How dangerous is North Korea now?

[Maharg67]

North Korea has often played a game of harsh rhetoric, has threatened, has carried out small aggression actions but now it appears to be going further than it has done since the cease fire was signed.

 

The Korean War was never officially ended and perhaps North Korea wishes to make itself safer by forcing there to be an official end of the war and a signing of a treaty that would officially recognize its existence and right to exist as an independent nation-state.

 

Or perhaps North Korea really has lost its way and is about to really launch into a war that it can not possibly win.

 

What do you think? Is it just rhetoric and mass media beat up or is there real reason for concern, this concern being increased by North Korea possibly having at least one nuclear weapon in hiding? Could a North Korean missile really threaten Japan or Guam?

[Vagrant0]

You know that situation where you've been working for a bad boss in a job for several years to where you can't leave, but also prefer not to deal with that ass in any lengthy discussion. You know that day when that boss decides to retire and leave the company to their son who may still know some of the business, but who ends up being an even bigger ass just because they aren't as experienced and now feel the need to make a show of power even in ways that ultimately undermine the business...

 

That's North Korea.

[Ahvaren]

I've been reading so many opinions on this lately. I'll present a few of them that I've heard for the sake of discussion... but I'm not going to defend/endorse any of them. This is just honestly the general opinions I've read as people explored the issue. I have NO other knowledge about the issue and haven't formulated my own opinions yet.

 

 

1) Kim Jong-un is power-playing for his generals, who are none to pleased with him. He thinks he can drum up popular support among his army by creating a crisis, even if it's a fabricated crisis. We're just feeling the backlash.

 

and

 

2) This was originally just supposed to be a repeat of "North Korea starts to get a little rowdy, China/US/UN send food to shut them up", but this time no food was sent to shut them up, so Kim is trying to escalate things in an effort to get the food aid he was aiming for.

 

seem to be the most popular on the sites I frequent. There's also, of course

 

3) Where they actually are going to try to do something. In this case, North Korea has gone completely insane, because of

 

a) Their military power. Their army, while impressive in numbers, is starving and stunted from the conditions in NK. Their vehicles and other equipment, while numerable, are probably still the same 50s stuff they fought the Korean War with. Every other nation, including South Korea, are eons ahead of them in equipment. They lack the fuel to fly most of their planes.

 

b) Even if they've happened to get nukes, despite the unlikeliness of that (the fact that they shouldn't even have enough nuclear material yet for one), there's the logistics of trying to transport the nuke. Their equipment is far from state of the art. If they manage to successfully transport a nuke somewhere and detonate it (on their first try, with basically no testing, because they can't spare the material for testing) they would cease to exist as a nation. The military (and possibly nuclear) response would be tremendous.

 

So if NK tries something, they're effectively running a suicide mission. Every single person involved in getting that nuke off has to be willing to die, because even if they survive the initial backlash, they will be hunted down.

 

In terms of the damage they could do, if they decided to run a suicide mission:

 

They could, theoretically, nuke a variety of places. Obviously, this will cause damage. Aside from the initial loss in lives, there will be nuclear fallout over the area. That is, of course, if they have the missiles and material to have a nuke. They do, however, have lots of artillery pointed at South Korea's capital. That's probably the biggest concern (if they do something, which is unlikely). They could destroy a large part of Northern Seoul and kill quite a few people before SK and the US had a chance to take out their artillery. The entirety of Seoul would not be at threat (unless fire/damage from Northern Seoul got out of hand). The economic damage to SK would be pretty astronomical.

 

China!

 

China is normally the one to tell NK to behave when they start up this stuff. Apparently, NK isn't listening to China at the moment. I haven't read a single way China could benefit from NK doing something-- the second NK starts something, there will be a substantial number of starving North Korean refugees fleeing over the border to China. That's why you're seeing them move their forces to the border of NK. No one wants NK's refugees. A war would also mean the US would get involved (because the US is allied with SK and has already increased their presence in the area because of NK's actions) and China doesn't like that either, not on their doorstep.

