War with N. Korea?

[TheMastersSon]

Although China never joined the first Korean War, they did send pilots and troops I think.

They provided not some but most of the munitions to put 57,000+ of our kids to death in Vietnam. Nixon's response was to send Henry Kissinger to China to "open the gate" to the killers of our own children.

 

[Aurielius]

 

Although China never joined the first Korean War, they did send pilots and troops I think.

They provided not some but most of the munitions to put 57,000+ of our kids to death in Vietnam. Nixon's response was to send Henry Kissinger to China to "open the gate" to the killers of our own children.

 

The Russians had combat pilots in the Korean war and the Chinese had theirs in Vietnam. Most of us in country knew it.

[Fkemman11]

Well, their airforce seems like it would be more of a annoyance than a threat. Achieving air-superiority doesn't seem to be much of a problem. Once we have that, then wiping out their ground forces and hard targets should be pretty similar to what we did in Iraq. I'm not familiar with the terrain though. Is it mostly mountainous regions? I'll bet they have plenty of facilities dug into those mountains. Will be tough to cook them out of there one section at a time. Another Afghanistan. F*ckin hate guerrilla warfare!

[TheMastersSon]

I agree the major goal (aside from deposing Jong-un) will be keeping China out of it. It'll be much easier said than done because of the 900 mile and almost entirely unprotected border between China and NK. If it escalates to nuclear war, fallout will involve China whether or not it wishes to be. So I think everything possible will be done to limit the operation to conventional weapons to depose Jong-un. I think it's also the reason why waiting is not an option for Trump: the longer he delays the more likely it is that our only remaining military option will be nuclear.

[Harbringe]

The worst case scenario that only involves NK (no China , no Russia) that I have seen is 30 million dead. Even the best case scenario's put it at a few million. There are 2 big problems. Seoul and nukes.The nukes are easy either you get em or you dont. Seoul on the other hand is tricky. Its estimated NK has 200 - 300 170+ mm artillery that can hit the northern half of the city of Seoul and then there are the rocket and missiles that would rain down. But unlike rockets and missiles artillery you can fire and reload repeatedly. Also those gun are on the north side of mountains north of Seoul , meaning they fire up the slope of the mountain and anyone returning fire has to contend with their shells slamming into the side of the mountain protecting the NK guns. Its a particular problem. The only real way to deal with it is through air power , but you would have to come at it with an overwhelming air assault from the north side and you would have to be willing to accept losses or just nuke the area , but then that would make you the one firing off nukes first.

 

Even if you managed to pull those two things off with minimal casualties , your still going to be having hundreds of missiles raining down all over the region and having to fight your way up the Korean pennisula which is some pretty rugged terrain. No doubt there is going to be millions dead once its all over.

 

Feel sorry for the Korean people.

[HeyYou]

It all depends on what the goal is in the beginning, and how we set out to accomplish it. If all we want to do is get rid of lil kim, then a quick surgical strike on a select few targets should accomplish the goal. Once he is dead, are the NKs STILL going to want to get into a dust-up that they KNOW they will LOSE?

 

I don't think it really needs to be an 'all-out' invasion. That would indeed guarantee massive casualties on both sides....

 

From what I have read, NK has something to the tune of 8 THOUSAND artillery tubes that are in range of Seoul....... If they decide to start crankin' on those, they are going to make a serious mess, in short order. We can destroy them with counter-battery fire..... but, in order to know where to fire, THEY have to fire FIRST...... They can't fire the gun, then move it back into cover before the counter-fire shows up..... But even so, if each tube only gets one shot, (wildly optimistic) and only 10% of those actually hit the target, (again, wildly optimistic) that is still 800 rounds coming down in a densely populated city. Yeah, casualties will be high, to say the least.

 

Trouble is, NK is ALWAYS going to have that capability. Their ability to inflict massive casualties is only going to INCREASE over time. Geometrically....... if they have the ability to put nukes, even poor-performing ones, on even short range missiles, it's a whole new ballgame. Just a couple of those would dwarf the damage the artillery would be able to do.......

 

So, what do we do? Do we continue with our 'strategic patience'.... knowing full well that once lil kim has the confirmed ability to strike pretty much anywhere he wants with hydrogen bombs.... he is going to be 'negotiating' from a MUCH stronger position. (which is likely exactly what he wants......) You think his demands are outrageous NOW? Wait until he can threaten to drop an H-bomb on a large city...... He is going to be absolutely impossible to live with, and taking him out at that point will be MUCH more expensive.

[TheMastersSon]

Once he is dead, are the NKs STILL going to want to get into a dust-up that they KNOW they will LOSE?

