Probability of the near destruction of humanity?

[Zmid]

It's an interesting thought experiment, but it's flawed. In terms of 'being members of the human race', you are not really any different from me. Our ancestors are not really different from our descendants. As such, it's as if all the globes have an X on them.

[Wookiee]

personaly I am of a beleaf that the human race will eventualy die out... but not for a very long time with one hellova fight on the way out.

 

the problem we have is, to quote the matrix "your a disease" indeed the human race is like a virus... and in nature any virus that becomes to potent eventualy is its own unmaking... if i virus kills its host befor it can spread it dies with the host... we are killing our plannet at an alarming rate and I for one recomend suporting the space race or we are going to die with the planet (conspiracy theory No. 1 that is the real reason for NASA to find new habitable worlds for the filthy rich in the unavoidable event of this worlds decomposition) on the other hand viruses that dont do to much harm to the host if indeed any are more secsessfull (take mixamatoses for example... it still exists just not in its original potent form)...

 

in conclusion in my comparing humans to a deadly viral strain I would just like to pose a thought...

 

wouldent it be nice if only the most potent viral strains died out in the host befor it took all the not so potent tree hugging strains with them when the one rabbit we have to live on is counting on us not to kill it... and in turn us.

[KzinistZerg]

*Blink* *Blink* What?

 

You lost me a few scentences in. Postulating that the unvierse ends, humanity is doomed. Other than that there is little you can say about the probable lifespan of humanity without more facts.

 

And living a while... having an effect on probable lifespan continuing... depends o nthe scenario... and once again it's like trying to think of, say, what the effect fo th wheel is when you only know about one spoke.

 

And besides, ants have been around for... I believe, correct me if i'm wrong, since the dinosaurs, or before.

[Stanhead]

I know Rhinoes have been around for over 10 million years. And I think Crocodiles have been around a lot longer than that...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Fish have been around for over 70 million years. Birds have been around for a while too.

 

 

The fact is that we're overdue for dozens of end-of-the-world scenarios:

 

Yellowstone park erupts roughly every 50,000 years. We are about a thousand years overdue.

 

The end-of-the-world theory that most scares me is probably the Maya's theory. Will it be the end of everything? Or will it be the dawning of the age of Aquarius? No one really knows. One thing's for sure, though. December 21st of the year 2012 is the day time as we know it will end.

 

So at least claim the Maya's, that ancient civilization that lived in the Mesoamerica's since 2,600 BC. The Maya's had an extremely complicated method of keeping track of time, based on three separate calendars. The most important, most encompassing of these calendars holds the `Long Count': the period from the beginning until the end of time. And on December 21st 2012, the Long Count expires. It will be point zero. Time will be up for the Universe. It will be, literally, the end of days.

 

Big deal, you might say. Still, there's a couple of very interesting (and disturbing) facts about the Maya calendar's end. Most intriguing, 21-12-2012 is not a day like any other. Up in the sky, an extraordinary and incredibly rare event will take place. The Sun will move to a unique spot in the sky -- and hold still for a while, since it is solstice day. The Sun will sit precisely on the heavenly crossroads between the Milky Way and the galactic equinox, forming a perfect alignment with the center of the galaxy.

 

Er... what?

 

Well: the night time sky is crossed by several mathematical lines. One is the axis of the Milky Way -- the Milky Way, as you may know, being that bright band of stars you can see running across the heavens on a clear night. Another important line is the cosmological ecliptic: the axis along which the constellations travel, the line that defines coordinates in space.

 

You can say a lot about the Maya, but you've got to hand it to them: they knew a hell of a lot about stars. For instance, they calculated the exact duration of a year to a thousandth of a decimal point, much more precise than any Greek or enlightened philosopher ever did. Also, they were able to predict every solar and lunar eclipse until this day. And obviously, they knew where the galactic equinox and the exact middle of the Milky Way lay: they called this crossing `the Sacred Tree'.

