Gunboat Diplomacy?

[HeyYou]

 

 

 

 

When East and West Germany were reunified they paid they paid the tab for bringing eastern Germany up to speed with the west.. South Korea has the financial wherewithal to pay for the North's rehabilitation. It's their country so it should be their responsibility when it comes time. Providing of course there is a country left to rehabilitate. If there is a a one country solution it should include the demilitarization of the Yalu River area and an extreme draw down of US troops currently stationed in Korea. That should calm China's apprehensions of being encircled by western allies.

But you just know that our government will show their evil grin, wring their hands in anticipation, and build a base within spittin' distance of the new border....... We seem to revel in our stupidity. :D

 

I do not see why our bases in Japan and the Philippines are not sufficient for the job. Leave a small trip wire force in southern Korea that can delay until the cavalry arrives in the event of some Sino-Korean dispute.

 

Of course. But then, you are actually a reasonable human being. (or, a VERY good AI.....) Our government.... well..... isn't...... I don't think 'reasonable' falls anywhere into their definition, unless immediately preceded by "Un"......

 

There has to be a resolution to the Korea Problem before Kim can get an nuclear capable ICBM . We are notoriously bad assassins so that option is not promising. The recent noises from China are encouraging , one can hope but I doubt that they are going to have a real effect.

NK is the only hereditary Communist Dictatorship in existence and in reality is a family (read mafia) business. Kim knows that without a nuke that can be delivered his days are numbered. If Kim's actions in the past are a predictor of the future then the omens are not good.

That leaves war now (endangering South Korea and Japan) or war later, which will throw the west coast into the pot. It seems to be a choice between pestilence and the plague if you ask me. I have always been a pragmatist rather than ideologue in terms of Foreign Policy, but damned if I can see another way out of the maze.

 

Yeah, we are left with a bunch of poor choices..... And I would suspect that the S. Korean government isn't in a hurry for a shooting war, as they are very well aware that they are the ones directly in the cross-hairs.....

 

Theoretically, it seems that we already suspect that NK has short-range missiles that *might* have nuclear warheads..... Would lil kim opt to use them, should a shooting war start? I don't really think he would launch first, to initiate hostilities.... but hey, with him, ya just never know.....

 

It is only going to become more difficult to find an acceptable solution to this knot. And I think the level of 'acceptability' is going to end up being a very low bar. No matter which way we slice it, the body count is going to be high..... The longer we wait, the higher that number is going to be.... Wonder if the SK government is aware of that, or if they are still in denial.

[RGMage2]

Just to play Devil's advocate (at the risk of being laughed out of here) there is an option that has never been tried.

 

Enter into negotiations with no preconditions for a comprehensive peace treaty. End sanctions, trade openly with them. Allow for free movement of people, not necessarily our people having access to their country, but their people having access to our countries, with the emphasis being on students from elite North Korean families coming to the west for education.

 

Young North Korean kids having an opportunity to see the world beyond the walls, and then returning to North Korea could eventually be a game changer. Eventually change would come from within.

 

Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-un's half brother was first in line to be Leader until he was caught trying to take his son to Disneyland in Japan. I can't help but wonder what would have happened if the Japanese had kept quiet about it and Kim Jong-nam had become the leader. His son seems to have turned out OK.

 

 

[HeyYou]

If we did that, lil kim would have no motivation to change his ways...... That, and the free travel would ensure that his spies had free access to countries he was interested in. An interesting idea, and with some other country, it might even work, (cuba?) But in this case, I think it would do more harm than good, and we would find ourselves in an even worse situation later.

 

We have already shown that the kim regime (all three of them) do not stick to the terms of any agreements we come to. We have tried the lure, now it's time for the stick.

Edited April 16, 2017 by HeyYou

[RatB0Y68]

Warning: The following is nothing more than the subjective opinion of a layman; I am not an expert in geopolitical strategy or military tactics.

 

Assuming you could somehow convince the dear leader to let his captive audience out of the country to see other lands and how they do things, your idea might have a slim chance of eventually working in about a decade or so (perhaps a bit more).

 

That is to say, these youths, having seen other systems or methods of thought, could eventually spread their ideas and inspire dissent and who knows? Maybe even a revolution.

 

Even so, it will be far from ideal, the people coming back may be ostracised and persecuted, they would also have to find a way to avoid being disappeared by the authorities.

Even if they survive to instigate a rebellion, this would be a long, bloody civil war, with no guarrantee of success. It could drag other nations in to be involved by proxy, as in Syria. It would still be a protracted, nightmarish uphill battle, and the country and its people may never be able to stand on their feet again, even if they finally manage to drag their deluded maniac of a leader kicking and screaming to his grave.

 

In summary, it could just work, but the chances are slim. It will also be as painful as the other options on the table.

[Fkemman11]

I just wonder if China might use this as an excuse to roll across the border to play "peacekeeper"? Sometimes the solution is worse than the problem. :happy:

[HeyYou]

I just wonder if China might use this as an excuse to roll across the border to play "peacekeeper"? Sometimes the solution is worse than the problem. :happy:

Not like they don't have enough troops in the area to do just that.... And quite frankly, I think I would rather have China in charge there, than Lil Kim...... Let China spend money/lives to get that little dirtbag out of power.

[Aurielius]

 

I just wonder if China might use this as an excuse to roll across the border to play "peacekeeper"? Sometimes the solution is worse than the problem. :happy:

Not like they don't have enough troops in the area to do just that.... And quite frankly, I think I would rather have China in charge there, than Lil Kim...... Let China spend money/lives to get that little dirtbag out of power.

 

The Chinese have moved 150k troops close to the border. At least the Chinese are rational, so if they want it, let them have it... :ninja:

[Fkemman11]

With the Chinese, North Koreans, and Russians all in the same area, things look increasingly unstable. One tiny spark would light the way toward another World War with everyone picking sides. Not a pleasant idea at all. :no:

If China does invade and subdue the NK then they will probably turn their sites to South Korea. Would we just hand it over?

[HeyYou]

I would like to think that China isn't so foolish as to start a war of conquest with a US ally...... That would indeed be bad news, for all concerned.

[Aurielius]

On other fronts we have dispatched the 34th Fighter Squadron to the UK (F-35A's). It seems as if we are bolstering positions in the west as well, or we are trying to reassure the Brits that the 138 they ordered are worth the money....maybe both. :whistling:

 

Edit: The Nimitz and the Ronald Regan have been dispatched to the Sea of Japan, that brings the current operational battle group up to three Carriers.