War with N. Korea?

[HeyYou]

 

 

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

Nation building? Hell, I just want to get through the actual war without having the largest civilian body count since 1944.

Winter is coming....

 

Just a guess but I think we might be surprised by how quickly NK changes its posture when their dictatorial regime is removed from power (btw imo the exact same is true for the graft operation that calls itself the PRC, but that's another thread). But nobody else in the world is more familiar with the wealth disparity in Korea between south and north than the Korean people, so I think their response will look far more like East Germany's when the Berlin Wall fell.

 

According to the press..... (yeah, I know....) the N. Korean people are 'fanatically devoted' to their leader...... My question becomes: What are they going to do when their 'leader' vanishes in a puff of smoke? (along with a bunch of his cronies......)

[TheMastersSon]

 

 

 

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

Nation building? Hell, I just want to get through the actual war without having the largest civilian body count since 1944.

Winter is coming....

 

Just a guess but I think we might be surprised by how quickly NK changes its posture when their dictatorial regime is removed from power (btw imo the exact same is true for the graft operation that calls itself the PRC, but that's another thread). But nobody else in the world is more familiar with the wealth disparity in Korea between south and north than the Korean people, so I think their response will look far more like East Germany's when the Berlin Wall fell.

 

According to the press..... (yeah, I know....) the N. Korean people are 'fanatically devoted' to their leader...... My question becomes: What are they going to do when their 'leader' vanishes in a puff of smoke? (along with a bunch of his cronies......)

 

Two words: paid wailers:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/13/north-korea-punish-mourners-insincere-kim-jong-il_n_1204377.html

Edited October 8, 2017 by TheMastersSon

[kvnchrist]

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

My money is on the Chinese. They will take him out and replace him with someone that's less wacked out.

 

The NK generals know which side their bread is buttered on and get in line .

[HeyYou]

 

 

 

 

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

Nation building? Hell, I just want to get through the actual war without having the largest civilian body count since 1944.

Winter is coming....

 

Just a guess but I think we might be surprised by how quickly NK changes its posture when their dictatorial regime is removed from power (btw imo the exact same is true for the graft operation that calls itself the PRC, but that's another thread). But nobody else in the world is more familiar with the wealth disparity in Korea between south and north than the Korean people, so I think their response will look far more like East Germany's when the Berlin Wall fell.

 

According to the press..... (yeah, I know....) the N. Korean people are 'fanatically devoted' to their leader...... My question becomes: What are they going to do when their 'leader' vanishes in a puff of smoke? (along with a bunch of his cronies......)

 

Two words: paid wailers:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/13/north-korea-punish-mourners-insincere-kim-jong-il_n_1204377.html

 

I think they were more referring to the grunts in the military. After all, their life is somewhat better than the average citizen.... and if lil kim goes away, what happens to them? (and if he is already gone, then what are they gonna do?)

 

 

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

My money is on the Chinese. They will take him out and replace him with someone that's less wacked out.

 

The NK generals know which side their bread is buttered on and get in line .

 

It would take both China, and Russia, to completely cut off ALL trade/aid to NK to really get his attention, and end all this without a shot being fired. I really don't think they will though.... But, you are correct. China could take him out, in whatever manner they saw fit, and no one would bat an eye. :D

[Fkemman11]

 

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

My money is on the Chinese. They will take him out and replace him with someone that's less wacked out.

 

The NK generals know which side their bread is buttered on and get in line .

 

The thing is though, that option has been on the table for the Chinese for some time now.....and they haven't taken it. Possibly to not upset the Russians? On the other hand, they also probably would not like a united democratic Korea as next door neighbors- friendly with the West. Maybe they feel stuck between a rock and a hard place. Hard to tell with them. Makes me wonder how many factors are actually in play here.

[TheMastersSon]

 

 

If we simply do a surgical strike, and cut off the head of the beast, and NOT invade.... no 'boots on the ground', and then allow the N Korean people to decide what happens next, we will be in a much better position than attempting to impose anything on them. (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya..... et. al.) It should be patently obvious to everyone, that we flat out suck at nation building. Sure, we were good at it back in the late 40's, but, today? Not so much.

My money is on the Chinese. They will take him out and replace him with someone that's less wacked out.

 

The NK generals know which side their bread is buttered on and get in line .

 

The thing is though, that option has been on the table for the Chinese for some time now.....and they haven't taken it. Possibly to not upset the Russians? On the other hand, they also probably would not like a united democratic Korea as next door neighbors- friendly with the West. Maybe they feel stuck between a rock and a hard place. Hard to tell with them. Makes me wonder how many factors are actually in play here.

