War with N. Korea?

[HeyYou]

All I need do is point to Taiwan to illustrate my point. This has been a bone of contingency between the U.S. and PRC for many decades now. China claims sovereignty over it while the US has backed its continued independence. Hong Kong was another hot bed of contingency between the UK and they. It is about fundamentally differing political ideologies. The struggle between totalitarian Communism and freedom loving Democracy. Why do you think the US has no diplomatic or other relations with Comm Cuba? Would the US tolerate a Comm Mexico? Therein lies your answer. The less their people understand about democracy, the better the govt. is able to influence them and control them. The closer your citizens are to western news and cultural influences, the harder it will be. That is more what I was talking about, although the US would very much like to gain strategic position on a global rival- that really should not be China's only concern. The possible interference of democratic dreams and subsequent erosion of their influence over their people is high on the their watch-list.

Yeah, we have had serious sanctions against Cuba for decades, because of their form of government, and their human rights abuses..... Then we have China, with the same style of government, and a pretty poor record on human rights.... and they have 'most favored nation' trading status.......

 

The US government are just being hypocrites.

[Harbringe]

 

 

For whatever reason, China doesn't want an american ally on the southern border.... They likely assume that means they would have american TROOPS on their southern border, but, to my mind.... If there was a unified Korea, would we still see a need to keep troops stationed there? When we already have quite a few not so very far away in Japan?

 

Tell ya a story. A little over a decade ago there was this Chinese family who was a bit lost in my city , their 2 daughters were going to be going to my local University , anyway I helped them get unlost , later that night they showed up at my house bearing gifts (Chinese custom when someone helps you out). So he starts showing me what he does for a living , he's a President of a division of some food comglomerate , I ask how big of a company and he says well we usually sell in excess of 600 million yogurt and I say 600 million yogurt a year in surprise and he says no per month. (they sell other stuff too). Anyway he is showing me all these pictures of his company and in these pictures there are images of him and people like the Prime Minister of Japan and other world leaders. So I'm like who the hell have I got in my house here , then I thought betcha he knows some of the inner thinking of Chinese political leaders , tried talking about Tianamen Square , whole family was ooh no we don't talk about that , but on NK they were a little more open. And it seems they saw NK as problematic , but if SK took over NK they fully well expected the US would try to set up military bases along the border with China and that was highly disliked in China. The only way you could get the Chinese to cooperate on NK is if they had a garantee there would be no American presence on the Korean pennisula.

 

I told him well if you dont do something about it and work out a deal with the Americans , they could become a problem for you in the future and sure enough they have. I wonder if he is now in China somewhere thinking Jeez he was right.

 

If the PRC would guarantee the sovereignty of a unified Korea there would be no necessity to maintain anything more than the minimum troop levels required by SEATO ( a 90% draw down from current levels).

 

 

Thats the whole problem , even if they dd garantee Korean independence they have no confidence the Americans wouldn't line up their military on the border. Lets be honest the Russians bought into that line of thinking 30+ years ago in eastern Europe and 30 years later America is lining up all kinds of stuff on their border , despite being told this wouldn't happen. China is looking at that and saying see told ya so.

[HeyYou]

Not to mention what is going on in Eastern Europe even today..... Moving tanks and such towards Ukraine..... Russia taking Crimea didn't help matters.. Neither Russia, nor China, have ANY reason to believe we would honor any such agreement. And China is supposed to be our "friend"..... considering most of our manufacturing is there.....

 

The world is a complicated place, and there just aren't any easy answers.

[Di0nysys]

People who are arguing for a war are simply mad. Seoul is massive city that is 35 miles south of the korean DMZ. In the case of a war, the north would pummel Seoul, a mega city that houses over 25 million people with it's entire stockpile of short range ballistic missiles. The casualties would be catastrophic, not to forget the deep economic impact it would have on South Korea. NK can also pummel Japan and the US forces in the area significantly.

Add to that, the north has one of the largest land armies in the world with an active force a million troops, with a reserve of 6 million available personnel. The US would absolutely win, but not before killing hundreds of thousands of people. All of this is ignoring ofc the use of Nuclear strikes which the regime would inevitably use when it knows for sure that it's going down.

The only rational way to solve this is by Donald Trump quieting his rhetoric and sitting down with the koreans and making a deal. This high school playground dick measuring contest is retarded, dangerous and incredibly irresponsible.

[TheMastersSon]

Wait, trump should quiet his rhetoric? Last I heard Jong-un had publicly stated his intent to use the nuclear weapons he's been testing, and use them on me, my family and entire country. How should one respond to that? One test registered 6.4 on the USGS earthquake maps. So imo the time for talk is over and this evil clown must be deposed of his reign of terror over the Korean people and world. The longer we wait the worse it will be for all involved imo.

[HeyYou]

People who are arguing for a war are simply mad. Seoul is massive city that is 35 miles south of the korean DMZ. In the case of a war, the north would pummel Seoul, a mega city that houses over 25 million people with it's entire stockpile of short range ballistic missiles. The casualties would be catastrophic, not to forget the deep economic impact it would have on South Korea. NK can also pummel Japan and the US forces in the area significantly.

 

Add to that, the north has one of the largest land armies in the world with an active force a million troops, with a reserve of 6 million available personnel. The US would absolutely win, but not before killing hundreds of thousands of people. All of this is ignoring ofc the use of Nuclear strikes which the regime would inevitably use when it knows for sure that it's going down.

