How dangerous is North Korea now?

[Ahvaren]

NK does seem to have a marked lack of resources valuable to anyone that would spur other countries into aiding them. The task will fall to the victors. Just my opinion. Cheers!!!! V/R MistTiger

 

NK does have resources, of the mineral variety. There's an estimated $6 trillion sitting under that country-- they just lack the ability to get at it efficiently. The problem with this is that NK is in such economic bad shape that any country that tries to reform them has got to have a very strong economy to weather the first period of aid. SK isn't big enough to support that kind of undertaking. NK would immediately tank their economy if they tried to incorporate.

Edited April 7, 2013 by Ahvaren

[MistTiger]

 

NK does seem to have a marked lack of resources valuable to anyone that would spur other countries into aiding them. The task will fall to the victors. Just my opinion. Cheers!!!! V/R MistTiger

 

NK does have resources, of the mineral variety. There's an estimated $6 trillion sitting under that country-- they just lack the ability to get at it efficiently. The problem with this is that NK is in such economic bad shape that any country that tries to reform them has got to have a very strong economy to weather the first period of aid. SK isn't big enough to support that kind of undertaking. NK would immediately tank their economy if they tried to incorporate.

Ahvaren, I bow to your superior knowledge concerning NK natural resources. Doing what any good researcher should have done before writing I checked out your comments with three independent credible sources and you are correct. Goes to show you that looks and appearances are deceiving with regards to NK. The insular policies and aggressiveness of NK have hindered them in developing their natural resources. Thanks for the correction. I value truth over pride. I also believe that you are correct that SK will have a difficult time absorbing NK into its economy. The SK will have their hands full fighting the war after the war as they will be trying to change 65+ years of indoctrination against them and non-communist values. Would not expect full integration for several years. Thanks again!!!

 

Just my opinion. Cheers!!! V/R MistTiger

[HeyYou]

 

What N. Korea really wants is a peace treaty, and billions in foreign aid. Since the sabre-rattling and rhetoric has worked so well in the past...... they are again taking that route. After all, Daddy, and Granddad used it to great effect. Trouble is, folks are bored with it. No one is really paying all that much attention, and the world isn't lining up to give them whatever they want, in the forlorn hope that they will suspend their nuclear program, again. (Note: I say "suspend", as opposed to "terminate", as that is all that ever happens. They make some noise, get what they want, are good for a while, decide they want some more, and start the process all over again.)

 

So, at this point, we have a few choices.

 

1. Give in to their demands, go to the negotiating table, hammer out an agreement. N. Korea is good for a couple months/years, then, right back to the same old thing.

 

2. We attack first. World opinion then sees the US as the aggressor, and we are the bad guys. Seoul gets soundly trounced with artillery fire from the north. Hundreds of thousands die. N. Korea ceases to exist as an independent nation, when they are utterly overwhelmed by american/s. korean military.

 

3. S. Korea attacks first. World opinion would probably lean toward them being justified, as they are the ones in direct proximity, and most likely to suffer from any potential nuclear attack. Seoul gets soundly trounced by the norths artillery. N. Korea ceases to exist as an independent nation, when they are utterly overwhelmed by american and south korean military.

 

4. N. Korea attacks first, or does something stupid to set off the war. Seoul is soundly trounced by n. korean alrtillery.... etc. etc. etc.

 

5. China steps in, and deals with kim in whatever fashion they deem fit. No war involving the US, or N. Korea. N. Korea may survive as an independent nation, but, in name only. In reality, they will just be a protectorate of China.

 

We can't do enough damage fast enough to the north's artillery to spare Seoul, and probably other cities in easy range.... from being basically pounded to powder. I believe this is one of the major reasons we haven't taken military action, even on a limited scale, as yet.

 

As I see it, in three of the five possible scenarios, loss of life is going to be tremendous. N. Korea will do as much damage as they can, as fast as they can, as they are more than aware that they only have the resources to prosecute a war for a little more than a week. Then they will be out of fuel for their various vehicles. (including air power) They still have something to the tune of 700,000 soldiers though..... and they can make a heck of a mess before they are dealt with.