 

China is allied with NK. However, it doesn't look like they'll step in if NK does anything. They might be amassing their troops at the border, but a war with the US is the last thing China wants. If NK pulls something and ends up going to war with the SK and the US, China is unlikely to get involved, treaties or not.

 

 

So... what do you all think?

[Ironman5000]

You know that situation where you've been working for a bad boss in a job for several years to where you can't leave, but also prefer not to deal with that ass in any lengthy discussion. You know that day when that boss decides to retire and leave the company to their son who may still know some of the business, but who ends up being an even bigger ass just because they aren't as experienced and now feel the need to make a show of power even in ways that ultimately undermine the business...

 

That's North Korea.

My thought exactly, this was inevitable and i'm actually surprised it took so long for kim jong un to start parading his dad's toys.

 

It does concern me that NK is so segregated from the world that we have no idea what they plan or how they will do it, the obvious theory is to strike SK but I remember hearing that they could choose to attack the US base in the south of Japan which I could see making an all-out war.

[MistTiger]

To All: I will throw in my two cents.

 

1. In the late 90s, NK was bought off by the US to stop their nuclear sabre rattling. Sound familiar. Maybe they hope that the rest of the world will give them food and money to placate their newest temper tantrum.

2. Their missiles will not get very high during the slow boost phase before they are shot down. The only country NK is going to nuke is itself.

3. There are these cool little weapons the US has called thermobaric and clusterbomb weapons. you can use them to easily wipe out caves and kill large numbers of massed troops on battlefields. There will not be a lot of mouths to feed in NK when those babies start falling form skies that they cannot defend.

4. Don't be surprised when the PRC comes south and wipes out NK. the former NK would be a great gift to SK to start trade negotiations and closer ties. With the current actions of NK cooling their relations with the PRC, a neighboring SK trading partner is looking a lot better that an out of control NK buffer. Plus the lack of tensions on the Korean peninsula would no doubt be used to marginalize US military presence in the Northern Asian Region. Just my opinion. Cheers!!!! V/R MistTiger

[HeyYou]

What N. Korea really wants is a peace treaty, and billions in foreign aid. Since the sabre-rattling and rhetoric has worked so well in the past...... they are again taking that route. After all, Daddy, and Granddad used it to great effect. Trouble is, folks are bored with it. No one is really paying all that much attention, and the world isn't lining up to give them whatever they want, in the forlorn hope that they will suspend their nuclear program, again. (Note: I say "suspend", as opposed to "terminate", as that is all that ever happens. They make some noise, get what they want, are good for a while, decide they want some more, and start the process all over again.)

 

So, at this point, we have a few choices.

 

1. Give in to their demands, go to the negotiating table, hammer out an agreement. N. Korea is good for a couple months/years, then, right back to the same old thing.

 

2. We attack first. World opinion then sees the US as the aggressor, and we are the bad guys. Seoul gets soundly trounced with artillery fire from the north. Hundreds of thousands die. N. Korea ceases to exist as an independent nation, when they are utterly overwhelmed by american/s. korean military.

 

3. S. Korea attacks first. World opinion would probably lean toward them being justified, as they are the ones in direct proximity, and most likely to suffer from any potential nuclear attack. Seoul gets soundly trounced by the norths artillery. N. Korea ceases to exist as an independent nation, when they are utterly overwhelmed by american and south korean military.

 

4. N. Korea attacks first, or does something stupid to set off the war. Seoul is soundly trounced by n. korean alrtillery.... etc. etc. etc.

 

5. China steps in, and deals with kim in whatever fashion they deem fit. No war involving the US, or N. Korea. N. Korea may survive as an independent nation, but, in name only. In reality, they will just be a protectorate of China.

 

We can't do enough damage fast enough to the north's artillery to spare Seoul, and probably other cities in easy range.... from being basically pounded to powder. I believe this is one of the major reasons we haven't taken military action, even on a limited scale, as yet.

 

As I see it, in three of the five possible scenarios, loss of life is going to be tremendous. N. Korea will do as much damage as they can, as fast as they can, as they are more than aware that they only have the resources to prosecute a war for a little more than a week. Then they will be out of fuel for their various vehicles. (including air power) They still have something to the tune of 700,000 soldiers though..... and they can make a heck of a mess before they are dealt with.

