Iran

[Nintii]

@ HeyYou, thus far they are at 20% in their enrichment process ...

 

Quote

 

Does Iran have enough enriched uranium to move toward the higher-enriched, weapons-grade material?

 

Judging by the amounts noted in the IAEA reports, the answer is yes. But those reports also say there is no indication that Iran has moved beyond the 20 percent threshold.

The current known amount of 3.5 percent enriched uranium is enough to be turned into cores for four warheads if further enriched.

Enriching enough of it for a single warhead would take about four months with the available centrifuge equipment, says nuclear proliferation expert David Albright.

The confirmed stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium is about half the amount needed for potential warhead. At the current enrichment pace, it would reach the required amount

by the end of the year, according to IAEA figures. The 20-percent material can be converted to weapons-grade much faster than the lower level uranium.

 

end quote ... from 3 News.

 

Is it any wonder why the US, Israel and the UN is getting concerned.

[Lisnpuppy]

Harbringe et al.

 

This is the only warning anyone is going to get in this thread. Talk about Iran, talk about Israel as it views Iran's nuclear program but leave Israel and its nuclear program and its right to nationhood out of this debate. Stay or topic please or I will start issuing strikes.

~Lisnpuppy

[myrmaad]

Personally, I do not see how you can possibly carry on an intelligent conversation regarding Iranian politics without invoking Israel. :rolleyes:

[marharth]

I think Lisn is saying that it is okay to talk about Isreal, but only in relation to Iran.

[Lisnpuppy]

Personally, I do not see how you can possibly carry on an intelligent conversation regarding Iranian politics without invoking Israel. :rolleyes:

 

Yes as Marharth said...and as I am sure you saw I have warned these guys already about making this entire thread about Israel's nuclear armory and their right to nationhood...which is not the OP topic. As a avid historian (both by private study and my choice of degree) I would not dream of asking them to leave Israel out of the conversation, but leave it only as it pertains to their dealings with Iran. Please forgive me if I was not clear enough, for you, in that regard.~Lisnpuppy

[Harbringe]

<br>@ Harbinge ... I have just deleted a huge post on which I spent a lot of time and reserch in favor of this article ...<br><br><a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf119_nucleariran.html" class="bbc_url" title="External link" rel="nofollow external">Link to the World Nuclear Association</a><br><br>Armed with all my new knowledge from reading plenty of diverse articles ranging from Agriculture, Medicine, Energy, Environmental, and their host of sub-topics I will conclude with this statement ... Ok, so allow Iran to build there nuclear reactors but completely ban their  enrichment activities ... without reservation.<br>

<br><br>So when it comes to this running of their nuclear reactors and assume its just for civilian use , like providing heat and lighting for their schools , hospitals , homes ,industry , etc , etc would they be allowed to run them in the most efficient manner possible in order to maximize the energy output and thus the possible profits they could make (you do believe in the profit margin right , everyone is allowed to make a profit right) well what is the enrichment capacity one needs to make that profitable , betcha its higher than the 20% enrichment capacity they reached last year .Or how about nuclear medicine would they be allowed to say become leaders in the treatment of childhood leukemia or some other noble pursuit , well that can require an enrichment capacity of up to 80%. Hmmm things are not so clear cut anymore eh. So lets stick with the no enrichment option and find a way for them to still do these other things. Only one way do it is for them and of course you can't make any profit from it because its something your imposing on them . So are you willing to have those costs come out of your pocket , because it ain't coming out of mine. This is what Ziggy is talking about when he said that he was concerned that the Israeli's would demand conditions that would be impossible to meet.<br><br>You know we hear about this issue or that issue and in today's world it seems to have become all about fear and really what I see is those in power where ever that may be , using that fear to manipulate us into things we otherwise would not consider ,yet they blabber on not even knowing what it is we should truly fear.So try this on for size.<br><br>Iran literally sits in the center of a sea of oil , just over 60% of the worlds entire supply. So lets say war starts and it spirals out of control but doesn't go nuclear and oil producing regions have their production capabilities disrupted or even destroyed for a period of 5 years .Well go do some research on how intricately tied oil is to our food production capabilities , go look at some oil consumption and population growth graphs and see how they literally mirror each other. So even if it doesn't go nuclear we could lose anywhere from a third to half of the worlds oil capacity , taking along with it our food producing capacity and at any given time I think there is only 50 days or less food supply in the world.We North Americans might get along fairly well as we actually produce enough for ourselves and a billion plus , the rest of ya have got big problems really big problems .1 - 2  billion people dying is not outside the realm of possibility , seriously its not just do the math.This is what that official under the Shah was implying by saying we don't need a bomb we have the Straits of Hormuz .Lets see close the Straits (no one can stop them) , missiles hitting oil facilities from Kuwait along the Saudi coast to about Oman , explosions and secondary explosions literally setting the entire region ablaze , would make what Saddam did to Kuwait look like a campfire. Mahdi Army forces would strike out in Iraq at anything American and all oil facilities . Stock markets and economies would begin to crash around the world , hoarding , panic buying would ensue , governments would in many places declare emergency or martial law and of course all the fighting that would be going on.Just so Israel can have a regional nuclear hegemony that allows them to take another's land unimpeded . Seriously these are the kind of possibilities we are willing to risk.<br><br><font color="#FFFF00">@LP seem to be falling in between when I post and when you warn , as in working on post and post it and its oh look LP wrote something orange. just so you know..But seriously this is happening because Israel claims Iran is an existential threat ,that is hostile to them , why are they hostile because Iran claims Israel is an Zionist imperialist bent on taking someone else's land , who's land ,the Palestinians and this is all coming about because Israel is worried about Iran getting the bomb and if you tried to limit it to just a discussion of Iran and Israel and nuclear weapons , then the whole Israel nuclear policy kicks in and how they are not a signatory to the NPT and why is there a double standard , it becomes an impossibility not to talk one in relationship to the other.Trying to do so is like banksters telling you , you can solve your debt problems by taking on more debt and just kickin that can down the road until the debt like this current situation explodes in your face.</font><br>