 

If we cave, all we will be doing is postponing the inevitable.

 

Having China and/or Russia deal with N. Korea would be the best possible outcome for all conerned. Whether they will step up and DO something though, remains to be seen.

 

Edit: Or....... LAUNCH a missile at Pyongyang. Give little kimmie a call, and let him know that death is on its way. We can destroy the missile before it hits, but, ONLY if you UNCONDITIONALLY SURRENDER RIGHT NOW! You have 20 minutes before impact. What's it gonna be little man?

HeyYou, I seriously doubt that the SK army is going to stand by and let the NK army pummel anyone with massed artillery. the SK have about 60% of the number of heavy artillery capability of NK but their targeting and counterbattery fire is going to be devastating to the much inferior aimed NK artillery. As the Iraqis found out in GW, the US can pretty much wipe out any prepared positions. Also, Thermobaric weapons are designed specifically to kill everything inside tunnels and prepared positions. Will there be a great loss of life in Seoul? Yes. It is doubtful that the aging NK armor will even penetrate into SK and the NK capture of Seoul scenarios collapsed by the late 90s. So, In your scenario, NK unleashes a firestorm of artillery and rockets at the south which the SK retaliates from their prepared positions. The fighting will rapidly devolved into vicious artillery duels until both sides exhaust their ammunition stores. At the same time, SK and US airpower starts the systematic destruction of every LOC and LOS for the NK military. All NK military C² centers are destroyed and the NK has no where to maneuver as all choke points such as bridges and rail intersections will be destroyed. SK artillery units will resupply as they will not have to worry about air attack or anything from NK other than Spec ops forces. the NK will be pinned down by SK and US airpower and will be unable to resupply. The old days of long lines of people hauling supplies south to the NK army will come to a swift halt with the first application of artillery and airborne clusterbomb units. Or mines, nothing like sowing a half million mines across southern NK. And if the US is feeling nasty, the application of several environmentally friendly neutron bombs will create instant deserts in areas of NK that piss us off. Ever wonder why the Iraqi army never put up much of a fight during GW2. PGM. Look it up. For relatively little cost compared to other PGMs, every US dumb bomb can now be a GPS guided JADAM. The paralyzed NK army will die in place.

 

If I were the commander in SK, I would sow mines and clusterbombs across the entire southern area of NK at the first round of artillery heading south. Last time I checked, NK artillery needed live people to fire it. They can't shoot when they're dead.

 

The only option NK will have at this point is to beg for PRC intervention. Hey, it saved them the last time, and they are definitely creatures of habit.

 

You bring up a lot of good points. But, the NK threat has steadily diminished over the years from credible military to an attempt at extortion through the artillery terror weapon.

 

But, As always Just my opinion. Cheers!!! V/R MistTiger

 

I will grant you that the NK artillery won't last long..... but, some estimates put the number of rounds they can lob into Seoul as high as 500,000, in an hour........ They have 8000 tubes...... Given that we ARE NOT going to be firing the first salvo...... NK is going to be able to get several volleys into the air before counter-battery fire can start taking them out. (counter-battery fire can only target the weapons AFTER they have already fired once......) Even if the guns only get one or two shots off...... Seoul has a population of 24 million people. Even if only 10% of the NK guns in range actually hit what they are shooting it, that is still 800 rounds..... That's gonna make a mess, and the loss of life will be tremendous. If NK actually uses chemical/bio weapons, it could be even worse. No matter how you look at it, it isn't going to be a good situation. Once the major fighting is over, yeah, I agree, not going to be a pretty picture.