Considering NK's dire poverty I doubt they would, or even could. The thing about military dictatorships is that they tend to collapse entirely when the dictators are removed. We didn't see any organized efforts by anyone (even Arabs) to bring Saddam Hussein back in Iraq. Or Qaddafi in Libya etc. So I'd be shocked if the NK people wished to destroy the other and far more prosperous/wealthy two-thirds of their own country. Again long-term imo it will look more like German reunification than an extended conflict.

[HeyYou]

 

Once he is dead, are the NKs STILL going to want to get into a dust-up that they KNOW they will LOSE?

Considering NK's dire poverty I doubt they would, or even could. The thing about military dictatorships is that they tend to collapse entirely when the dictators are removed. We didn't see any organized efforts by anyone (even Arabs) to bring Saddam Hussein back in Iraq. Or Qaddafi in Libya etc. So I'd be shocked if the NK people wished to destroy the other and far more prosperous/wealthy two-thirds of their own country. Again long-term imo it will look more like German reunification than an extended conflict.

 

I would like to think so as well, however..... Kims 'people' supposedly consider him just short of a God....... one would think they would be quite annoyed if someone killed him.... of course, it isn't 'the people' making the decision to go to war or not either.....

 

Of course, if we strike first, then NK will have the backing of China and Russia.... and that may embolden them enough to actually start tossing large quantities of ordinance at SK.....

 

I think the trick here is going to be pissing off lil kim enough that he makes a misstep, that we can then use as an excuse to pound the snot out of HIM. Not NK in general, just kimmie boy in particular.

[TheMastersSon]

I would like to think so as well, however..... Kims 'people' supposedly consider him just short of a God.......

That's because and only because any other form of treatment results in death or imprisonment e.g.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2546506/North-Korean-leader-Kim-Jong-Un-executes-family-uncle-Jang-Song-Thaek.html

 

And this is Jong-un's own family he put to death, simply to prevent the possibility of insubordination. We're dealing with one baby step above wild animal here, folks.

[twowolves80]

One thing I've not seen discussed in this thread is the nature of his attack. Obviously, if the lunatic is going to attack, he's going to use nukes. I don't think his end game is a thermonuclear strike, however. I think he genuinely believes if he can lob a nuke high enough over the top of us and trigger a Carrington event, he can win. This has to be the ideology because in every other scenario, he loses. That is the one possible way he could set us back enough to win. That is the only way he could set us back enough to win.

Carrington events are public knowledge, as is the means to create them on a massive scale through the creative use of nuclear-tipped ICBMs. Russia knows about it. China knows about it. Everyone knows about it. Lob a nuke six miles up above NE Ohio/SW Pennsylvania, and goodbye USA. The entire power grid would be wiped out because it's never been hardened and the cost to do so is in the billions. Our government has already done studies on this type of attack, projecting casualties as high as 90% within 2 years due to starvation, disease, pestilence, and crime. We would be sent back to the 1700s almost overnight, and it would take a minimum of two years to begin rebuilding since the electrical equipment for substations is no longer even manufactured in the United States--those giant transformers are made in China. Yep, the irony is enough to choke on.

 

From the above link:

Last year Woolsey stated that Russian officials informed the United States in 2004 that the design specs for a “Super-EMP” nuclear warhead has “leaked” from their country to North Korea. The Russian generals also reportedly told American officials that North Korea could have the ability to develop such a weapon in a “few years.”

James Woolsey also had this to say about viable EMP attack threat from North Korea:

 

“There is now an increasing likelihood that rogue nations such as North Korea, and before long, most likely, Iran, will soon match Russia and China in that they will have the primary ingredients for an EMP attack...We must change our policy to assess these threats and deploy defenses against them. The EMP Commission estimates that within 12 months of an EMP event two-thirds of the U.S. population would likely perish from starvation, disease, and societal breakdown.”

 

 

Kim Jong Un isn't going to strike unless he thinks he can win, no matter how insane he is. Insanity doesn't mean he lost common sense. If nothing else, it will make him more cunning because he doesn't care how many people he kills. Why take out 250 million (or more) with a simple nuclear strike against L.A., when you could take out 350 billion by getting one ICBM to hit higher up? He already has the missiles that will reach Chicago. It only takes one. And this is missile tech he most likely got from Iran, thanks to that ridiculous nuclear treaty with them. The timing is too coincidental to be simple irony: Iran gets their nuclear treaty, six months later, NK is suddenly showcasing new missile tech. It wasn't Russia--that was a smoke screen/red herring (lol--"red" herring--see what I did there?).

The Last of Us suddenly becomes a very dangerous possibility (fungally-infected "zombies" notwithstanding) of what our world could come to look like if that happens. 350 billion people gone, in two years or less.

 

Better sign up with your local Vault-Tec agent real soon.

Edited October 14, 2017 by twowolves80