How dangerous is North Korea now?

[Thor.]

The more and more i read about North Korea i find its kind of unlikely they will strike anytime soon???. China gave some harsh words to North Korea for War mongering for self gain.

 

and the news keeps rolling in, everyday its about North Korea

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/north-korea-dashboard/

[Vindekarr]

All this talk of China coming in on NK's side is just misinformed. China has absolutely nothing to gain by supporting NK; NK doesn't have a strong economy, it's a common enemy between most of China's favorite trading partners, and right now it's creating a potential conflict on China's doorstep-the Chinese government has in recent days made some very blunt counter-threats to NK-if there's anyone that's going to start something, it's going to be China. They've made it abundantly clear they've had enough of NK's posturing on their doorstep.

 

The other way to look at it is this; China has just signed a deal with Australia to allow our currency to be directly exchanged with theirs; if China steps in on NK's side against America, then Australia is going to quite obvious weigh in on the US side, being well within the line of fire, and having several major US bases on their soil. Why would you host talks with a country's leadership, affirm far stronger economic ties, and discuss a free trade agreement with a country you're going to end up in an armed conflict with? China, as a nation, is very unlikely to get involved at all, they're not like that, they're far more likely to simply wait it out and then make the best of the aftermath.

 

It's also worth noting that China has a growing relationship with SK; SK and China have increasingly strong economic ties, and a lot of Korean companies export heavily into China-most Chinese cars have Korean tyres for example; China has a LOT to gain by coming down on SK's side; they're the common enemy of virtually everyone China is trying to make friends with, and they have a huge amount to gain by helping NK become the former NK.

 

Final footnote; Sinophobia is a completely outdated notion dating back to the cold war and Red Terror; the idea that China is some evil juggernaut, just waiting for the right opportunity to nuke our western world into oblivion is completely ridiculous and based on ignorance; if China wanted to attack the US, they damn well could, but they wouldn't. If you have a look at Chinese culture; China has always been very insular, for the most part it just likes to stay to itself. It's a very capitalist country, and it's financial gain that is it's biggest national target right now, with 50% growth in some areas. If China was to join in a war on North Korea's behalf against the US, China would lose 20 years of diplomatic work, and every trade partner it has. Yes, it's military power is incredible, but it's whole different culture, and it tends to behave very differently to Western superpowers, it's a lot more insular, and a lot more prone to waiting and watching. I doubt China will get involved in the situation at all.

[Thor.]

Don't forget to mention that moment when anonymous hacked NK.

 

Just check it out on youtube

Edited April 9, 2013 by Thor.

[Vindekarr]

With all the kerfuffle going on around the Korean peninsula right now, the Americans have been a little lazy about rattling their own high tech sabre, but today they did just that, except it was no so much a sabre they rattled, but a lightsabre. The Americans deployed a ship armed not with guns N missiles, but a fully autonomous, high-power long range directed energy laser cannon, capable of vaporising it's way through ship armour, tanks, missiles and aircraft over a tremendous range. If I were Kim Jong, I'd back down right now; it's a single tiny yield nuke strapped to a hideously unreliable short range missile; facing it off is a Japan, which is locked N loaded with numerous Patriot anti-missile defenses, the USS Ponce with her FEL cannon, South Korea down below with god knows what, and China north of them and pissed off as well.

 

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/technology/2013/04/09/14/00/us-unveils-deadly-laser-cannon

Edited April 9, 2013 by Vindekarr

[Thor.]

Uh ohh looks like the threats are getting worse and worse, my thoughts they won't strike anytime soon, may have been to soon. If they do strike they will face severe consequences by not having country for one.

 

If you have nukes and you use one, i heard somewhere you will forfeit you're county in general. Everything is up for grabs then, I could be wrong. Especially when North Korea isn't at war just with South Korea, Its against the world in general, Sense nukes are a threat.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/04/09/north-korea-warning-evacuation-tensions.html

the article also mentioned its unlikely they will strike in general, but with such threats, i don't know.

Edited April 10, 2013 by Thor.

[Beriallord]

Vinderkarr I got no idea why you think China is pissed with North Korea? Have you wondered even for a minute that North Korea is just a puppet of China? North Korea gets almost all its food, oil, and commodities from China, and they would be absolutely retarded if they bite the hand that feeds them, and I don't think they are that stupid.

If China was really as pissed as you claim about the situation, then they would have cut off North Korea quite a while ago.

It seems clear to me that China has an invested interest in the Korean Peninula not becomming a unified country. They don't want a country as prominant as South Korea bordering them due to clear political and economic differences. For one, workers are actually paid fair, livable wages in South Korea. A country like that on their border could destabilize their own political/economic system which is far different from South Korea. Yes, a unified Korea would definitely be a threat to China, not militarily but economically/politically.