 

More disturbing, the Maya's were awfully good at astrology, too. Mysteriously, they predicted in what year their civilization would be overrun by foreigners coming from over the seas. They even predicted the World Wars. So if a Maya tells you the world will end in 2012, you'd better take it seriously.

 

So what awaits us in 2012 basically is an open question. And as with so many open questions, countless doom preachers, semi-prophets and other crackpots pop up to provide an answer. The interpretation you hear most: 2012 will mark the coming of a new, glorious age of wisdom and peace. It will be Age Of Aquarius at last, with a world full of peace, love and understanding.

 

The reasoning behind this is actually not that stupid. The Maya's didn't really believed in endings: their conception of time was circular, with every end being the beginning of something new. So, 2012 shouldn't be an exception.

 

Also, the Maya's had a highly developed philosophy of the cosmos. They saw the cosmos as the true mother of things. Consequently, the Maya's thought the cosmos is all around us, and within us. Every plant, every animal, every man is sheer Cosmos.

 

So, New Age philosophers say, December 21st 2012 will be the day on which this inner cosmos is reconnected to the divine outer cosmos. The Sun will mount its unique position to form a `gateway' between the Universe and the souls of every living creature on Earth. Our linear conception of time will crumble, and with it, fear and hatred will vanish. It will be purification at it's very best, when everyone is soaked in cosmic understanding and divine love.

 

So there it is: on December 20th, you'll kick your dog, yell at your spouse and cheat on cards. But a day later, you'll be calmed down into a peaceful person with nothing but love and understanding to guide you in life. Even though it's mid-winter, it'll be summer of love for all humanity.

 

Other doomsayers foresee doom and destruction. December 21st will be the day the Earth will be destroyed. Some think it will be because of some nuclear war, some say it will be because it's biblical judgment day. Even others take the ending of the Maya calendar more literally, and claim the Universe will just cease to exist.

 

There's something to be said in favor of such sinister scenario's, too. The Maya divided their Long Count into five lumps of time, called Great Cycles. And every cycle had a well defined end. The second cycle ended in air, the third in fire, the fourth in flood. And what about the last period, the stretch of time we're in? The Earth will be destroyed by earthquakes, is the interpretation some scholars give to the etchy-sketchy remains of the Maya culture. That needs emphasizing, because the last word on Maya timekeeping isn't said yet: almost every year new books on the issue are published.

[Peregrine]

Err, what? Please tell me you're joking, I don't want to waste the time to write a proper reply to all that prophecy garbage if it was just a joke....

[draighox]

The Sun will move to a unique spot in the sky -- and hold still for a while, since it is solstice day.

And what exactly will hold it?

 

The Sun will sit precisely on the heavenly crossroads between the Milky Way and the galactic equinox, forming a perfect alignment with the center of the galaxy.

...

Well: the night time sky is crossed by several mathematical lines. One is the axis of the Milky Way -- the Milky Way, as you may know, being that bright band of stars you can see running across the heavens on a clear night. Another important line is the cosmological ecliptic: the axis along which the constellations travel, the line that defines coordinates in space.

Only from Earth's perspective. The Sun will be on the crossroad only from Earth's perspective. From other perspectives, it will be elsewhere. So, from Earth's perspective the Universe will be destroyed, and from others it won't?

 

The Sun will mount its unique position to form a `gateway' between the Universe and the souls of every living creature on Earth.

A gateway between the Universe and the souls? What are you talking about?

 

Our linear conception of time will crumble, and with it, fear and hatred will vanish.

Time isn't linear.

 

 

 

Just a few things I wanted to point out.

[Icefiddell]

Mayas indeed BAh~!

 

Your all missing the point, the world will end in the year 5 Billion, as was said by the new Doctor Who (played by Christopher Eccleston), i think the words of the time lord himself are more definate that some ancient civilization.

 

I'm afraid i cant tell you how it will happen, we will have to wait to a little longer in the week to find out, but if i run into Billie Piper i'll be sure to ask her :P :D

[Peregrine]

The end-of-the-world theory that most scares me is probably the Maya's theory. Will it be the end of everything? Or will it be the dawning of the age of Aquarius? No one really knows. One thing's for sure, though. December 21st of the year 2012 is the day time as we know it will end.