[MistTiger]

HeyYou, good thoughts on the subject. Yes, there will be an amount of life lost in Seoul which covers 234 square miles of land. NK has had plenty of time to range the most important targets in the city. Just as SK has had plenty of time to harden their important areas in Seoul against artillery attack and to range the NK artillery positions. It is a pointless game of spy vs. spy. Undirected artillery is much less effective than directed artillery. the NK has cold war tech. Directed artillery fire in conjunction with artillery tracking radar is a lethal combination against undirected artillery. Naturally I would take out all rocket launchers and large caliber artillery first. They might survive a couple of minutes at most. UAV spotting and cluster bomb munitions would be absolutely lethal to exposed non self propelled artillery and all rocket units. The goal in counter battery is not necessary to destroy the weapon but to neutralize its capabilities. No weapons crew is a great way to do that. Cluster munitions would also leave behind a persistent deterrent to future use of that asset by NK forces or from civilians attempting to gain military hardware. Wow!!! your own instant minefield. Small enough for even UAVs to drop. Self propelled assets would have to be targeted with anti-armor artillery rounds and might last a little longer if they shoot and move quick enough. The leaders in NK are basically threatening a spite mission against SK which will not have a huge effect on SK as a whole and probably contribute to a huge number of atrocities against the the NK army and civilians when SK pushes north. Would you take prisoners of those who just killed your family members in Seoul in a senseless act of spite? It is going to take a high level of discipline in the SK army not to just kill every NK citizen they happen on. Having worked closely with them, I think that they will act in an appropriate disciplined manner in response to the Nk terror tactics. There are a couple of much better ways to damage Seoul than an artillery attack. Blowing the dams on the upper Han river is a much more damaging option. Why not just use their nukes on Seoul. As you can see, a country like NK with little better than cold war technology is not going to be terribly effective against the south. People in the military do not equal victory. Many PRC mass charges in the Korean war were stopped cold by a small number of UN troops using the machine gun, and my all time favorite, a 25 lb keg of nails with a couple of sticks of dynamite in it. WoW!!! Instant bloodbath. Instant end of charge.

 

When the NK runs to the PRC for help to save themselves, the PRC will have a difficult time justifying their support after a senseless terror artillery attack on Seoul which has little military objective value considering the military targets that surround Seoul and are north of it.

 

I believe the Nk sole object in their current activities is to get the west to buy them off again. At some time in the near future, It will be a lot easier to just wipe them out as they are a nuisance that is taking valuable time from more important things. That's harsh and the NK citizens will suffer greatly. But, after a while even the most careful child will cut themselves if they are allowed to play with knives. Having a nuclear weapon does not make a country important. It makes them a target. If anyone doesn't believe that in a general nuclear exchange between the "superpowers" that every country that possesses nuclear weapons will not be hit also, they are naive. If I possess the capability to destroy the world 39 times over already, I am going to make sure that some little country is not going to have the means to influence events in the war's aftermath. But, I digress.

 

In the final analysis, I don't put much credibility in any threats NK makes against SK concerning artillery attacks against Seoul. It is a spite mission by people who would be be hunted down and executed for that action. Making war against civilians without military objective is called a war crime. What excuse will the leader of NK make at his war crimes trial when he orders NK artillery to attack civilian targets in Seoul in areas where there is no military objective. A hospital comes to mind. And if he is really short-sighted and uses NBC weapons on Seoul, the war crimes trial will be very short.

 

Bottom line: Artillery strikes against Seoul civilians is a bluff and an attempt at extortion of the west.

 

Just my opinion. Cheers!!!! V/R MistTiger

[Vindekarr]

Well, let's do a little breakdown of comparative military effectiveness, USA VS NK:

 

USA: One of the biggest armed forces on the planet, up-to-date equipment, highly trained, all-volunteer, good morale, enormous capacity for rapid strikes, and joint military force tactics.,

 

NK: Conscripts using technology from the 1950s, no recent combat experience, fanatical but weak morale, inherent terrain advantage, home field advantage, limited mobility and outdated training.

