Russia and the Ukraine

[Harbringe]

This is something i did not know , apparently large swathes of eastern Ukraine and the Crimea used to be part of Russia proper and had only become part of Ukraine at the behest of Krushchev ( himself a Ukrainian) during the 1950's. Alexander Solzhenitsyn once said that this was the dumbest thing a government had ever done to the Russian people and if he could talk from the grave betcha we would be hearing laughter.

 

@ Beriallord , excellent analysis , very astute

[JimboUK]

As predicted the E.U is going to sit on its hands http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/ukraine-crisis-us-europe-putin-crimea with London rather embarrassingly showing its hand to the world. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/uk-seeks-russia-harm-city-london-document

[HeyYou]

EU gets a lot of its various heating fuels from Russia. Trade sanctions would cause prices to go thru the roof. No big surprise they aren't in a hurry to do that.

[Maharg67]

People are looking at this from a Western point of view but the main players here are not Westerners. Do not forget that even such countries as Germany, France and Great Britain have had hard histories with Russia but the former Warsaw Pact nations have had a much harder history with Russia. These influences, forces, do not vanish over night though they may become concealed.

 

I suspect that many in this discussion forget history and its on going influences on the conflict; Russia respects nothing but force and needs to be bluffed out of Ukraine just as it was bluffed out of sending missiles to Cuba back in the 1960s. Many former Warsaw Pact nations fear, hate, Russia and they could intervene in the war even if officially NATO does not. These countries belong to NATO but old hatreds die hard and memories are still strong of the former Russian oppressive occupation of these same countries; I doubt that, if things come to the crunch, that NATO would be able to stop these countries sending forces into Ukraine.

 

There is FEAR! Fear that Russia is slowly expanding, is trying to take back Eastern Europe and threaten Western Europe as it once was might not be logical but who said fear is logical. Fear may override concerns such as gas supply and have a devastating backlash against Russia in future if Russia is not forced to stake a step back from what it is now doing.

 

The USA may have no option to intervene if matters continue to go badly and Putin becomes even more ambitious than he is now. Remember that Putin is former KGB and is of the old school; he is also very nationalistic and wants Russia to be both a bigger power again and to prove itself loudly to the world has very strong it is.

 

While general economics, and politics, are important influences on humanity so are deeper darker aspects of the human psyche.

 

PS: I have studied the politics and histories of the Balkans, Russia etc. including social histories, national psyche and such. They used to call the Balkans the dark underbelly of Europe because it was seen as a tinderbox always ready to explode into war; it did help lead to World War One that took many people by surprise.

 

Also PS: I grew up in a time when fear of Russian Invasion of Europe was a constant factor in the lives of very many people. With a graying population, with aged political leaders in control, how long will it be before the old nightmares return and things like logic go out the window?

 

God help us all if this situation is not resolved quickly, fairly and peacefully.

[Thor.]

Here is a interesting twist in development, if you have access to real time news.

 

http://world.time.com/2014/02/26/u-s-1-billion-ukraine-loan-guarantee/

 

http://rt.com/business/aid-ukraine-us-eu-915/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

 

The UK and the Usa is giving 1 billion each to the Ukraine Government..

This might have consequences for the US economy, sense they are already broke to begin with. Which in turn will effect the global economy.

Edited March 5, 2014 by Thor.

[JimboUK]

In the scheme of things a billion dollars is small change, the U.S won't even notice it, which is good as they'll be losing that money because the IMF will cripple Ukraine and drive it into the waiting arms of the Russians.

[Harbringe]

Well this is interesting , makes you wonder what this revolution really is all about. This is a leaked conversation between the Estonian FM and Catherine Ashton of the EU , this is before Yanukovich fled the Ukraine . It has been officially confirmed by the Estonian Government as being legit . This wasn't a revolution it was a violent overthrow of a government against a backdrop of legitimate protests .

 

 

There is a film based on events that happened in Venezuela in 2002 called "The Revolution will not be Televised" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id--ZFtjR5c that people ought to take the time to watch , it shows how Revolutions can be manufactured and if you think about what we have been seeing in the last few years when it comes to these revolutions and attempted revolutions the patterns are eerily similar. It really is simple , protests begin , position snipers and shoot people on both sides and and let chaos take care of the rest and voila you got a revolution or a civil war and use that as a means to seize power.

 

Last fall before any protests had begun in the Ukraine Sen John McCain gave a speech in Arizona where he let it slip that the US had invested over 5 billion dollars since the Orange Revolution (1990's) to see a government come to power in the Ukraine that would be favorable to our (US) interests and even before this latest leaked telephone conversation we had the Victoria Nuland (US Asst Sec of European Affairs) leaked conversation about how they (US) was in play and who they wanted as the next PM of the Ukraine and if the Europeans didn't like it they could go ph#%@ themselves.

 

Simple truth is its about power and we got people on our side who are willing to risk war in pursuit of that power , we got people working for war.

 

[RGMage2]

I came across an article on CBCnews that I think sums it all up fairly accurately

The Ukraine crisis through the whimsy of international law

 

The only thing I would have added to it is that if this had been an American operation it would not have been bloodless. The first thing they would have done would be bomb the radar and air defence installations and then they would have neutralized the Ukrainian air force. And they wouldn’t be surrounding bases and demanding surrender, they would have flattened them with Apache Gunships and A10 Worthogs.

 

The Russian military has so far shown remarkable discipline and restraint, though for the Ukrainians who are not pro Russia I am sure it is all very terrifying. I can only hope that this will be worked out in a way that will ensure the safety, wellbeing, and political aspirations of all the people of Ukraine.

[Harbringe]

@ RGMage2 . Wow i had thought about using that article in my previous post but decided against it as it would have required another paragraph and was just too lazy to bother , but it really does sum up what the nature of international law is in our world these days , " Do as I say don't do as I do"

 

Thing is nations around the world are waking up to this and have started pushing back.

[rizon72]

Personally its too early to call this 'revolution' bloodless. Its a pressure cooker and the pressure is still there waiting to be released.