One thing I can guarantee America will NOT do is do a preemptive attack on North Korea, under any circumstances, because nuclear weapons are involved. Obama doesn't have the balls to do it. They got away with shelling an island and the USA didn't do jack about it. Not just that, but North Korea has thousands of artillery pieces aimed at Seoul. And no missile defense system in the world can intercept artillery shells, which can also be loaded with nuclear warheads. In reality the North Korea situation is a stalemate, meaning there will be no war solution that doesn't involve millions getting killed.

Edited April 10, 2013 by Beriallord

[Maharg67]

 

As somebody who has studied various state communist regimes, especially of Asia and Russia, in hardline periods of heavy ideological influence and rigid hierarchical control, one major problem with the present situation is a problem that has haunted many such regimes.

 

In the Soviet Union successful peasant farmers were robbed off all of their stock including their seed stock for future harvests. These farms were the major provider of food for the nation. What followed was the Great Famine of the USSR.

 

In China the Great Leap Forward led to many communes trying to work with iron/steel on an amateur basis. The results were a truly massive wastage of metal and other valuable resources with no real gains at all.

 

I could give many such examples and not just for Maoist China and Stalinist Russia.

 

The fear is that the leadership of North Korea is unable to see what is really going on, has become paranoid and delusional, has begun to believe too much in its own rhetoric, and that this will form the real basis for any decisions it makes in future.

 

It is too easy for people, not inside such regimes, to focus on rational arguments, on what one might call common sense, and to project them onto a very different kind of political regime as North Korea is. Many experts outside of North Korea do understand this which is why there is deep concern, internationally, about what is happening with North Korea. Even those who generally say there is nothing to be concerned about also state that North Korea should be watched carefully anyway 'just in case'.

 

PS: I can not stress enough just how insane such regimes can behave.

[MistTiger]

Vinderkarr I got no idea why you think China is pissed with North Korea? Have you wondered even for a minute that North Korea is just a puppet of China? North Korea gets almost all its food, oil, and commodities from China, and they would be absolutely retarded if they bite the hand that feeds them, and I don't think they are that stupid.

 

If China was really as pissed as you claim about the situation, then they would have cut off North Korea quite a while ago.

 

It seems clear to me that China has an invested interest in the Korean Peninula not becomming a unified country. They don't want a country as prominant as South Korea bordering them due to clear political and economic differences. For one, workers are actually paid fair, livable wages in South Korea. A country like that on their border could destabilize their own political/economic system which is far different from South Korea. Yes, a unified Korea would definitely be a threat to China, not militarily but economically/politically.

 

One thing I can guarantee America will NOT do is do a preemptive attack on North Korea, under any circumstances, because nuclear weapons are involved. Obama doesn't have the balls to do it. They got away with shelling an island and the USA didn't do jack about it. Not just that, but North Korea has thousands of artillery pieces aimed at Seoul. And no missile defense system in the world can intercept artillery shells, which can also be loaded with nuclear warheads. In reality the North Korea situation is a stalemate, meaning there will be no war solution that doesn't involve millions getting killed.

 

I thought I was going to get out of this and watch the fun, but I keep getting pulled back in. This thread is like quicksand.

 

Maharg67 quote: The fear is that the leadership of North Korea is unable to see what is really going on, has become paranoid and delusional, has begun to believe too much in its own rhetoric, and that this will form the real basis for any decisions it makes in future.

 

This is very true. It's called "Drinking your own cool-aid" among the masses and "groupthink" among those who consider themselves intellectuals. It hard to be realistic when you believe your own delusions.

 

BerialLord, Don't know real where to start. It's history time,

 

Once upon a time, A country called the US decided to support and promote a man named Noriega in a small central American country called Panama. After a time, Noriega decided that he would do things the way he wanted and started thumbing his nose at the directions of his puppet master the US. The US got tired of the antics of their puppet Noriega and he went away. Wow, sound familiar.

 

1. The PRC is the latest incarnation of a country that has existed in various forms for thousands of years. They are strategic thinkers. The leaders of the PRC have weighed for years the benefits of a NK buffer vs. closer relations with SK and the economic benefits resulting. They will show no loyalty to NK if they decide that a united Korea on their border is a greater benefit. In a world where communications link people in the blink of an eye and weapons can move the entire world in less than a day, the idea of a physical buffer is becoming less and less important. 2500 PGM cruise missiles will speak a lot louder than 25000 ground troops and be a lot more effective. It is true that ultimately, you need to occupy an area with ground troops. But its a lot easier to walk over the wreckage than to fight through it. Ever wonder where all those Iraqi troops in GW2 went to before the US moved north? Where were the huge battles predicted? 17000 PGMs. Think about the importance of a physical buffer in today's world. Plus, one cannot discount the added benefit that all those US troops will really have a greatly reduced reason to be in the region. the PRC will also be considering their ability to lessen the influence of the US in the region by removing the reason that they are primarily there. Would US citizens, in the grip of economic crisis, support to large amount of men and resources in the north Asian region without a NK? Think about that. The PRC could kill two birds with one stone by eliminating a trouble makeing NK.