 

Just like it's been "for sure" countless times in the past that the world would end. But we're still here.

 

So at least claim the Maya's, that ancient civilization that lived in the Mesoamerica's since 2,600 BC. The Maya's had an extremely complicated method of keeping track of time, based on three separate calendars. The most important, most encompassing of these calendars holds the `Long Count': the period from the beginning until the end of time. And on December 21st 2012, the Long Count expires. It will be point zero. Time will be up for the Universe. It will be, literally, the end of days.

 

Of course the thought that maybe they didn't feel like putting more than a few thousand years on their calendar is too unlikely? What makes you so convinced that a modern Maya (if they had survived) wouldn't simply be adding more pages now that they're needed?

ig deal, you might say. Still, there's a couple of very interesting (and disturbing) facts about the Maya calendar's end. Most intriguing, 21-12-2012 is not a day like any other. Up in the sky, an extraordinary and incredibly rare event will take place. The Sun will move to a unique spot in the sky -- and hold still for a while, since it is solstice day. The Sun will sit precisely on the heavenly crossroads between the Milky Way and the galactic equinox, forming a perfect alignment with the center of the galaxy.

 

While that's a pretty description, it doesn't mean anything. Who cares if the sun is perfectly aligned. If you think it's significant as anything more than a minor curiousity, then please explain what effects this alignment will have on the universe and why.

 

Well: the night time sky is crossed by several mathematical lines. One is the axis of the Milky Way -- the Milky Way, as you may know, being that bright band of stars you can see running across the heavens on a clear night. Another important line is the cosmological ecliptic: the axis along which the constellations travel, the line that defines coordinates in space.

 

You can say a lot about the Maya, but you've got to hand it to them: they knew a hell of a lot about stars. For instance, they calculated the exact duration of a year to a thousandth of a decimal point, much more precise than any Greek or enlightened philosopher ever did. Also, they were able to predict every solar and lunar eclipse until this day. And obviously, they knew where the galactic equinox and the exact middle of the Milky Way lay: they called this crossing `the Sacred Tree'.

 

Ok, so they got lucky and had more advanced astronomy than other civilizations at their time. Your point? They clearly aren't omniscient, since they don't seem to be around anymore. If your no limits fallacy on their knowledge was true, why did they get conquered because they didn't have modern weapons?

More disturbing, the Maya's were awfully good at astrology, too. Mysteriously, they predicted in what year their civilization would be overrun by foreigners coming from over the seas. They even predicted the World Wars. So if a Maya tells you the world will end in 2012, you'd better take it seriously.

 

You do realize that astrology is a fraud "science", right? The only thing to be good at is making your predictions so vague that everyone can find truth in it.

 

But please, if you think it's legitimate, find me the exact text of these predictions of the world wars. And "a great war will happen" doesn't count, since that would inevitably be proven true with enough time.

So what awaits us in 2012 basically is an open question. And as with so many open questions, countless doom preachers, semi-prophets and other crackpots pop up to provide an answer. The interpretation you hear most: 2012 will mark the coming of a new, glorious age of wisdom and peace. It will be Age Of Aquarius at last, with a world full of peace, love and understanding.

 

True, that day will probably be an interesting one. Slacker that I am, I'll probably be in the middle of an interesting last-second shopping run.

 

But seriously, "what awaits us" is just another year.

So, New Age philosophers say, December 21st 2012 will be the day on which this inner cosmos is reconnected to the divine outer cosmos. The Sun will mount its unique position to form a `gateway' between the Universe and the souls of every living creature on Earth. Our linear conception of time will crumble, and with it, fear and hatred will vanish. It will be purification at it's very best, when everyone is soaked in cosmic understanding and divine love.

 

*stares in disbelief*

 

You dn't seriously believe this, do you?

 

Besides saying lots of nice sounding stuff, could you please provide an explanation (in physics terms) of just what effect this position of the sun will have? And why an interesting alignment of objects that far apart would have enough of an effect to shatter time?