 

If we cave, all we will be doing is postponing the inevitable.

 

Having China and/or Russia deal with N. Korea would be the best possible outcome for all conerned. Whether they will step up and DO something though, remains to be seen.

 

Edit: Or....... LAUNCH a missile at Pyongyang. Give little kimmie a call, and let him know that death is on its way. We can destroy the missile before it hits, but, ONLY if you UNCONDITIONALLY SURRENDER RIGHT NOW! You have 20 minutes before impact. What's it gonna be little man?

Edited April 6, 2013 by HeyYou

[rizon72]

Any country is dangerous, doesn't matter how big or small. At any given time the world is sitting on a power keg waiting for a spark. 100 years ago, that spark was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which provided the spark for World War I.

 

Events can also threaten to spiral out of control of a leader. Just because they are a dictator, President, Prime Minister, etc, means they have total control over all events of their country. The problem is most people have no idea its out of control until its too late.

[MistTiger]

What N. Korea really wants is a peace treaty, and billions in foreign aid. Since the sabre-rattling and rhetoric has worked so well in the past...... they are again taking that route. After all, Daddy, and Granddad used it to great effect. Trouble is, folks are bored with it. No one is really paying all that much attention, and the world isn't lining up to give them whatever they want, in the forlorn hope that they will suspend their nuclear program, again. (Note: I say "suspend", as opposed to "terminate", as that is all that ever happens. They make some noise, get what they want, are good for a while, decide they want some more, and start the process all over again.)

 

So, at this point, we have a few choices.

 

1. Give in to their demands, go to the negotiating table, hammer out an agreement. N. Korea is good for a couple months/years, then, right back to the same old thing.

 

2. We attack first. World opinion then sees the US as the aggressor, and we are the bad guys. Seoul gets soundly trounced with artillery fire from the north. Hundreds of thousands die. N. Korea ceases to exist as an independent nation, when they are utterly overwhelmed by american/s. korean military.

 

3. S. Korea attacks first. World opinion would probably lean toward them being justified, as they are the ones in direct proximity, and most likely to suffer from any potential nuclear attack. Seoul gets soundly trounced by the norths artillery. N. Korea ceases to exist as an independent nation, when they are utterly overwhelmed by american and south korean military.

 

4. N. Korea attacks first, or does something stupid to set off the war. Seoul is soundly trounced by n. korean alrtillery.... etc. etc. etc.

 

5. China steps in, and deals with kim in whatever fashion they deem fit. No war involving the US, or N. Korea. N. Korea may survive as an independent nation, but, in name only. In reality, they will just be a protectorate of China.

 

We can't do enough damage fast enough to the north's artillery to spare Seoul, and probably other cities in easy range.... from being basically pounded to powder. I believe this is one of the major reasons we haven't taken military action, even on a limited scale, as yet.

 

As I see it, in three of the five possible scenarios, loss of life is going to be tremendous. N. Korea will do as much damage as they can, as fast as they can, as they are more than aware that they only have the resources to prosecute a war for a little more than a week. Then they will be out of fuel for their various vehicles. (including air power) They still have something to the tune of 700,000 soldiers though..... and they can make a heck of a mess before they are dealt with.

 

If we cave, all we will be doing is postponing the inevitable.

 

Having China and/or Russia deal with N. Korea would be the best possible outcome for all conerned. Whether they will step up and DO something though, remains to be seen.

 

Edit: Or....... LAUNCH a missile at Pyongyang. Give little kimmie a call, and let him know that death is on its way. We can destroy the missile before it hits, but, ONLY if you UNCONDITIONALLY SURRENDER RIGHT NOW! You have 20 minutes before impact. What's it gonna be little man?