 

 

@LP there's supposed to be a msg for you in all that gobbleygook but something screwed up on me , it was supposed to come out in yellow

Edited April 2, 2012 by Harbringe

[HeyYou]

@ Harbinge ... I have just deleted a huge post on which I spent a lot of time and reserch in favor of this article ...

 

Link to the World Nuclear Association

 

Armed with all my new knowledge from reading plenty of diverse articles ranging from Agriculture, Medicine, Energy, Environmental, and their host of sub-topics I will conclude with this statement ... Ok, so allow Iran to build there nuclear reactors but completely ban their enrichment activities ... without reservation.

 

So when it comes to this running of their nuclear reactors and assume its just for civilian use , like providing heat and lighting for their schools , hospitals , homes ,industry , etc , etc would they be allowed to run them in the most efficient manner possible in order to maximize the energy output and thus the possible profits they could make (you do believe in the profit margin right , everyone is allowed to make a profit right) well what is the enrichment capacity one needs to make that profitable , betcha its higher than the 20% enrichment capacity they reached last year .Or how about nuclear medicine would they be allowed to say become leaders in the treatment of childhood leukemia or some other noble pursuit , well that can require an enrichment capacity of up to 80%. Hmmm things are not so clear cut anymore eh. So lets stick with the no enrichment option and find a way for them to still do these other things. Only one way do it is for them and of course you can't make any profit from it because its something your imposing on them . So are you willing to have those costs come out of your pocket , because it ain't coming out of mine. This is what Ziggy is talking about when he said that he was concerned that the Israeli's would demand conditions that would be impossible to meet.

 

You know we hear about this issue or that issue and in today's world it seems to have become all about fear and really what I see is those in power where ever that may be , using that fear to manipulate us into things we otherwise would not consider ,yet they blabber on not even knowing what it is we should truly fear.So try this on for size.

 

Iran literally sits in the center of a sea of oil , just over 60% of the worlds entire supply. So lets say war starts and it spirals out of control but doesn't go nuclear and oil producing regions have their production capabilities disrupted or even destroyed for a period of 5 years .Well go do some research on how intricately tied oil is to our food production capabilities , go look at some oil consumption and population growth graphs and see how they literally mirror each other. So even if it doesn't go nuclear we could lose anywhere from a third to half of the worlds oil capacity , taking along with it our food producing capacity and at any given time I think there is only 50 days or less food supply in the world.We North Americans might get along fairly well as we actually produce enough for ourselves and a billion plus , the rest of ya have got big problems really big problems .1 - 2 billion people dying is not outside the realm of possibility , seriously its not just do the math.This is what that official under the Shah was implying by saying we don't need a bomb we have the Straits of Hormuz .Lets see close the Straits (no one can stop them) , missiles hitting oil facilities from Kuwait along the Saudi coast to about Oman , explosions and secondary explosions literally setting the entire region ablaze , would make what Saddam did to Kuwait look like a campfire. Mahdi Army forces would strike out in Iraq at anything American and all oil facilities . Stock markets and economies would begin to crash around the world , hoarding , panic buying would ensue , governments would in many places declare emergency or martial law and of course all the fighting that would be going on.Just so Israel can have a regional nuclear hegemony that allows them to take another's land unimpeded . Seriously these are the kind of possibilities we are willing to risk.