 

2. NK is a puppet of the PRC. Even more so than Panama was of the US. Panama just had much longer strings and more freedom of movement than NK does. The PRC will weigh NK actions and decide when they reign in their puppet. Regime change in NK is not that difficult and it would be spun in a way to keep the NK in line. A closed society is very easy to manipulate. The PRC doesn't have to cut of the NK, they will just change the head on the puppet.

 

3. I am thoroughly amazed at how people are hung up on the now primitive artillery capabilities that the NK possesses. The Paul Donner bridge outside of Hanoi was attacked for years and stood solid despite large attacks from US aircraft until one day when a handful of F-4s used laser guided bombs and dropped the bridge in a single strike. Unguided weapons are now like shooting a shotgun in a dark room. History shown us again and again, that precision is much more important than numbers. Look at the effectiveness of the allied bombing campaign against Germany in WW2. The strategic bombing survey proved it was not decisive in winning the war against Germany. Germany's highest levels of production were just prior to its surrender. It is interesting reading. SK has been preparing for this for years. They are not some cardboard target that will absorb whatever is thrown at them. The important areas of the city are hardened. We need to realize that 100 or 1000 dead are not huge figures. look at some of the floods in China where tens of thousands are killed. Is the survival of a country worth 1 million dead? That is up to the country. If the survival of the US is at stake, will we wipe out the world to preserve ourselves. We have a large arsenal of nuclear weapons for just that purpose. It all comes down to will of the leaders and the citizens. Think about it. SK has to decide if the price they pay in Seoul is worth their capitulation to NK demands or even their surrender. No one else gets to play. Besides, the SK could just ask the US to stand aside and take care of the problem themselves. They are more than a match for NK just by themselves. Is the PRC willing to enter a war on the NK side and bring in the US? Is the Korea problem even worth bring nuclear weapons into it?

 

4. Now, according to plowshare.org, a nuclear weapons watchdog, the NK has less than 10 nuclear weapons. Just how have they went from a primitive nuclear power into a country capable of firing nuclear artillery rounds? Come on, can the NK even mount one of their crude nuclear weapons onto a missile.

 

BerialLord, the key to any debate is good research. What are your sources that NK has missile or artillery capable nuclear weapons? A good researcher has to back up their statements with sources. We have went from Nk raining 1000s of artillery rounds onto Seoul to NK firing nuclear artillery at Seoul. That is wild and unfounded at this point. I politely ask that you please prove your statement. If you can't, its no big deal. I seek the truth, even in debate.

 

A nuclear weapon is no good if you cannot deliver it to those who aggravate you. It is a hollow threat. A discussion of nuclear capability has to include the means to put it where you want. A missile capable of reaching the US from NK is pretty pointless if its payload capability is a tennis ball. We tend to forget this in the hysteria of the knowledge that someone has a better mousetrap. Furthermore, any exchange will include the total annihilation of any NK nuclear capability as a high priority. Frankly, I would be a lot more concerned about NK using dirty bombs as a final retaliatory action than them capping off a true nuclear weapon.

 

As for their artillery threat, Sure, they are going to kill some people, but that is what war is really all about. The NK puppet will not act unless the PRC puppet master agrees. Unless, of course, they are insane. In that scenario, the PRC will have to decide if their actions are justified and respond in the best interests of the PRC. It's only logical.

 

There is one final scenario that no one is discussing. If the NK attacks, Why would the PRC not just move 20 miles into Nk and take that area as a buffer zone. Wow!!! Problem solved with troublesome, disobedient puppet and they still have a buffer from SK. Kill or displace all NK citizens from the 20 mile wide BZ and everything is well with the world.

 

The PRC, SK, and the US, all have a lot of options in this shadow play. The NK, on the other hand, is painting themselves into a corner with their increasingly wild rhetoric. The NK does not have a lot of options if SK and the US call their bluff. The SK know they are still at war, they have been at war since 1950. This is not news to them. The rest of the world seems to think that there is no war going on, but they are mistaken. How wide this war becomes depends on the PRC. If they stay out, it will be localized. If they come in, it will get interesting. History shows us that the NK would not even exist today if the PRC had not intervened. The question is not in how dangerous Nk is, as they have proven that they are a rabid dog. It is how much the PRC will allow NK to do before they discipline their puppet. Control of a puppet is a direct reflection on the abilities of the puppet master. An unruly and uncontrollable puppet makes the puppet master look weak and unskilled. Remember Panama. Think about it.

 

Just my opinion. Cheers!!!! V/R MistTiger

[HeyYou]

NK Artillery might be crude by todays standards, but, they can still make up in quantity, what they lack in quality. When you have 8000 tubes, it doesn't matter if 90% of your shots miss..... you are still going to do MASSIVE amounts of damage.

 

That said, You are indeed correct, it's all about "acceptable losses"....... When N. Korea pushes to the point where S. Korea is willing to accept taking a bit of a beating, just to shut him up..... THEY will fire the first shot.

[Thor.]

More news about North Korea and the possible pending missile test...

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/04/10/north-korea-missile-launch-war-tensions.html