 

Armour: The US probably has it's biggest advantage in an armour battle; NK's armour is for the most part, between Korean War and middle Cold War era, while the US has recently done some improvements to it's vehicle lineup. In a one-to-one conflict the Abrams A2 is eons superior to an NK T-72; there's just no comparison. the Abram's has so many tactical advantages, that it just ain't far. It's a similar story with lighter armour, the Stryker and Bradley have a natural tactical edge over the BMP and BTR-80s used by the north. As ever, the US has the advantage of veterans aswell; it's military has been blooded, recently, and that makes a big difference.

 

Infantry: Once again, a battle of the 1970s VS the 2010s. I don't think that a Marine Corps VS KPA battle would last very long, in a lot of the footage I've seen, the KPA's guy don't even have ballistic armour-if that's true, then they'd begin to run out of troops, as fixing a flesh wound is a lot harder than fixing a wound in which the bullet hit vest.

 

Navy/Air. Well, this is where it get's absolutely comical; the US has a a large air force, equiped with very modern aircraft, while the North is armed with early era Sukhois, and 1960s Mikoyans. I doubt the US would lose a man in an air battle, similarly for naval conflict; guided missile destroyers and supercarriers shouldn't have much trouble defeating ships that use guns as their primary weapons. Add in enormous air-strike capacity on the US side, and the North is pretty much assed.

 

And that doesn't even begin to bring nukes into the picture; the US has one of the biggest arsenals of nukes on earth; ballistic missiles, suitcase nukes, conventional bombs, aircraft launched missiles, if they were serious, hey could probably make NK cease to exist as a landmass, and they have the range to do it from their mainland. They also have a strong anti-nuke defense grid based in Guam.

 

NK's nuke tech is roughly where the US was 70 years ago; very low yield, and with missiles that provoke national celebrations whenever they actually don't break. It's highly unlikely that the North could hit much further than the South, and with so many angry neighbours, I doubt they'd have long to regret it

 

This brings us to the biggest problem NK has right now: China. China's ticked off with them right now, "we will not tolerate troublemaking on our doorstep" and they have NK's power and foods supplies firmly in their grasp. China could essentially end any conflict before it started by simply threatening to pull the plug; NK has famine crises on a regular basis as it is, they wouldn't survive with China, and China doesn't seem to like the very much. Add in that Australia, South Korea, Japan, Australia's various Pacific Island buddies, and Russia are all getting tired of mr Kim's antics, it's highly doubtful this will go much further.

[Nintii]

_{It's such fun to sit and watch Kim Jong Un make a fool of himself ... pointing his little gun and go ping, ping, ping ...}

_{for me the best part is watching his adoring (or else get shot) fans hurl themselves into the waves and cry out}

_{for their beloved leader not to go from their beloved shores.}

 

_{No, go back, go back my beloved people follow me not into this freezing ocean ... But we loveth thee O master Kim ...}

_{I say let them flagellate themselves into a frenzy ... and let's watch ... soon it's going to be make or break for them}

_{(whether it's Kim or his generals who are stirring .......).}

_{In all probability they're going to do something idiotic in order to save face.}

_{And if China displays any wisdom they would step in and help comrade Kim to save face before he does the dastardly}

_{deed of dumbness.}

_{It's in their best interest ... because like it or not the US is committed to SK and if China does not want the US and SK a}

_{stones throw their border, well then yes ... have a parlay with comrade Kim.}

Edited April 8, 2013 by Nintii

[Harbringe]

In the event of war , the initial stages will see the exchange of thousands if not 10s of thousands of projectiles of various sorts , including possible nuclear armaments , no ABM systems on the planet will be able to deal with such an exchange. Seoul (and other area's) is destroyed or vaporized and Japan has taken major hits , cause if your the North and your at war with the South and US , your also at war with Japan , cause thats where much of the US support infrastructure is. Japan would be forced to respond and China would respond to Japan . Its that simple , a perfect recipe for a regional war , possibly becoming a thermonuclear regional war , which leads into global scenario's.