HeyYou, I seriously doubt that the SK army is going to stand by and let the NK army pummel anyone with massed artillery. the SK have about 60% of the number of heavy artillery capability of NK but their targeting and counterbattery fire is going to be devastating to the much inferior aimed NK artillery. As the Iraqis found out in GW, the US can pretty much wipe out any prepared positions. Also, Thermobaric weapons are designed specifically to kill everything inside tunnels and prepared positions. Will there be a great loss of life in Seoul? Yes. It is doubtful that the aging NK armor will even penetrate into SK and the NK capture of Seoul scenarios collapsed by the late 90s. So, In your scenario, NK unleashes a firestorm of artillery and rockets at the south which the SK retaliates from their prepared positions. The fighting will rapidly devolved into vicious artillery duels until both sides exhaust their ammunition stores. At the same time, SK and US airpower starts the systematic destruction of every LOC and LOS for the NK military. All NK military C² centers are destroyed and the NK has no where to maneuver as all choke points such as bridges and rail intersections will be destroyed. SK artillery units will resupply as they will not have to worry about air attack or anything from NK other than Spec ops forces. the NK will be pinned down by SK and US airpower and will be unable to resupply. The old days of long lines of people hauling supplies south to the NK army will come to a swift halt with the first application of artillery and airborne clusterbomb units. Or mines, nothing like sowing a half million mines across southern NK. And if the US is feeling nasty, the application of several environmentally friendly neutron bombs will create instant deserts in areas of NK that piss us off. Ever wonder why the Iraqi army never put up much of a fight during GW2. PGM. Look it up. For relatively little cost compared to other PGMs, every US dumb bomb can now be a GPS guided JADAM. The paralyzed NK army will die in place.

 

If I were the commander in SK, I would sow mines and clusterbombs across the entire southern area of NK at the first round of artillery heading south. Last time I checked, NK artillery needed live people to fire it. They can't shoot when they're dead.

 

The only option NK will have at this point is to beg for PRC intervention. Hey, it saved them the last time, and they are definitely creatures of habit.

 

You bring up a lot of good points. But, the NK threat has steadily diminished over the years from credible military to an attempt at extortion through the artillery terror weapon.

 

But, As always Just my opinion. Cheers!!! V/R MistTiger

[Vagrant0]

You bring up a lot of good points. But, the NK threat has steadily diminished over the years from credible military to an attempt at extortion through the artillery terror weapon.

 

The ultimate problem however is that when all is said and done, it's unlikely that anyone will want to clean up the remnants of what would be left of NK should they actually do anything. Unlike the Middle East, there isn't anything in NK that anyone could really care about to try and lift the country through what is bound to be a very difficult regime change. Sure, 70% (or more) of their military really only enlisted because it meant an easy (if however strict and fanatical) and well-paying job, but a determined, brainwashed population will usually respond to any sort of attack with a battle of attrition. I can see a good number of special interest groups protesting already.

[MistTiger]

 

You bring up a lot of good points. But, the NK threat has steadily diminished over the years from credible military to an attempt at extortion through the artillery terror weapon.

 

The ultimate problem however is that when all is said and done, it's unlikely that anyone will want to clean up the remnants of what would be left of NK should they actually do anything. Unlike the Middle East, there isn't anything in NK that anyone could really care about to try and lift the country through what is bound to be a very difficult regime change. Sure, 70% (or more) of their military really only enlisted because it meant an easy (if however strict and fanatical) and well-paying job, but a determined, brainwashed population will usually respond to any sort of attack with a battle of attrition. I can see a good number of special interest groups protesting already.

Vagrant0, You are right. Most people fail to realize that when you go to war. You really fight two wars. The actual war and then the war after the war. Just as the US learned this painful lesson after GW2, History is plain that anti-allied factions in Germany and Japan did not just quit and go home after their countries were conquered. They continued to actively resist and impede allied efforts in their countries. The only thing different post WW2 was the US ability to control the press releases that its citizens saw. The sad fact is that the NK population will have to be taken care of while their country is rebuilt and they will not all welcome the victors with open arms. SK will have a long hard road to incorporate NK. NK does seem to have a marked lack of resources valuable to anyone that would spur other countries into aiding them. The task will fall to the victors. Just my opinion. Cheers!!!! V/R MistTiger