 

Why would the PRC be worried about other Western friendly governments, when they themselves are buying our treasury notes and inexorably converting the greatest country in human history into a globalized third-world shithole. As long as free market capitalism is forced to compete with totalitarian Communism, the friendlier Western governments are to this outrage, the faster they fail and fall. We're already there after 45 years.

[HeyYou]

For whatever reason, China doesn't want an american ally on the southern border.... They likely assume that means they would have american TROOPS on their southern border, but, to my mind.... If there was a unified Korea, would we still see a need to keep troops stationed there? When we already have quite a few not so very far away in Japan?

[Harbringe]

For whatever reason, China doesn't want an american ally on the southern border.... They likely assume that means they would have american TROOPS on their southern border, but, to my mind.... If there was a unified Korea, would we still see a need to keep troops stationed there? When we already have quite a few not so very far away in Japan?

 

Tell ya a story. A little over a decade ago there was this Chinese family who was a bit lost in my city , their 2 daughters were going to be going to my local University , anyway I helped them get unlost , later that night they showed up at my house bearing gifts (Chinese custom when someone helps you out). So he starts showing me what he does for a living , he's a President of a division of some food comglomerate , I ask how big of a company and he says well we usually sell in excess of 600 million yogurt and I say 600 million yogurt a year in surprise and he says no per month. (they sell other stuff too). Anyway he is showing me all these pictures of his company and in these pictures there are images of him and people like the Prime Minister of Japan and other world leaders. So I'm like who the hell have I got in my house here , then I thought betcha he knows some of the inner thinking of Chinese political leaders , tried talking about Tianamen Square , whole family was ooh no we don't talk about that , but on NK they were a little more open. And it seems they saw NK as problematic , but if SK took over NK they fully well expected the US would try to set up military bases along the border with China and that was highly disliked in China. The only way you could get the Chinese to cooperate on NK is if they had a garantee there would be no American presence on the Korean pennisula.

 

I told him well if you dont do something about it and work out a deal with the Americans , they could become a problem for you in the future and sure enough they have. I wonder if he is now in China somewhere thinking Jeez he was right.

[Aurielius]

 

For whatever reason, China doesn't want an american ally on the southern border.... They likely assume that means they would have american TROOPS on their southern border, but, to my mind.... If there was a unified Korea, would we still see a need to keep troops stationed there? When we already have quite a few not so very far away in Japan?

 

Tell ya a story. A little over a decade ago there was this Chinese family who was a bit lost in my city , their 2 daughters were going to be going to my local University , anyway I helped them get unlost , later that night they showed up at my house bearing gifts (Chinese custom when someone helps you out). So he starts showing me what he does for a living , he's a President of a division of some food comglomerate , I ask how big of a company and he says well we usually sell in excess of 600 million yogurt and I say 600 million yogurt a year in surprise and he says no per month. (they sell other stuff too). Anyway he is showing me all these pictures of his company and in these pictures there are images of him and people like the Prime Minister of Japan and other world leaders. So I'm like who the hell have I got in my house here , then I thought betcha he knows some of the inner thinking of Chinese political leaders , tried talking about Tianamen Square , whole family was ooh no we don't talk about that , but on NK they were a little more open. And it seems they saw NK as problematic , but if SK took over NK they fully well expected the US would try to set up military bases along the border with China and that was highly disliked in China. The only way you could get the Chinese to cooperate on NK is if they had a garantee there would be no American presence on the Korean pennisula.

 

I told him well if you dont do something about it and work out a deal with the Americans , they could become a problem for you in the future and sure enough they have. I wonder if he is now in China somewhere thinking Jeez he was right.

 

If the PRC would guarantee the sovereignty of a unified Korea there would be no necessity to maintain anything more than the minimum troop levels required by SEATO ( a 90% draw down from current levels).

[Fkemman11]

All I need do is point to Taiwan to illustrate my point. This has been a bone of contingency between the U.S. and PRC for many decades now. China claims sovereignty over it while the US has backed its continued independence. Hong Kong was another hot bed of contingency between the UK and they. It is about fundamentally differing political ideologies. The struggle between totalitarian Communism and freedom loving Democracy. Why do you think the US has no diplomatic or other relations with Comm Cuba? Would the US tolerate a Comm Mexico? Therein lies your answer. The less their people understand about democracy, the better the govt. is able to influence them and control them. The closer your citizens are to western news and cultural influences, the harder it will be. That is more what I was talking about, although the US would very much like to gain strategic position on a global rival- that really should not be China's only concern. The possible interference of democratic dreams and subsequent erosion of their influence over their people is high on the their watch-list.