 

In regards to China , they may not like the regime of NK and the problems that come with such a dysfunctional state , but they like all other nations of this world have their own strategic interests and the line dividing North and South Korea is one and you have to ask yourself despite the problems they have with North Korea would they prefer to have that strategic line halfway down the Korean pennisula or at the border of China itself should the North fall . Or put it this way , If the US had the choice of having one such strategic line halfway down Mexico or at the border of Texas , Arizona and California , what would they choose . If you got any common sense you already know the answer to that.

 

As for NK and its new leader Kim Jong Un , there is no doubt that he has grown up in a country and had a father and grandfather that pounded fear and paranoia into him all his life and is likely way in over his head , dealing with this and the level of crazy that exists within his country , well all I can say to that is my mother worked as a nurse for many years and at times would take shifts at the asylum and they had this saying "take care not to do things that poke the crazy people".

Well when your putting sanctions on a country in which things are already pretty desperate , moving nuclear capable stealth bombers into range or carrying out yearly invasion exercises of the North with South Korea (right off the coast of Nk) , that is poking the crazy people and is counter productive.

 

One country that has been trying to be productive is Russia , and despite what some have intimated , Russia has come to realize that its no longer the world of yester year in which it was East vs West , Soviets vs US , but that there is a multiplicity of interests and counter vailing interests at play and has become too dangerous with so many moving parts wherein a mistake or miscalculation could cause things to spiral out of control before anyone could do anything to arrest it. So they took the steps of withdrawing from the treaty with NK wherein they were obligated to come to the aid of NK were a war to commence .So when they withdrew from this they began to put forth the idea (behind the scenes) of a nuclear free Korea , in which the Korea's would be united under the South Korean government , all nuclear weapons would be removed and all US forces would leave the pennisula . China though commiting to nothing did say it was an interesting proposal , but the US immediately nixed it and it has never been raised again. Why cause the US has a strategic policy of containment of China or as they like to call it now "the pivot to the East" . So the immovable object (China) meets the invincible force (US) over something called strategic interests.

[HeyYou]

And lil' kim steps up the rhetoric, and danger of war another notch. He pull the workers out of the kaesong industrial complex. Personally, I think S. Korea should have shut it down when the north refused entry to the southies..... kimmie gets points for this one.....

 

Trouble we have here is, kim is painting himself into a corner. He is going to run out of threats, and various other gestures, and is only going to be left with one final option. Starting a shooting war, or, being seen as an ineffective leader, losing 'face', and finding his countrymen turning against him. Of course, for all we know, that might have been the plan all along. Get lil' kim to ratchet up tensions, only to stage a coup, take him down, and then start explaining that this 'wasn't their idea at all, it was all him', and now they want to go back to negotiations, and would you please help us rebuild our country.....

 

It that happens... the international community will swallow it hook, line, and sinker.... and money will rain from the skies. At least, for a while. Then, we will be right back where we started.

 

Is there going to be war there? Pretty good chance at this point. Is N. Korea going to win? Not a snoballs chance in hell. Of course, if China comes in on N. Korea's side.... that's a whole nother kettle of fish, and would pretty much spell doom for assorted economies.... and would generate a LOT of dead folks. I really don't think that is what China wants though.

 

Now, we have various pundits, and ex-government employees all over the talk show circuit.... most of them are fed up with kim, and his bluster, and think 'something' needs to be done. Just what that something is though.... no one really wants to say.

 

At this point, I think our best option is: Do Nothing. Let kim rant and rave, and see what his next move is. We can't be seen as the agressors here. Kim has to cut his own throat, publicly, before we can really take any action at all.....

[Nintii]

Yay, land of the flying dogs ... go Kimi go ... not Raikkonen the othe one ... with the cool hair cut ...

 

Who let the dogs out ah-woof, woof, woof, woof ...

 

http://youtu.be/wcJlUisWmjM

Edited April 8, 2013 by Nintii

[Ironman5000]

OH MY LOOK AT ALL THE SCARY ARSENAL THEY HAVE!...hold on a sec... ;D

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/03/28/article-2299859-18F60C5C000005DC-208_964x514.jpg

Photoshopped military maneuvers?!

 

Look it up, they actually did this :rolleyes: bless 'em!