 

So there it is: on December 20th, you'll kick your dog, yell at your spouse and cheat on cards. But a day later, you'll be calmed down into a peaceful person with nothing but love and understanding to guide you in life. Even though it's mid-winter, it'll be summer of love for all humanity.

 

Oh yay, more vague statements without proof. Would you like to explain just how the sun's position is capable of creating massive psychological effects like this?

 

Just for you, I'll be sure to do a little cheating on the 21st.

The reasoning behind this is actually not that stupid. The Maya's didn't really believed in endings: their conception of time was circular, with every end being the beginning of something new. So, 2012 shouldn't be an exception.

 

Finally you get something right. It'll be nice and circular, the 20th will blend right into the 21st without anyone even noticing. Just like the world doesn't change when we turn over a new calendar page.

Other doomsayers foresee doom and destruction. December 21st will be the day the Earth will be destroyed. Some think it will be because of some nuclear war, some say it will be because it's biblical judgment day. Even others take the ending of the Maya calendar more literally, and claim the Universe will just cease to exist.

 

I guess the concept of "supporting your claims" is too complicated for you?

 

I eagerly await the mechanism by which the sun aligning with some randomly defined point in space will cause the universe to cease to exist.

 

Also, the Maya's had a highly developed philosophy of the cosmos. They saw the cosmos as the true mother of things. Consequently, the Maya's thought the cosmos is all around us, and within us. Every plant, every animal, every man is sheer Cosmos.

 

So they had an interesting religion/philosophy. Your point?

 

There's something to be said in favor of such sinister scenario's, too. The Maya divided their Long Count into five lumps of time, called Great Cycles. And every cycle had a well defined end. The second cycle ended in air, the third in fire, the fourth in flood. And what about the last period, the stretch of time we're in? The Earth will be destroyed by earthquakes, is the interpretation some scholars give to the etchy-sketchy remains of the Maya culture. That needs emphasizing, because the last word on Maya timekeeping isn't said yet: almost every year new books on the issue are published.

 

Interesting. Despite this lack of knowledge and the continuing discoveries, you're completely confident that your interpretation is right. But I suppose you have a reason to consider the method of world-ending in doubt, but not the world-ending itself?

[Stanhead]

Just like it's been "for sure" countless times in the past that the world would end. But we're still here.

And we're very lucky to be. If some natural disaster doesn't wipe us out, we'll probably wipe ourselves out. If we'd decided to use nuclear weapons in the Cold War, we would be dead now...

 

Of course the thought that maybe they didn't feel like putting more than a few thousand years on their calendar is too unlikely? What makes you so convinced that a modern Maya (if they had survived) wouldn't simply be adding more pages now that they're needed?

I don't know. The point is they're not around now, are they?

 

While that's a pretty description, it doesn't mean anything. Who cares if the sun is perfectly aligned. If you think it's significant as anything more than a minor curiousity, then please explain what effects this alignment will have on the universe and why.

The alignment of several suns, planets and solar systems will have a diverse affect on the gravitational balance of our solar system. While scientists cannot find out exactly what will happen during this alignment (because our technology isn't advanced enough at the moment), some of them believe that our solar system will be pulled apart, others that only earth will lose it's orbit. I myself am just hoping nothing at all happens.

 

You do realize that astrology is a fraud "science", right? The only thing to be good at is making your predictions so vague that everyone can find truth in it.

 

But please, if you think it's legitimate, find me the exact text of these predictions of the world wars. And "a great war will happen" doesn't count, since that would inevitably be proven true with enough time.

Mayan writings dwell inside numerous museums, and I'm not getting out of my seat. But I think they predicted both world wars to the year. Their calendar also predicted the exact day their civilization would be wiped out by the Spanish.

 

True, that day will probably be an interesting one. Slacker that I am, I'll probably be in the middle of an interesting last-second shopping run.

I'll probably be in a bunker with a gun. The best opportunity I get, I'm going to arm myself and kill all of my enemies!

 

But seriously, "what awaits us" is just another year.