 

All of that last paragraph could happen, regardless of whether Iran has nukes, enrichment capabilities, or not. Given the pressure of the sanctions on Iran, and the trend to keep applying more and more, the likelihood of them attempting to close the straights is reasonably high. However, the US has a pretty significant presence in the area....... and could make relatively short work of the Iranian navy.... (but, not without some losses....) If that was the end of it, Iran could close the straights for a month or so. No big deal for america, our strategic reserves would see us thru that... not sure about the rest of the world. Now, if the war dragged on, the scenario you put forth could quite easily come to pass, without a single nuclear weapon being produced in Iran, or any being used by any of the other participants.

 

So, shall we continue to pile on more and more sanctions, in the vain hope that Iran will "see the light", and give up their enrichment facilities? How likely do you see that as being? I suspect the odds of that are vanishingly small. So, from that perspective, the war you describe is inevitable. And if someone makes a pre-emptive strike on Iran's facilities? Do you think they are going to just sit back and take it? Oh no. They will strike out at what they KNOW will hurt the western world. (and most everyone else as well...) We simply do not have the military power to reduce Iran sufficiently to avoid such an outcome. Unless WE resort to nukes. World opinion won't allow that route.

 

So, by all appearances, continuing on the course we are currently pursuing, inevitably leads to war in the middle east. Is that REALLY what we want? More so than a potentially nuclear armed Iran??

[Lisnpuppy]

All I want is that the attention remain on the OP topic. For several pages of post there was nothing about Iran and all it was becoming was Israel's right to be a Nation and their nuclear program. It has to be ABOUT Iran....not Israel if you get my drift.

[Nintii]

@ Harbinge ... THE OIL ANGLE ... Well, that's interesting to note that North America would survive any petroleum problems should there be any problems with oil coming from the Middle East ... as you say.

South Africa is in a unique position in that it has the technology to convert coal into petroleum ... this technique was invented here

and here's a quote from Sasol's website ...

 

"At its giant synfuels complex at Secunda in South Africa,Sasol converts more than 40-million metric tons of coal a year into

liquid fuels, industrial pipeline gas and a range of chemical feedstock, including the building blocks for industrial solvents and

polymers. The Secunda site comprises two giant factories with a combined capacity equivalent to about 150,000 barrels a day".

 

end quote.

 

I've been past their complex at Secunda a number of times ... you'd swear you were in the Middle East with all those pipes

thingies sticking into the air - whatever you call them - with the flames ... yeah, you get the picture.

 

BUT, that will not be a problem ... Iran will not be able to stop the flow of oil ... as a matter of fact I think the US or the UN is trying

to enforce a blockade on Iranian oil ... this would in fact according to the article I've read, drive the price of oil from Iran down.

 

Another quote

 

In the U.S., the Defense Department is studying coal-to-oil technology as a way to reduce the American military's dependence on

Middle Eastern crude oil. And the National Coal Council, an industry association, is pushing for government incentives to help

generate some 2.6 million barrels of liquid fuel a day from coal by 2025. That would satisfy some 10 percent of America's

expected oil demand that year. The plan would require 475 million tons of coal a year, which represents more than 40 percent

of current annual U.S. production. Industry officials believe America's coal reserves are big enough to allow for the extra

production.

 

end quote ... Pittsburg Post Gazette.

 

So yes, Iran is extremely important as an oil producer but if push comes to shove we will still survive.

The current state of the world's energy resources ... estimates indicate the world has just 41 years of known oil reserves and

65 years of natural-gas supplies. It has enough coal reserves to last an estimated 155 years, with some of the largest reserves

in the two biggest oil-consuming countries, the U.S. and China.

So all is not lost if Iran is censured ... it will be tight but not impossible to live with.

 

Here's a link to the Iranian Oil Sanctions .... Oil Sanctions ... BBC News

Edited April 3, 2012 by Nintii

[Harbringe]

Just deleted a well written response to Nintii and its all coming up gobblygook , no paragraphs , no structure , so I deleted the entire thing . Anyone know why this has started happening to me Edited April 3, 2012 by Harbringe