 

The only rational way to solve this is by Donald Trump quieting his rhetoric and sitting down with the koreans and making a deal. This high school playground dick measuring contest is retarded, dangerous and incredibly irresponsible.

No one WANTS a war. But, that doesn't mean there isn't going to be one. Lil Kim is already indulging in nuclear blackmail, the longer we wait, the worse it is going to get. At this point, he may, or may not... have warheads he can actually put on missiles, the longer we wait, the higher the likelihood that he WILL have them.

 

And yes, IF there is a war, folks are going to die. That is just the way things work. However, if we fight him NOW, we can quite likely limit the war to conventional arms. That is not going to remain the case for much longer. If Kim starts tossing nukes, the casualty count will dwarf the damage he can currently do. We will go from 10 of thousands, to millions...... Personally, I would MUCH prefer that damage was limited to the Korean peninsula..... I would just as soon not give kim time to get his weapons program to the point he can actually hit Japan, Guam, or the US.

[Di0nysys]

North Korea is a rational political actor no matter what you hear people say. Developing nukes is the regime's method of guaranteeing it's survival by making it prohibitively expensive for someone to topple it. Just look at the fate of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya who both had nuclear programs and gave them up only to be taken out by the US. This is them learning.

Ofc the US could absolutely obliterate NK from the face of the map if it launches any nukes. But that would have catastrophic consequences in the 10's of millions. They don't want that. This is all part of the political posturing that happens between powers. It'll pass. The US is gonna have to negotiate with them eventually, something Rex Tillerson was doing a few days ago when Donald Trump undermined him with a tweet.

[TheMastersSon]

North Korea is a rational political actor no matter what you hear people say. Developing nukes is the regime's method of guaranteeing it's survival by making it prohibitively expensive for someone to topple it. Just look at the fate of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya who both had nuclear programs and gave them up only to be taken out by the US. This is them learning.

 

Ofc the US could absolutely obliterate NK from the face of the map if it launches any nukes. But that would have catastrophic consequences in the 10's of millions. They don't want that. This is all part of the political posturing that happens between powers. It'll pass. The US is gonna have to negotiate with them eventually, something Rex Tillerson was doing a few days ago when Donald Trump undermined him with a tweet.

"I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire."

-- Kim Jong-un, 9/22/17

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/world/asia/kim-jong-un-trump.html

 

This is when he's not busy making the same threat against the other two-thirds (population-wise) of his own country.

 

I sure wish he'd just let the dotard continue taming himself with stupidity, e.g.:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2017/08/08/god-has-given-trump-authority-to-take-out-kim-jong-un-evangelical-adviser-says/

 

If Trump believes he's God tool for nuclear holocaust, imo the prospects for avoidance of it are somewhere between zero and a negative number. :)

Edited October 12, 2017 by TheMastersSon

[HeyYou]

North Korea is a rational political actor no matter what you hear people say. Developing nukes is the regime's method of guaranteeing it's survival by making it prohibitively expensive for someone to topple it. Just look at the fate of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya who both had nuclear programs and gave them up only to be taken out by the US. This is them learning.

 

Ofc the US could absolutely obliterate NK from the face of the map if it launches any nukes. But that would have catastrophic consequences in the 10's of millions. They don't want that. This is all part of the political posturing that happens between powers. It'll pass. The US is gonna have to negotiate with them eventually, something Rex Tillerson was doing a few days ago when Donald Trump undermined him with a tweet.

Terribly sorry, but, "rational" actors don't regularly threaten everyone and their cousin with wiping out their country with nuclear weapons. Especially when everyone KNOWS it is an empty threat. Currently. So, shall we allow NK to develop their weapons/missile programs to the point that the can back that threat up?

 

We have been negotiating with NK for decades, and if follows a familiar pattern. Belligerence, negotiation, concessions, quiet for a while, then right back to belligerence. Not a single agreement with NK has lasted more than 2 years. Not. One.

 

So, let me ask you this. Would YOU continue to negotiate with someone that you KNEW FOR A FACT would NOT honor the agreement?

[Fkemman11]

North Korea LIVE: UAE terminates North Korean diplomatic mission, ends visas
The US flew B-1B bombers from Guam to the Korean Peninsula for joint exercises with the South Korean Air Force late Tuesday. Please stay tuned for live updates and other interesting developments.- MoneyControl.com

 

Well, the US is testing them. Let's see if they take the bait.- http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/865181/north-korea-news-world-war-3-usa-president-donald-trump-wick-of-war-kim-jong-un-attack

 

On Saturday he tweeted: "Presidents and their administrations have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive amounts of money paid hasn't worked, agreements violated before the ink was dry, makings fools of U.S. negotiators. Sorry, but only one thing will work!"

 

The real question in my mind is whether the Chinese would "unofficially" support N. Korea in a conventional war? Although China never joined the first Korean War, they did send pilots and troops I think. Russia also sent pilots in either Korea or Vietnam. Would N. Korea use Chinese territory as a shield by ducking behind their border? I agree with the Prez on this, but something tells me it is going to be a BIG f*cking mess that we will not easily withdraw from in the future if we commit more ground forces. But the S. Korean army is heavily outnumbered and outgunned and cannot hold ground for long against the North. We have failed both there and in Vietnam in the past. What makes anyone think things will be different this time? We still have many troops in the middle east. Will combined arms with our allies be enough? Do we really have that many advantages? Or any?