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Nexus/FO4 site activity, now vs. November/December. Why so dramatic?


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Back in November/December, good mods that hit the hotfiles would regularly have 10,000+ endorsements (in my case, True Storms is almost at 30,000.) But now most of the Hot Files have 100 or so. Did that many people really drop FO4 that fast?

 

By contrast, through 2015, it was not uncommon for a popular Skyrim mod to get 10,000 endorsements or so. Again, using True Storms as an example, which was released in March 2015, is at 13,000 currently...

 

I understand that most people who bought the game in Nov/Dec played through it, played with some mods, and probably put it away until the DLC, and the next wave of CK-based mods are out, but it seems like a pretty huge "crash" in a short period of time.

 

Was Skyrim like this early on? I am a huge analytics/data nerd, so this kind of information is like porn to me. It would be awesome to see some graphs during the first year of release for Skyrim compared to FO4 to get a pulse for how the mod user community behaves.

 

Cheers :)

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I think it was China's export drop of 25% this February2. The Butterballfly effect.

 

If you think about it carefully (which I try not to do, but my background processes does) the average person today has a shorter attention span than a goldfish1. Just like hook ups, it's right swipe, play and go away. Until there's something interesting to change the game, like hopefully the water DLC will do, the average person is deluged in a sea of information news propaganda and personal bs. That a game moves anyone at all, is a miracle. Try it, try to motivate ppl to do something. It's virtually impossible. That's why the ppl that can, get paid so much, they are super rare and valuable to ppl that need to influence others.

 

@fadingsignal Ty for True Storms, that was a really good mod.

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1http://time.com/3858309/attention-spans-goldfish/

2http://fortune.com/2016/03/08/chinas-exports-crash-21-but-hold-on/

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Established game with proper modding tools versus a game with pieced together unofficial tools, and no DLC release, so yes there's going to be a big difference in activity.

 

That definitely makes sense. I think for me, it's just extra interesting because I wasn't part of the community when Skyrim launched (I didn't get involved with modding until early 2014) and was honestly surprised to see so much mod activity so soon during/after FO4's launch, considering the factors you mentioned (unofficial tools and such.)

 

Again, I'm more curious from a behavior and analytics standpoint, not necessarily a "omg where did the users go?" perspective. I know they'll be back in big numbers! Just curious how/when that tends to happen. I should have made that clearer in the title instead of "why so dramatic?" -- poor wording! :D

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I've flirted with getting a Google Analytics certification (or something like that Idr, and it was last week...the test is free to take), but screw that. I bet the Nexus guys have all the data necessary to tell you by gender, age, moon cycle, weekday or weekend, maybe even before or after ice cream what their population has been doing and interested in thru time and across multiple games.

 

Nexus is a gold mine of big data. Oh god, SAS and SPSS thoughts...go away! If they don't make a boat load of money from the game publishers, which I suspect they do given their super strong stand on protecting publisher's content, they are ding a lings.

 

Ask the moderators fadingsignal. Now that you made me think about it.

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It really is an ebb and flo of traffic. Skyrim did a similar thing believe it or not. Perhaps not so dramatically but it did. Then It has ups and downs while I have been all the old games have nice re-surges periodically. I bet once "official" tools are out someone could make a algorithm for it. Having a history degree I wouldn't try but....I can almost sense an eddy in the wash.

 

It will come back. An initial mad rush when the GECK 2 Electric Boogaloo, then they will all run away again when they realize it will take a bit of time for some mods to come out that they are looking for, then again when they do...etc etc.

 

So take heart...the goldfish will come back because, despite what people think, they are trainable and they know where their yum yummie mods are located, it just takes a while for them to stop looking at their own reflection long enough to get back to it again.

 

 

Edit: weird Jeff kinda brought forth my math idea there and ninja'd it a bit----and as a former moderator I have no idea what weird magic number dance they have. PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!!!

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Back in November/December, good mods that hit the hotfiles would regularly have 10,000+ endorsements (in my case, True Storms is almost at 30,000.) But now most of the Hot Files have 100 or so. Did that many people really drop FO4 that fast?

 

By contrast, through 2015, it was not uncommon for a popular Skyrim mod to get 10,000 endorsements or so. Again, using True Storms as an example, which was released in March 2015, is at 13,000 currently...

 

I understand that most people who bought the game in Nov/Dec played through it, played with some mods, and probably put it away until the DLC, and the next wave of CK-based mods are out, but it seems like a pretty huge "crash" in a short period of time.

 

Was Skyrim like this early on? I am a huge analytics/data nerd, so this kind of information is like porn to me. It would be awesome to see some graphs during the first year of release for Skyrim compared to FO4 to get a pulse for how the mod user community behaves.

 

Cheers :smile:

 

BTW it never was 10k+ . It was 250 - 300 to get in hot files. True Storms is an exception, it hit hot files in the firs day it was uploaded.

Now most people waits fro CK release and new DLC ;)

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We share our statistics for this very reason.

 

Compare Skyim's launch with Fallout 4's (you'll have to jump between the years).

 

The inherent issue is that Skyrim's SDK came out in February, and Fallout 4's won't be out until April. The conclusion is that Fallout 4 mods were more popular than Skyrim's at launch, but the lack of an SDK release in February has stunted the popularity of the modding scene this month. It awaits to be seen what, if any, the spike will be like in April, which will no doubt also be affected by Bethesda.net and their own hosting solution for mods.

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