War with N. Korea?

[Fkemman11]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/north-korea-fm-us-bombers/index.html

 

According to this N. Korea has said that it will shoot down U.S. bombers even if they are not in their airspace. The Trumpident has said something to the effect of N. Korean leadership will "not be around much longer". Is the President trying to bait them into firing the first shot? That is what it seems like to me. Note that the U.S. has been increasing its forces in the area for several months now.- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/28/us-promises-to-deploy-strategic-military-assets-near-korean-peninsula

[Di0nysys]

This kind of rhetoric happens all the time as part of political posturing. At the end of the day, it's about regime survival for them, pushing the US out of Japan and South Korea, and establishing a form of power balance with the US to give it security assurances. The real fear is an accident, a plane or rocket being shot down by either side triggering a conflict that could extend into war. But don't mistake it, North Korea knows pretty well they wouldn't survive all out war, and the US knows the damage NK can inflict on Seoul and Japan could be devastating. Neither side wants war.

[HeyYou]

Neither side wants a war, but, there is going to be one anyway. Once Kim demonstrates that he does indeed have nuclear tipped ICBMs, he is going to start with his demands "or else". We are already seeing the precursor to this. So, unless we want to continually be subject to NK nuclear blackmail, the situation needs to change. We can do it NOW, and be pretty sure no nuclear weapons are used, or, we can wait until later, and be pretty much assured that nuclear weapons WILL be used.

 

Either way, Seoul is going to take a pounding. Unfortunately, I don't see a good way to avoid that. The question becomes, do we want to save more lives today, only to sacrifice more lives later? There really isn't a good, reliable solution here. Ideally, China/Russia would put the screws to lil kim, and tell him flat out: "no more trade till you dismantle your nuclear/missile programs." But, that is extremely unlikely to happen. Russia is already beginning to supply more aid to NK, and NK tankers are filling up in Russian/Chinese ports, with listed destinations 'elsewhere', but, returning to NK to offload anyway. (violating the sanctions that both russia, and china, voted for.)

 

So, there you have it. War now. Or war later. I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that trumps goading of the 'little rocket man' wasn't specifically intended to prompt him to make the first move, in which case, Russia, and China, have both stated they would "stay out of it." If I were The Donald, I would have DAILY flights of supersonic bombers cruising just outside NK territorial waters, with a couple fighters for company, to shoot down any SAM's NK should happen to launch.

[Fkemman11]

Neither side wants a war, but, there is going to be one anyway. Once Kim demonstrates that he does indeed have nuclear tipped ICBMs, he is going to start with his demands "or else". We are already seeing the precursor to this. So, unless we want to continually be subject to NK nuclear blackmail, the situation needs to change. We can do it NOW, and be pretty sure no nuclear weapons are used, or, we can wait until later, and be pretty much assured that nuclear weapons WILL be used.

 

Either way, Seoul is going to take a pounding. Unfortunately, I don't see a good way to avoid that. The question becomes, do we want to save more lives today, only to sacrifice more lives later? There really isn't a good, reliable solution here. Ideally, China/Russia would put the screws to lil kim, and tell him flat out: "no more trade till you dismantle your nuclear/missile programs." But, that is extremely unlikely to happen. Russia is already beginning to supply more aid to NK, and NK tankers are filling up in Russian/Chinese ports, with listed destinations 'elsewhere', but, returning to NK to offload anyway. (violating the sanctions that both russia, and china, voted for.)

 

So, there you have it. War now. Or war later. I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that trumps goading of the 'little rocket man' wasn't specifically intended to prompt him to make the first move, in which case, Russia, and China, have both stated they would "stay out of it." If I were The Donald, I would have DAILY flights of supersonic bombers cruising just outside NK territorial waters, with a couple fighters for company, to shoot down any SAM's NK should happen to launch.

Agreed. The only resolution to this situation is war. Would be better if they fired the first shots though. I think they have a plan in place- or several- but do not want to be seen as the aggressors in the region. Honestly I do believe the Prez is goading them on purpose and should step it up like you say to get things started. I do not like it, but, when a fight is inevitable it would be better to do it NOW with conventional arms as much as possible. I mean who is to say what kind of "ally" China or Russia is or will be in the future? An assurance by them to stand down in this fight is as good as it will likely ever get- and Washington knows it. The fact that S. Korea will bear the brunt is not pleasant and I do feel for them.

[Harbringe]

Even the Chinese have come to realize NK has become a problem. When Kim un Jong came to power the first thing he did was remove all those in the Gov't who may have had loyalties to his father and connections with China and he was very brutal in doing so. The Chinese now having lost those insider people have come to realize this guy could be as much a problem to them as to the US or anyone else.In times past China would use NK as a foil to get something else , but now they can't do that anymore because they don't have the kind of influence/pull on NK as they once did. At one time they would've never said if NK starts something they will stand back and let it happen , now they are saying that , something very fundamental has changed in the relationship between NK and China.

 

A barking dog is only useful on a strong leash.

[TheMastersSon]

The longer we wait the worse it will be imo. How can Jong-un's rhetoric be considered anything other than a personal threat against the lives of all Americans? IMO Trump won't have any problem generating support for military intervention in NK, unlike GWB and Iraq. Hopefully this time around we'll be spared the media collusion between Karl Rove and Hollywood, and have to deal with another round of ridiculous propaganda ("Countdown to Iraq" and similar garbage, if anyone remembers these programs). I don't think it'll be necessary for NK.

 

Despite the above, I also think it's important to remember Korea's political and now half century old stalemate was entirely imposed on the country by foreigners. In case anyone has forgotten, Korea was completely and arbitrarily divided as part of the WWII treaties of other countries. So I strongly believe the Korean people deserve the same freedom of self-determination for their government that our country enjoys. And if it means a civil war in that country, it should be allowed to happen. We and virtually all other countries had to suffer through our own, you know.

Edited October 7, 2017 by TheMastersSon

[HeyYou]

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

[TheMastersSon]

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

Nobody is good at it, and history has proven it can be accomplished only by the tips of rifles. People regardless of location determine their own destinies, political and otherwise, and democracy requires minimum levels of popular will and support to have any chance of success. This support never existed in Vietnam or Iraq, it barely existed in Afghanistan and time will tell if it exists in Korea.

[Aurielius]

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

Nation building? Hell, I just want to get through the actual war without having the largest civilian body count since 1944.

Winter is coming....

[TheMastersSon]

 

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

Nation building? Hell, I just want to get through the actual war without having the largest civilian body count since 1944.

Winter is coming....

 

Just a guess but I think we might be surprised by how quickly NK changes its posture when their dictatorial regime is removed from power (btw imo the exact same is true for the graft operation that calls itself the PRC, but that's another thread). But nobody else in the world is more familiar with the wealth disparity in Korea between south and north than the Korean people, so I think their response will look far more like East Germany's when the Berlin Wall fell.