I don't care what anyone thinks, I know something abnormal will happen in 2012.

 

You dn't seriously believe this, do you?

Not all of it, but these sun worshippers put up a pursuasive argument.

 

Besides saying lots of nice sounding stuff, could you please provide an explanation (in physics terms) of just what effect this position of the sun will have? And why an interesting alignment of objects that far apart would have enough of an effect to shatter time?

I believe Ive answered that question already, somewhere in this gigantic post.

 

Oh yay, more vague statements without proof. Would you like to explain just how the sun's position is capable of creating massive psychological effects like this?

I wasn't saying that this would have any psychological effects. I was saying you'd kick your dog etc, like you usually do, and then the next day, you'd be in a sense of inner peace. OK, what I said then was a load of Grade F Donkey Turd...

 

Finally you get something right. It'll be nice and circular, the 20th will blend right into the 21st without anyone even noticing. Just like the world doesn't change when we turn over a new calendar page.

Yep.

 

I guess the concept of "supporting your claims" is too complicated for you?

I wasn't stating my opinion, I was saying what other people believe will happen. These "doomsday foreseers" being mental patients and 10-year old wannabe astronauts.

 

I eagerly await the mechanism by which the sun aligning with some randomly defined point in space will cause the universe to cease to exist.

It will align with several other suns and solar systems, and their gravitational effect on each other may, or may not, change the orbit of our planet.

 

Interesting. Despite this lack of knowledge and the continuing discoveries, you're completely confident that your interpretation is right. But I suppose you have a reason to consider the method of world-ending in doubt, but not the world-ending itself?

I'm a paranoid sadistic 15 year old, I'll believe what I want... :P

[ThetaOrionis01]

The alignment of several suns, planets and solar systems will have a diverse affect on the gravitational balance of our solar system. While scientists cannot find out exactly what will happen during this alignment (because our technology isn't advanced enough at the moment), some of them believe that our solar system will be pulled apart, others that only earth will lose it's orbit. I myself am just hoping nothing at all happens.

 

[snip]

It will align with several other suns and solar systems, and their gravitational effect on each other may, or may not, change the orbit of our planet.

 

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

errr... right....

 

Newton's law of gravitation

 

Pay particular attention to the 'divided by the square of the distance between them' bit. Distance to the nearest star other than the sun: 4.3 lightyears or 40681141032097.39km.

Any gravitational effect other stars will have on the solar system is negligible due to the vast distances involved.

 

Stuff like the 'axis of the Milky Way' sounds nice and impressive - but which axis were the Mayans referring to? The rotational axis of our spiral galaxy? Or a line drawn haphazardly through the section of the Milky Way visible in the night sky? It's totally meaningless. And what is a 'galactic equinox', precisely? As for 'cosmological ecliptic' - guess where I found this term when doing a google search? Right here. :laugh2: Sound familiar?

ecliptic

n.

 

  1. The intersection plane of the earth's orbit with the celestial sphere, along which the sun appears to move as viewed from the earth.

  2. A great circle inscribed on a terrestrial globe inclined at an approximate angle of 23°27 to the equator and representing the apparent motion of the sun in relation to the earth during a year.

 

 

cosmological

 

adj 1: pertaining to the branch of astronomy dealing with the origin and history and structure and dynamics of the universe; "cosmologic science"; "cosmological redshift"; "cosmogonic theories of the origin of the universe" [syn: cosmologic, cosmogonic, cosmogonical, cosmogenic, cosmogenical] 2: pertaining to the branch of philosophy dealing with the elements and laws and especially the characteristics of the universe such as space and time and causality; "cosmologic philosophy"; "a cosmological argument is an argument that the universe demands the admission of an adequate external cause which is God"

 

Whoever wrote this laughable piece Stanhead referred to obviously knows far less about astronomy and physics than the ancient Mayans did...

 

Oh, and as for Yellowstone... the average time between eruptions of the caldera is not 50,000 years, but in the region of 600,000 years, and the last one was around 630,000 years ago.

 

 

Far out, man :laugh2: