USA won't rise to the bait. The Iranian people won't fall for it. He is, as it were, shouting at an empty room.

 

And, with respect, a court of law in the US has found that the Muslim Brotherhood are something rather more than a mere mythical bogeyman. Investigative journalism here in the UK has borne this out. Sedition is part and parcel of their mission statement.

 

Agreed it is a stunt of the type which the Conservative/Revolutionary Guard axis of the Iranian regime seem to delight in. I suspect the intention was to provoke Israel rather than directly the U.S. as in the Iranian estimation they could be expected to be drawn in to the situation in any event.

I see no possibility that the Israelis would allow such a provocative thing as an Iranian military detachment visiting Gaza when they were prepared to put up with internation condemnation of the interception of the Turkish flotilla. Let us consider the state in Lebanon at the moment, the Shia clients of Iran have gained power while having an international court statement hanging over them. The supposed freedom fighters of Lebanon need something to deflect arab attention from the likely statement that they are in fact traitors to their own nation. A brief military exchange between the Iranians and the Israelis, even at the cost of wrecked Iranian war vessels, might have been calculated as worthwhile as a trigger for a Shia provocation against the north of Israel. End result of such confict, other than thousands of innocent dead (martyrs, so in the mind of the fanatics they shouldn't mind their fates), would be kudos for Hezbollah and

Iran.

Just as western nations cannot predict everything neither can middle eastern states, at the moment I wouldn't put it past the Iranians to try to go bluff and actually go through the canal at the second attempt in what would be a convenient deflection excercise for both themselves and the arab nations who cannot stand them.:mad:

[JimboUK]

Well things do seem have turned really nasty in Bahrain....

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/bahrain/8334771/Bahrain-royal-family-orders-army-to-turn-on-the-people.html

[Harbringe]

Well things do seem have turned really nasty in Bahrain....

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/bahrain/8334771/Bahrain-royal-family-orders-army-to-turn-on-the-people.html

 

I seen a live broadcast from streets and a hospital where the wounded and dying were being taken and people were absolutely outraged at what their government had done .The Bahrain royal family has made a fatal mistake ,before the protesters were just calling for changes in policy or the removal of certain officials ,but after this there were people calling for the removal of the royal family itself .Really stupid thing they did.

 

Wonder what the American response to this will be ,being as the Headquarters of the 5th Fleet is there .Its not going to go down well if the Americans just mutely stand by while the government goes around gunning down people protesting for democratic change .This one has gotten tricky for Obama.

[JimboUK]

Good god, it's even worse in Libya. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/18/bahrain-libya-yemen-protests-violence

 

@Harbringe I'm not sure what Obama can do at the moment, surely he must be making plans to move the 5th Fleet if Bahrain descends into chaos.

[HappyHerring]

How curious that the 'revolutionary' government of Libya, who in the past has supported everyone from I.R.A. to Corsican nationalists to F.A.R.C. should respond to the expresion of citizens' dissatisfaction with brutal violence, maybe the security apparatus is under some missaprehension about the desires of the citizen committees...

 

Hopefully bang goes another scummy, squalid dictatorship!

 

:thumbsup: